'Thousands' desert Somalia forces


Medeshi Dec 12, 2008
'Thousands' desert Somalia forces
More than 80% of Somalia's soldiers and police - about 15,000 members - have deserted, some taking weapons, uniforms and vehicles, the UN says.
The head of the UN monitoring group on Somalia, Dumisani Kumalo, said Islamist insurgents got many of their weapons and ammunition from the deserters.
The head of the Somali police rejected the UN's report.
Meanwhile, the African Union wants peacekeepers from Burundi and Uganda to stay when Ethiopian troops leave soon.
In the UN report, Mr Kumalo, the South African ambassador, also said most of the Somali government's security budget - supposedly 70% of its total budget - disappeared through corruption.
The Somali police chief, Abdi Awale, said all the money had been properly spent, and only a few soldiers and police officers had deserted.
Peacekeeper pledge
With Somalia's fragile transitional government facing a growing insurgency, the African Union's top diplomat said he hoped the 3,400 peacekeepers currently stationed in Mogadishu would stay - despite claims by the Ethiopian prime minister that they would leave.
"We have asked the African countries to increase their participation in Somalia, asked the UNSC (UN Security Council) to join us there, and to the AU partners to help us financing this force," Jean Ping said.
"A withdrawal from Somalia is something we cannot accept, not only the AU, but also the rest of the world," he said, according to AFP news agency.
Mr Ping's comments come in response to a statement in the Ethiopian parliament by Prime Minister Meles Zenawi that African Union peacekeepers wanted to leave Somalia.
The AU force, from Uganda and Burundi, had been expected to stay and even beef up its presence to make up for the planned Ethiopian pull-out at the end of the month.
Ethiopia has said Burundi and Uganda have asked its army to help their peacekeepers pull-out, but Burundi and Uganda have denied this.
The United Nations Security Council is due to consider a US proposal to send a full UN peacekeeping force to Somalia - something the AU has been pressing for.
Ethiopia troops intervened two years ago to oust Islamist forces from the capital, Mogadishu.
But different Islamist factions are again in control of much of southern Somalia.
Story from BBC NEWS:

Teen disappears: 'Mom, I'm in Somalia'


Medesh Dec 12, 2008
Teen disappears: 'Mom, I'm in Somalia'
His mother spoke to her son just a few days ago over the phone. To her shock, she says, he told her he was no longer in the United States.
"Mom, I'm in Somalia! Don't worry about me; I'm OK," the mother quoted her son as saying.
Details of how he got there and what has transpired in his life since his November disappearance are sketchy. His mother, who agreed to be identified only as Amina, says her son has clearly changed.
"He was different," she said of his attitude on the phone. Watch a report on missing Somalis »
Hassan is one of more than a dozen young men of Somali descent -- many U.S. citizens -- to have disappeared from Minneapolis over the past six months, according to federal law enforcement authorities. Authorities say young men have also disappeared in Boston, Massachusetts; Portland, Maine; and Columbus, Ohio.
"A number of young Somali men have traveled from throughout the United States to include Minneapolis to Somalia, potentially to fight," said FBI Special Agent E.K. Wilson.
Amina speaks about her son in the past tense, almost as if he were dead. She worries about him night and day.
"Now that he's gone, I can't sleep," she said. Watch Amina talk about her son »
The fear among the Somali community in Minneapolis is that their young men are being preyed upon and recruited to fight jihad, or holy war, in Somalia. Some have even called to tell their parents not to look for them.
"Those I talked to were completely shocked and dismayed as to what happened. They were completely in disbelief," said Omar Jamal of the Somali Justice Advocacy Center, based in St. Paul, Minnesota.
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The shock is magnified by what happened to one of them: Authorities say a 27-year-old named Shirwa Ahmed blew himself up in an apparent suicide bombing in northern Somalia in October.
Amina doesn't like to think about that and refuses to believe that her son could be learning similar tactics.
She and her son lived in an apartment along the Mississippi River in a thriving Somali neighborhood in Minneapolis. Hassan's father died years ago, and she raised him as a single parent. Hassan's other siblings have all moved out.
"I'm feeling empty tonight, like I have [nothing]," she said.
Amina says she now forgets to cook. It's gotten so bad that when she's out shopping, she'll often feel that her son is back home again. She'll quickly return, only to remember he's still away.
She struggles when she recalls how smart he is and how he was studying to become a doctor. Holding up a copy of his high school class schedule, which includes Advanced Placement courses in mathematics, chemistry and biology, she says Hassan was to graduate in May.
He wanted to attend college in Arizona, and he wanted her to move there with him.
"He was planning to be a physician assistant. He told me to move ... to Arizona because he said in Arizona, we can get [those jobs] as soon as possible after graduating," she said. "His expectations were high."
She added, "He doesn't like to fight. Sometimes, he was a comedian. He likes to laugh or to say things that make you laugh. He was a very kind person."
Amina says her son has called a few times, most recently Saturday. She says that each time, it feels as if her son is being watched or listened to by at least one or two other men, because she can hear other voices in the background.
"It's like a kidnapped person. And he has no freedom, because if he said, 'Mom, I have to leave here; I have no life,' then they would kill him."
The question that plagues Amina and just about everyone in Minneapolis' Somali community is: How could these young men who were well-educated and who stayed out of trouble in the United States wind up in war-torn Somalia, possibly as fighters?
In Hassan's case, his mother fled the nation when she was pregnant with him, and they eventually came to the United States to escape the country's violence. She says her son's demeanor changed a couple months before he disappeared. He became more withdrawn, and she doesn't know why.
Other local Somalis have voiced concern that, because a large number of the men missing attended the same Islamic center after school, it could have played a role.
Amina does not believe the center itself played a role but thinks there are certain people associated with it who may be involved.
On Monday, representatives of the mosque, Abubakar As-Saddique Islamic Center, held a news conference to address the issue. The mosque's attorney, Mahir Sherif, strongly denied any allegations that it is connected to the men's disappearance, saying the center "has not and will not recruit for any political cause."
"I haven't talked to any of them [since the stories came out]. I haven't seen any of them fighting," Sherif said. "I mean, I would be speculating. I'm hearing what everybody else hears."
Amina keeps hoping her son will return and that somebody in the community will come forward with more information.
"I'm asking for those who took my son or know anything about it to come forward. I'm asking you kindly to help and facilitate how to make possible to return [him]. Most sincerely."

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Puppet government near collapse in Somalia


Medeshi Dec 11 ,2008
Puppet government near collapse in Somalia
By Abayomi Azikiwe Editor, Pan-African News Wire
The Ethiopian government on Nov. 25 announced it was withdrawing its military forces from neighboring Somalia. This represents a defeat for the foreign policy aims of Washington, which encouraged the government of Meles Zenawi to invade Somalia in December 2006.
(Map : Green : Somalia)
The Ethiopian military force is now down to some 2,000 troops from an initial 12,000. The Ethiopians are supposed to be replaced by 8,000 African Union “peacekeeping” forces.
However, only 2,600 AU troops, supplied by the U.S.-backed countries of Uganda and Burundi, have been deployed in the capital of Mogadishu. Other nations such as Nigeria, Ghana, Malawi and Kenya, which had pledged to send troops, have not deployed any.
In a candid statement, President Abdullahi Yusuf of the U.S.-backed Transitional Federal Government in Somalia, which is bolstered militarily by the Ethiopian army, said the regime is “on the verge of collapse.” (Reuters, Nov. 16) Fighters from the al-Shabaab organization have not only taken control of vast areas of the country, but are openly challenging the puppet forces inside Mogadishu.
“Most of the country is in the hands of Islamists and we are only in Mogadishu and Baidoa, where there is daily war,” said Yusuf, speaking before an assembly of 100 Somali legislators in Kenya.
Yusuf spoke about the fragility of the TFG government, saying: “We, ourselves, are behind the problems and we are accountable in this world and in the hereafter. Islamists have been capturing all towns and now control Elasha. It is every man for himself if the government collapses.”
In a further sign of disarray, Yusuf accused Prime Minister Nur Hassan Hussein of the political problems within the regime. The government has failed to appoint a new cabinet since the previous one was dissolved months ago.
Resistance forces advance
As the TFG bickered over cabinet seats within an ineffective regime, reports from the ground in Somalia indicated that the al-Shabaab resistance movement had taken control of the port town of Barawe, located approximately 110 miles from the capital. During the week of Nov. 10, the movement seized the town of Merka, where a strategic airstrip is located.
In Mogadishu, where the TFG claims it still maintains control, al-Shabaab fighters operate openly, carrying out recruitment drives and training exercises. The organization is already presenting itself as a parallel government to the U.S.-backed TFG.
The resistance forces also consist of groups within the Union of Islamic Courts that are negotiating agreements with the TFG in Djibouti. This faction, led by Sheik Hassan Dahir Aweys, has been described as more “moderate” than al-Shabaab, which was the youth wing of the UIC during its burgeoning period of influence prior to the Ethiopian invasion.
Another prominent Islamic leader, Sheik Hassan Dahir Aweys, who was also a part of the UIC, has rejected talks with the TFG until the Ethiopians withdraw. The U.S. government has accused Aweys of supporting “terrorism” and has actively discouraged the TFG from reaching any agreement with his forces.
An article in the Nov. 24 Chicago Tribune by correspondent Paul Salopek points out the central role of the U.S. government in the current situation in Somalia.
“It is a standoff war in which the Pentagon lobs million-dollar cruise missiles into a famine-haunted African wasteland the size of Texas, hoping to kill lone terror suspects who might be dozing in candlelit huts. The raids’ success or failure is almost impossible to verify,” writes Salopek.
“It is a covert war in which the CIA has recruited gangs of unsavory warlords to hunt down and kidnap Islamic militants and ... secretly imprison them offshore, aboard U.S. warships.”
Salopek states that U.S. efforts in this Horn of Africa nation are bound to result in another defeat: “It is a policy time bomb that will be inherited by the incoming Obama administration: a little-known front in the global war on terrorism that Washington appears to be losing, if it hasn’t already been lost.”
The article quotes Ken Menkhaus, a leading Somalia scholar at Davidson College in North Carolina: “Somalia is one of the great unrecognized U.S. policy failures since 9/11. By any rational metric, what we’ve ended up with there today is the opposite of what we wanted.”
Will policy change under Obama?
It is not yet clear whether the incoming U.S. administration will make any significant changes in its military policy toward the Horn of Africa. However, President-elect Barack Obama’s selection of several top-level Clinton administration figures indicates a continuing reliance on military force in the region.
Bill Clinton inherited the invasion of Somalia initiated by the George H.W. Bush administration in December 1992. The situation grew tense during 1993, leading to coordinated resistance by the Somali masses that forced the U.S. to withdraw from the country in 1994.
This Nov. 20 the U.N. Security Council passed a unanimous resolution to impose sanctions against so-called “pirates, arms smugglers and perpetrators of instability in Somalia.” (AP, Nov. 21)
The council’s “quick approval of the British-sponsored resolution was followed by an open meeting on the deteriorating situation in Somalia—both on land and at sea off its nearly 3,900-km coastline, which includes some of the world’s most important shipping routes.”
Deputy U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. Rosemary DiCarlo appealed for immediate measures to address the situation in the Horn of Africa, which is threatening an Oct. 26 ceasefire agreement between some Islamic groups and the TFG. The more militant resistance forces such as al-Shabaab are not party to the Oct. 26 agreement.
DiCarlo called for strengthening the 3,450 African Union troops in Mogadishu, supposedly so much-needed food aid can be delivered to the population—the same excuse given for the U.S. intervention in 1992.
DiCarlo said that if 6,000 AU forces from various countries cannot be mobilized, then the U.N. should intervene directly in Somalia.
A greater U.N., U.S. or E.U. military involvement in the Horn of Africa will prove disastrous for these entities. The Somali people have a proven history of successful resistance against imperialist intervention.
The peoples of the U.S. and the E.U. have no desire to see their governments drawn into a protracted struggle in this region. The anti-war forces in these countries must oppose military intervention and uphold the right of self-determination and sovereignty for the Somali people and other nations throughout the Horn of Africa.
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Pirates cashed in $120 mln in 2008: UN


Medeshi
Thursday, December 11, 2008
NAIROBI (AFP) — Somali pirates have raked in more than 120 million dollars in ransom money since the start of 2008, the United Nations' top envoy for Somalia said at an international conference here on Thursday.
Ahmedou Ould Abdallah said pirates had attacked 32 ships since October alone and warned the 140 delegates gathered in Nairobi that "the threat of piracy cannot and should not be underestimated anymore."
"They may have collected over 120 million dollars (91.3 million euros) for this year, with total impunity," he said.
"This unprecedented rise in piracy is threatening the very freedom and safety of maritime trade routes, affecting not only Somalia and the region, but also a large percentage of world trade," he said.
Ould Abdallah also said it was key to identify and target the financiers of the pirates boarding the ships, most of whom are former coastguards and seasonal fishermen.
Handout image from Britain's Ministry of Defence shows boats from HMS Cumberland intercepting a suspect pirate dhow
"Countries that can do so should trace, track and freeze the assets of the backers of the pirates," the UN envoy said.
"They deserve to be brought to justice and prevented from harming their country, its economy and reputation. Impunity and lack of respect for human rights have no doubt encouraged piracy," he added.
Pirates have redistributed ransom money to ensure the local coastal communities' support and have also reinvested in better equipment, such as bigger engines for their speedboats and satellite phones.
The pirates holding the Sirius Star, a 330-metre (1100-foot) Saudi super-tanker carrying two million barrels of crude, even have a money-counting machine should the 3.5 million dollars they have demanded come in cash.
But a maritime official in Kenya argued that only a fraction of the ransom money paid for the release of ships goes through Somalia.
"Most of it ends up in Nairobi, Mombasa, the United Kingdom, Canada etc.," the official said on condition of anonymity. "Ransom money goes through Kenya so it means that the security system here is part of the problem."
He argued that if the international community wanted to apply pressure on the backers of Somali piracy, they should start looking in Nairobi, a key hub for Somali trade and business.
"Harardhere is not a pirate den, the real pirate den is Nairobi," the official said. Harardhere is the port north of Mogadishu near where the Sirius Star and other hijacked ships are being held. SOURCE: AFP, Thursday, December 11, 2008

SPECIAL REPORT: A Marshall Plan for Africa

Medeshi Dec 11, 2008
SPECIAL REPORT: A Marshall Plan for Africa
MANAMA -- Piracy in the Horn of Africa has recently grabbed the front pages of newspapers around the world after Somali pirates successfully hijacked several cargo ships, including a Saudi-owned super tanker, the Sirius Star, with $100 million dollars worth of oil on board.
(Photo: A French anti-piracy unit undergoes a naval exercise in the Mediterranean Sea near Toulon, southern France in preparation to tackle pirates off the coast of Somalia who have sown panic throughout the shipping world and caused some firms to reroute to the Cape of Good Hope - hiking costs and causing delays . )
These modern-day buccaneers operating in the troubled waters off the coast of Somalia and Yemen, have extorted what is no less than kings' ransoms in exchange for the safe return of ships, crews and cargoes.
As of this publishing the pirates continue to hold a number of vessels and their crews.
Newspapers and television stations are not the only ones following developments in the Horn of Africa. The recent spike in piracy has also aroused the attention of security and military officials around the world, particularly after intelligence sources began linking some of them to Islamist terrorist groups affiliated with al-Qaida.
In the last 12 months more than 120 ships, according to the World Maritime Union, have been attacked by pirates and about 40 – in other words one out of every three ships attacked has been successfully hijacked.
Indeed, piracy in the Horn of Africa is such a hot topic these days that it is piquing the interest of the world's top security experts. The London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies is devoting an entire session to studying this new phenomenon and to discuss ways to successfully deter modern piracy, during the institute's annual symposium on Gulf security that will be held in Bahrain Dec. 12-15.
The West in general, and the European Union and the United States in particular, were somewhat slow to react to the threat. This delay allowed the pirates to become bolder and more daring. It has also allowed them to acquire more sophisticated weapons with the ransom they received.
But now, after months of failing to respond to the challenge posed by these pirates, the EU has finally begun to take action.
As of Monday, the European Union launched a new initiative in the area, Operation Atlanta, a joint effort by its 27 member nations. This was the first naval mission of its kind, the aim of which is to try and eradicate this new plague and growing threat to international shipping.
By no means will the mission be an easy one, given the size of the area in question – three times the size of France – and the means at their disposal to police that zone.
The initial task force counts only six warships and three maritime patrol planes.
Britain and France, two former colonial powers in Africa have taken the lead in the fight against modern day piracy, along with Greece, a country where a high percentage of the word's merchant ships are registered, providing the country with an important revenue stream. Germany and Italy are sending gunboats and France and Spain are contributing fighter planes from a nearby French military base in Djibouti still used by the French Foreign Legion.
So challenging is the task that the European Union is asking non-EU members to participate in the joint naval task force.
While no doubt this is a positive development - and it should inject some much needed confidence among vessels of the world's merchant marine and pleasure cruises, both of which have been the target of international piracy - action should have been taken months ago, when the problem was still manageable and when the pirates were not as well armed and equipped.
The fact that these hijackers were able to make fortunes now gives them additional clout and resources. A few million dollars goes a long way in the Horn of Africa, one of the poorest regions on earth.
Pirates know how to invest the money they steal. A good portion of it is "reinvested" in the tools of their trade.
Modern seaborne plunderers are equipped with speedboats fitted with powerful outboard engines, often more powerful than those used by the authorities. They are also equipped with automatic weapons, light artillery and sophisticated navigational equipment.
Now if that was not bad enough, according to intelligence sources, many pirates also have links with militant Islamist organizations.
Of course brute military force alone is not the solution and will only solve the problem temporarily, if that. What is needed is a mini-Marshall plan to help develop the region, in turn offering Somalis a viable alternative to joining marauding gangs of criminals, be they on land or at sea.
Cracking down on piracy and crime is indeed a must, however logic demands that the thousands of unemployed and aimless youth in the Horn of Africa be offered a way out of their misery.

World's neglect of Somalia to blame for piracy, say diplomats


World's neglect of Somalia to blame for piracy, say diplomats
Africa News
Dec 11, 2008,
Nairobi - The world's long-term neglect of conflict-stricken Somalia has created the current boom in piracy in the Gulf of Aden, diplomats and UN officials said Wednesday as the second day of an international conference on piracy began in Nairobi.
'The Somali leadership ... and the international community have neglected Somalia,' UN Special Representative for Somalia Ahmedou Ould-Abdallah said. 'Piracy is one of the most important consequences of this neglect.'
Over 140 delegates from 45 countries - including ambassadors, ministers and technical experts - have gathered in the Kenyan capital to look at how to increase cooperation in fighting Somali pirates, in particular the thorny legal aspects of the issue.
The increase in piracy this year has coincided with a degeneration of the security situation in Somalia, where the Transitional Federal Government is crumbling under a fierce Islamist insurgency.
Ould-Abdallah said 32 vessels had been attacked in the last two months alone, with 12 being successfully seized.
Around 15 ships and 300 crew members are in the hands of pirates, including a Saudi supertanker carrying crude oil worth 100 million dollars and a Ukrainian ship carrying a cargo of 33 tanks and other military equipment.
The surge in piracy has prompted increased patrols along the Somali coast by the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, Russia, India and France.
The EU on Tuesday also formally launched operation 'Atalanta,' a year-long mission relying on up to six warships and two or three maritime patrol aircraft at any one time
However, Kenyan Foreign Minister Moses Wetangula, opening the conference on behalf of President Mwai Kibaki, said that until the world addressed the root cause of the piracy - insecurity on the ground - no progress would be made.
'If the major powers paid one-tenth of their responsibility to Somalia, compared to the 100 per cent paid to Iraq, Afghanistan or the former Yugoslavia ... we wouldn't be here today,' he read from a statement attributed to Kibaki.
Piracy in Somali has its roots in the early 1990s, when illegal fishing trawlers and ships dumping toxic waste took advantage of the collapse of the regime of dictator Mohamed Siad Barre in 1991 to target Somali waters.
Fishermen began seizing the foreign ships, saying they were defending their coastline. Now piracy in Somalia has morphed into a multimillion-dollar industry, with gunmen commanding huge ransoms for the ships they seize.
Ould-Abdallah said pirates may have made over 120 million dollars from ransoms this year alone.
Andrew Mwangura, head of the Kenyan branch of the East African Seafarers' Association, on Tuesday called for dialogue with the pirates to address their grievances.
While delegates at the conference said that the insecurity in Somalia had to be addressed, calls for dialogue with the young gunmen were rejected.
'These other things like illegal fishing and toxic dumping need to be addressed, but it is no excuse for the behaviour of these gangsters,' German Ambassador to Kenya Walter Lindner told Deutsche Presse-Agentur dpa on the sidelines of the conference.
Somalia has been embroiled in chaos ever since Barre's ouster, but the crisis has deepened since Ethiopian forces helped kick out a hardline Islamist regime for the last half of 2006, sparking the insurgency.
At least 10,000 civilians have died and over a million have fled since early 2007. The insurgents have made huge gains and are now perched on the edge of Somali capital Mogadishu.
Somali President Abdullahi Yusuf Ahmed, in a statement read out at the start of the conference, called for UN peacekeepers to be deployed to help an undermanned and overwhelmed African Union force.
'Somalia has been abandoned by the whole world,' the statement said. 'It is high time (the world) examines its conscience and comes to rescue Somalia now.'


Sharif back in Mogadishu as death toll hits 16,210

MOGADISHU , Somalia's moderate Islamist leader Sheikh Sharif Ahmed returned to Mogadishu for the first time in two years on Wednesday and a local rights group said fighting had killed 16,210 civilians since then.
Security was tightened in the capital as Sharif, who is in talks with the country's Western-backed interim government, was rushed to a hotel in a northern district of the city surrounded by government troops and Islamist militiamen.
The U.N. special envoy to Somalia, Ahmedou Ould-Abdallah, said Sharif's return was "most welcome", while the sight of gunmen who used to shoot at each other now working side by side cheered many of the capital's war-weary residents.
"His enemies have welcomed him as a friend today ... Sharif's presence will minimise the violence, even if it doesn't end it completely," said 44-year-old local Hassan Garaad.
"Islamists wearing turbans and soldiers with uniforms together in one place is a peaceful sign for Mogadishu."
Sharif was one of two main leaders of a sharia courts group driven from the capital by government soldiers and their Ethiopian military allies at the start of last year.
ISLAMISTS BATTLE
Sharif's return brought a rare ray of hope to some Somalis. But experts say he has little influence over Islamist hardliners who have steadily gained ground to control most of the south, and are camped on the outskirts of Mogadishu.
Exposing splits in the Islamist ranks, the latest battle between two rebel factions killed at least four people days ahead of a planned Ethiopian military withdrawal that could leave the capital open for an insurgent assault.
Witnesses said hardline al Shabaab fighters clashed with more moderate Islamic Courts militia on Tuesday in El Garas, 50 km (30 miles) southeast of the central town of Dusamareb. Both sides fired heavy machine guns and rocket-propelled grenades.
Spokesman from neither side were immediately available.
Addis Ababa has become increasingly frustrated by the financial cost, by feuding between its leaders, and the absence of a serious, international effort to pacify Somalia.
Now Ethiopia says it will pull out its troops by the end of December, leaving a probable power vacuum and more bloodshed.
The Mogadishu-based Elman Peace and Human Rights Organisation has been tracking the casualties since Islamist insurgents launched a rebellion against Somalia's interim government and its Ethiopian military allies early in 2007.
Elman said 7,574 civilians had been killed so far in 2008, adding to 8,636 killed the year before. In a report, it said nearly 29,000 people had been wounded over that two-year period.
The Islamists' main weakness is the rift between hardliners such as Shabaab -- which the United States accuses of having links to al Qaeda -- and the more moderate elements such as Sharif's.
Presidential spokesman Hussein Mohamed Mohamud told Reuters Sharif was a peace-loving leader who would change the situation in the country for the better. "He will also tell the truth to Somalis who were confused and disturbed by al Shabaab," he said.

Ethiopia says AU peacekeepers to quit Somalia too

Medeshi
Ethiopia says AU peacekeepers to quit Somalia too
Thu 11 Dec 2008
By Tsegaye Tadesse
ADDIS ABABA (Reuters) - African Union peacekeepers in Somalia have asked Ethiopian troops planning to leave the country at the end of the year to help them quit Mogadishu too, Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles Zenawi said on Thursday.
There are 3,200 soldiers from Uganda and Burundi guarding strategic sites in the capital, which has been the focus of a two-year Iraq-style insurgency by Islamist rebels battling the Horn of Africa nation's Western-backed interim government.

The withdrawal of the foreign forces could leave the door open for an insurgent assault.
Ethiopian troops have been supporting the administration, but Meles has become increasingly frustrated by feuding among its leaders, the financial cost of the operation and the absence of any serious, international effort to pacify Somalia.
Addis Ababa says it will withdraw its forces at the end of December, and Meles said the AU soldiers wanted to leave too.
"The African Union, Uganda and Burundi have all asked us to stay behind and provide protection for the safe passage of their troops," Meles told parliament.
"The AU troops in Somalia are our comrades in arms, we have responsibility to provide safe passage during their withdrawal."
Ethiopia's decision to pull out was final, he said, and he blamed the international community for failing to fund the AU mission, AMISOM, to its planned strength of 8,000 troops.
An Ethiopian withdrawal could create a power vacuum and leave Mogadishu vulnerable to a takeover by the Islamists, who now control most of the south and central regions and are camped on the outskirts of the city.
The ill-equipped AU troops would not be able to stop that, even if it were in their mandate. Ugandan and Burundian military spokesmen were not immediately available to comment.
SHARIF CONDEMNS FIGHTING
Some residents were cheered on Wednesday when moderate Islamist leader Sheikh Sharif Ahmed returned to Mogadishu for the first time in two years. His opposition faction is in U.N.-led talks with President Abdullahi Yusuf's government.
But the rebels remain deeply divided, and witnesses said clashes between other Islamist gunmen and pro-government forces killed at least 10 people in the city early on Thursday.
"We attacked five government bases and even neared the presidential palace this morning," Sheikh Abdirahman Isse Adow, spokesman for the Islamic Courts, told Reuters.
Experts say Sharif has little influence over Islamist hardliners including the al Shabaab group, which the United States accuses of having links to Osama bin Laden's al Qaeda.
At a news conference, Sharif condemned the bloodshed and urged the opposition to unite.
"All Islamists must stop fighting and resolve their differences at the negotiating table," he said. "We are very disappointed with those who claim jihad and attack Ethiopian troops who have already agreed to pull out."
A prominent Islamist hardliner, Sheikh Hassan Dahir Aweys, said Sharif's return proved he had joined the "enemies".
"This will only fuel war and bring more harm," Aweys told Reuters by telephone from Asmara. "You saw there was more fighting in Mogadishu this morning and we shall not cease it."
A local rights group says the insurgency had killed 16,210 civilians since the start of last year, when allied Somali-Ethiopian forces drove the Islamists from the capital.
About 1 million people have been uprooted, and 3.2 million -- more than a third of the population -- need emergency aid. The chaos has also helped fuel an explosion of piracy offshore.

Somalia backs U.S. plan to hunt pirates

Medeshi
Somalia backs U.S. plan to hunt pirates
By Abdi Sheikh
Thursday, December 11, 2008; 7:48 AM
MOGADISHU (Reuters) - Somalia's government has welcomed a call by the United States for countries to have U.N. authority to hunt down Somali pirates on land as well as pursue them off the coast of the Horn of Africa nation.
(Photo: A. Yussuf shopping at a mall in central London )
A surge in piracy this year in the busy Gulf of Aden and Indian Ocean off Somalia has driven up insurance costs, brought the gangs tens of millions of dollars in ransoms, and prompted foreign navies to rush to the area to protect shipping.
Diplomats at the United Nations said the U.S. delegation there had circulated a draft resolution on piracy for the Security Council to vote on next week.
A draft text seen by Reuters says countries with permission from Somalia's government "may take all necessary measures ashore in Somalia, including in its airspace" to capture those using Somali territory for piracy.
"The government cordially welcomes the United Nations to fight pirates inland and (on) the Indian Ocean," said Hussein Mohamed Mohamud, spokesman for Somali President Abdullahi Yusuf.
"We're also willing to give them a hand in case they need our assistance," Mohamud told Reuters in the capital Mogadishu.
Somalia has seen continuous conflict since 1991 and its weak Western-backed government is still fighting Islamist insurgents. The chaos has helped fuel the explosion in piracy: there have been nearly 100 attacks in Somali waters this year, despite the presence of several foreign warships. The gunmen are holding about a dozen ships and nearly 300 crew.
Among the captured vessels are a Saudi supertanker loaded with $100 million of crude oil, the Sirius Star, and a Ukrainian cargo ship carrying some 30 Soviet-era tanks, the MV Faina.
Many of the pirates are based in Somalia's semi-autonomous northern region of Puntland. An official there said he was skeptical whether the international community would take action.
"We are not happy because the United Nations never implements what they endorse," Abdulqadir Muse Yusuf, Puntland's assistant fisheries minister, told Reuters in Bosasso.
"We urge them to fight the pirates on land and in our waters. We would also like them to empower our security forces so that we can participate in the global war on piracy too."
There are already several international naval operations off Somalia, including a NATO anti-piracy mission. The European Union agreed Monday to launch anti-piracy naval operations in the area, involving warships and aircraft.
The U.N. special envoy to Somalia, Ahmedou Ould-Abdallah, told an international meeting on piracy in Kenya Thursday that the pirates were "threatening the very freedom and safety of maritime trade routes, affecting not only Somalia and the region, but also a large percentage of world trade."
(Additional reporting by Duncan Miriri in Nairobi; Writing by Daniel Wallis; editing by Mark Trevelyan)

Pirates 'put down hostage revolt'

Medeshi Dec 9 , 2008
Pirates 'put down hostage revolt'
Somali pirates say they have thwarted an apparent revolt by the crew of a hijacked Ukrainian cargo ship, according to reports.
An unnamed pirate told the AFP news agency that sailors of the MV Faina tried to "harm" two of their captors.
The ship is carrying 33 tanks and other weaponry and was seized by pirates two and half months ago.
A Ukrainian foreign ministry spokesman said they had not received any information of the incident.
"Some crew members on the Ukrainian ship are misbehaving," the pirate said.
"They tried to harm two of our gunmen late Monday. This is unacceptable, they risk serious punitive measures.
"Somalis know how to live and how to die at the same time, but the Ukrainians' attempt to take violent action is misguided."
Surprise attack
He claimed that two of the pirates were taken by surprise when a group of crew members attacked them.
"Maybe some of the crew are frustrated and we are feeling the same but our boys never opted for violence, this was a provocation," he told AFP by telephone.
Another report of the incident, by Russian Ren TV, quoted one of the pirates as saying that the crew responsible would be "seriously punished".
Gunmen seized the Kenya-bound MV Faina, carrying 33 tanks, grenade launchers and ammunition, on 24 September.
The ship, which is currently anchored off the pirate stronghold of Harardhere, has a mostly Ukrainian crew of 21.
Pirates had initially demanded a ransom of $20m (£13.5m).
In November, a Kenyan maritime official confirmed that a deal had been struck between the ship's owner and the pirates, and that the two sides were discussing the ship's release.
Details of the agreement have not been revealed.
Meanwhile, the British commander in charge of the EU's anti-piracy mission says the force will station armed guards on vulnerable cargo ships in the Gulf of Aden.
Rear Admiral Phillip Jones says his priority is to ensure safe passage for ships transporting food aid to Somalia.
The EU force - which includes four ships and two maritime reconnaissance aircraft - will take over from Nato ships on Monday.
Rear Adm Jones said the task facing the mission was enormous.
"I'd be the first to admit that a naval force itself cannot eradicate piracy... but we can still make a significant contribution to combating piracy," he said.
The task force - codenamed operation Atalanta and working under a UN mandate - is not allowed to board seized ships or to free crews held hostage.
Story from BBC NEWS:

Witnesses: Ethiopians troops pouring into Somalia

Witnesses: Ethiopians troops pouring into Somalia
By MOHAMED SHEIKH NOR
MOGADISHU, Somalia (AP)
Ethiopian troops are pouring into neighboring Somalia to fight radical Islamists who have taken over much of the country, raising fears of more violence in a country fighting a deadly insurgency and piracy, witnesses and the Somali government said Tuesday.
The Ethiopians' advance comes just weeks before they are scheduled to withdraw after an unpopular, two-year presence here. The Ethiopians are integral to protecting the Western-backed government, and their planned withdrawal at the end of the month will likely herald the administration's collapse.
Dahir Dhere, a Somali military spokesman, said the Ethiopians are "helping the Somali people and they will get rid of al-Shabab," referring to the extremist Islamic group that is advancing steadily toward the capital, Mogadishu.
The phone of Ethiopian foreign ministry spokesman Wahde Belay rang unanswered.
Somalia has been in chaos for nearly two decades, and the country's Western-backed transitional government has failed to assert any real control since it was formed in 2004. Ethiopia — the region's military powerhouse — sent thousands of troops here in late 2006 to help oust the Islamic extremists, who soon launched an Iraq-style insurgency.
The Somali troops and their Ethiopian allies have come under near-daily attack from the militants.
The Associated Press interviewed nearly a dozen residents of towns near the Somali-Ethiopian border, who say troops from Ethiopia have been streaming into the country in recent days.
In Balan Bal, another town on the countries' border, hundreds of Ethiopian troops riding 14 military vehicles entered the city Monday, said resident Ahmed Sheik Roble.
"The Ethiopian troops took positions at a former military base and a police station," he said. "Some of the troops started to dig trenches while others started to patrol the city."
The United States fears that Somalia could be a terrorist breeding ground, and accuses al-Shabab of harboring the al-Qaida-linked terrorists who allegedly blew up the U.S. embassies in Kenya and Tanzania in 1998.
Ethiopia recently announced it would withdraw its troops by the end of this month, leaving Somalia's government vulnerable to insurgents, who have captured most of southern Somalia and even move freely in the capital.
The Shabab declared an Islamic state in a region of southern Somalia on Sunday, establishing posts including a governor, security official and chief judge, according to the U.S-based SITE Intelligence Group, which monitors extremist sites. The declaration is the latest sign of the Shabab's steady advance.
Associated Press Writer Mohamed Olad Hassan contributed to this report.

Piracy in Somalia


Medeshi Dec 9 , 2008


David Miliband
Foreign Secretary
Yesterday marked the launch of the European Union's naval mission to tackle piracy in the Gulf of Aden and along the Somali Coast, under British command. It is a hugely tough job, inextricably linked to the ground situation in Somalia, but vital for global trade and security. The mission's key roles are to protect World Food Programme humanitarian deliveries to Somalia, protecting other vulnerable shipping and deterring and disrupting piracy more widely.


The mission, called Operation "Atalanta", also includes airborne surveillance in known piracy high risk areas. Warships and patrol aircraft from eight nations including the UK are so far committed to participate in "Atalanta", and the EU has made clear it would welcome participation by non-EU member states too, in recognition that this is a shared international problem and responsibility. It is a good example of the EU bringing together the resources of member states to good effect.

“So Much to Fear” : War Crimes and the Devastation of Somalia

So Much Fear : War Crimes and the Devastation of Somalia
(Human Rights report )

Summary
Medeshi Dec9, 2008
Somalia is a nation in ruins, mired in one of the world’s most brutal armed conflicts
of recent years. Two long years of escalating bloodshed and destruction have
devastated the country’s people and laid waste to its capital Mogadishu. Ethiopian,
Somali transitional government, and insurgent forces have all violated the laws of
war with impunity, forcing ordinary Somalis to bear the brunt of their armed struggle.
Beyond its own borders Somalia has had a reputation for violent chaos since the
collapse of its last central government in 1991. When Ethiopian military forces
intervened there in late 2006 the country already bore the scars of 16 conflict-ridden
years without a government.

But the last two years are not just another typical chapter in Somalia’s troubled
history. The human rights and humanitarian catastrophe facing Somalia today
threatens the lives and livelihoods of millions of Somalis on a scale not witnessed
since the early 1990s.

In December 2006 Ethiopian military forces, acting at the invitation of the
internationally recognized but wholly ineffectual Somali Transitional Federal
Government (TFG), intervened in Somalia against the Islamic Courts Union (ICU). The
ICU was a coalition of shari’a (Islamic law) courts that had taken control of
Mogadishu in June 2006 after ousting the various warlords who controlled most of
the city. At the time the ICU had begun what might have been a dramatic rise to
power across much of south-central Somalia. But Ethiopia viewed that development
with great alarm; leading figures associated with the ICU had openly threatened war
on Ethiopia and talked of annexing the whole of Ethiopia’s eastern Somali region.

Ethiopia’s ally the TFG was corrupt and feeble and it welcomed the Ethiopian military
support. In 2006 it had a physical presence in only two towns, provided no useful
services to Somalis, and with the ICU’s ascendancy was becoming increasingly
irrelevant. The United States, which denounced ICU leaders for harboring wanted
terrorists, supported Ethiopia’s actions with political backing and military assistance.
The Ethiopian military easily routed the ICU’s militias. For a few days it appeared that
they had won an easy victory and that the TFG had ridden Ethiopia’s coattails into
power in Mogadishu. But the first insurgent attacks against Ethiopian and TFG forces
began almost immediately and rapidly built towards a protracted conflict that has
since grown worse with every passing month. Opposition forces coalesced around a
broad group of ICU leaders, former parliamentarians, and others known as the
Alliance for the Re-Liberation of Somalia, around the fundamentalist Al-Shabaab
insurgent group and around numerous other largely autonomous armed factions.

During the past two years life in Mogadishu has settled into a horrifying daily rhythm
with Ethiopian, TFG, and insurgent forces conducting urban firefights and pounding
one another with artillery fire with no regard for the lives of hundreds of thousands of
civilians trapped in the city. The bombardments are largely indiscriminate, lobbed
into densely populated neighborhoods with no adequate effort made to guide them
to their intended targets. Insurgents lob mortar shells from populated
neighborhoods that crash through the roofs of families living near TFG police
stations and Ethiopian bases. Ethiopian and TFG forces respond with sustained
salvos of mortar, artillery, and rocket fire that destroy homes and their inhabitants
near the launching points of the fast-departed insurgents. Fighting regularly breaks
out between insurgents and Ethiopian or TFG forces and all too often civilians are
caught in the crossfire.

The warring parties in Somalia have been responsible for numerous serious human
rights abuses. TFG security forces and militias have terrorized the population by
subjecting citizens to murder, rape, assault, and looting. Insurgent fighters subject
perceived critics or TFG collaborators—including people who took menial jobs in TFG
offices or sold water to Ethiopian soldiers—to death threats and targeted killings.
The discipline of Ethiopian soldiers in Somalia has broken down to the point where
they increasingly are responsible for violent criminality. Victims have no way to file a
complaint—the TFG police force has itself been implicated in many of the worst
abuses, including the arbitrary arrests of ordinary civilians to extort ransom from
their families.

Two years of unconstrained warfare and violent rights abuses have helped to
generate an ever-worsening humanitarian crisis, without adequate response. Since
January 2007 at least 870,000 civilians have fled the chaos in Mogadishu alone—
two-thirds of the city’s population. Across south-central Somalia, 1.1 million Somalis
are displaced from their homes. Hundreds of thousands of displaced people are
living in squalid camps along the Mogadishu-Afgooye road that have themselves
become theaters of brutal fighting.

Thousands of Somali refugees pour across the country’s borders every month fleeing
the relentless violence. Freelance militias have robbed, murdered, and raped
displaced persons on the roads south towards Kenya. Hundreds of Somalis have
drowned this year in desperate attempts to cross the Gulf of Aden by boat to Yemen.
In spite of the dangers, thousands make these journeys every month. As a result the
Dadaab refugee camps in northeastern Kenya are now the largest in the world with a
collective population of more than 220,000.

Somalia’s humanitarian needs are enormous. Humanitarian organizations estimate
that more than 3.25 million Somalis—over 40 percent of the population of southcentral
Somalia— will be in urgent need of assistance by the end of 2008. But
violence, particularly targeted attacks on aid workers, is preventing the flow of
needed aid. This past year has seen a wave of death threats and targeted killings
against civil society activists and humanitarian workers in Somalia. At least 29
humanitarian workers have been killed in 2008 and the threat of more attacks has
driven many of the very people Somalia most needs in this time of crisis to flee the
country.

As shocking as these statistics are, the full horror of the crisis in Somalia can only be
understood through the experiences of the ordinary people whose lives it has
shattered. Human Rights Watch interviewed a young boy whose wounds from an
insurgent bomb attack were festering in Kenya’s under-resourced refugee camps.
Others saw their relatives cut down by stray bullets during wild and indiscriminate
exchanges of gunfire. One young man saw his parents shot and killed for arguing
with TFG security personnel. A pregnant teenage girl told Human Rights Watch that
she was gang raped by TFG forces. Another young man was overwhelmed with rage
after seeing his sisters and mother raped by Ethiopian soldiers who had killed his
father.

No party to the conflict in Somalia has made any significant effort to hold
accountable those responsible for war crimes and serious human rights abuses. The
grim reality of widespread impunity for serious crimes is compounded by the fact
that both TFG and insurgent forces are fragmented into multiple sets of largely
autonomous actors. TFG security forces are not regularly paid and often act as
freelance militias rather than disciplined security forces.

Somalia’s conflict has international as well as domestic dimensions. For Somalia’s
regional neighbors—Ethiopia, Eritrea, and Kenya—the conflict creates immediate
security risks. Regional and western governments are currently trying to play an
active role in supporting peace talks between the TFG and opposition groups in
Djibouti. With key warring factions refusing to take part, however, these have made
virtually no progress.

This report recognizes that there is no “quick fix” to bring about respect for human
rights, stability, and peace in Somalia. However this does not justify a lack of
political will to engage with problems that past international involvement in Somalia
helped create, let alone policies by outside powers that are making the situation
worse. Many key foreign governments have played deeply destructive roles in
Somalia and bear responsibility for exacerbating the conflict.

The poisonous relations between Ethiopia and Eritrea have greatly contributed to
Somalia’s crisis. Eritrea has treated Somalia primarily as a useful theater of proxy
war against Ethiopian forces in the country, while one of Ethiopia’s reasons for
intervening was a fear that an ICU-dominated Somalia would align itself with Eritrea
and shelter Ethiopian rebel fighters as Eritrea has done.

Ethiopia has legitimate security interests in Somalia, but has not lived up to its
responsibility to prevent and respond to war crimes and serious human rights
abuses by its forces in the country. Ethiopia’s government has failed to even
acknowledge, let alone investigate and ensure accountability for the crimes of its
force. This only serves to entrench the impunity that encourages more abuses.
United States policy towards Somalia largely revolves around fears of international
terrorist networks using the country as a base. The United States directly backed
Ethiopia’s intervention in Somalia and has provided strong political backing to the
TFG. But US officials have refused to meaningfully confront or even publicly
acknowledge the extent of Ethiopian military and TFG abuses in the country. The US
approach is not only failing to address the rights and suffering of millions of Somalis
but is counterproductive in its own terms, breeding the very extremism that it is
supposed to defeat.

The European Union and key European governments have also failed to address the
human rights dimensions of the crisis, with many officials hoping that somehow
unfettered support to abusive TFG forces will improve stability.

Now is the time for fresh thinking and new political will on Somalia. Human Rights
Watch calls upon all of the parties to the conflict in Somalia to end the patterns of
war crimes and human rights abuses that have harmed countless Somalis and to
ensure accountability for past abuses. This can only come to pass with much
stronger and more principled engagement by key governments that have hitherto
turned a blind eye to the extent and nature of conflict-related abuses in Somalia.

International engagement must take into account the rights and needs of the Somali
people. It should include better monitoring of past and ongoing abuses and, as a
starting point, a commitment at the UN Security Council to establish an independent
commission of inquiry to investigate serious crimes in Somalia. Key governments
should also use their diplomatic leverage with Ethiopian, TFG, and opposition
leaders to insist upon accountability and an end to the daily attacks upon Somalia’s
beleaguered citizens.

In the short term, Human Rights Watch calls upon the TFG to immediately suspend
officials implicated in serious human rights abuses pending the outcome of
independent investigations. The Ethiopian government should launch a full


Read full report at : http://www.hrw.org/sites/default/files/reports/somalia1208web.pdf

Ethiopia Redeploys Troops In Somalia -Witnesses

Ethiopia Redeploys Troops In Somalia -Witnesses
12-9-08
MOGADISHU, Somalia
(AFP)--Ethiopia sent troops across the border into Somalia on Tuesday and reoccupied former military positions in Mogadishu, raising questions about its withdrawal plans, witnesses told AFP.
Addis Ababa didn't comment on the troop movements, which some residents saw as negating Ethiopia's pledge to pull out its troops by the end of the year, while others interpreted it as a tactical move to ensure a smooth withdrawal.
"The Ethiopians deployed a battalion of their troops in Somalia's border town of Kalabeyr in the central Hiran region," Abdi Moalin Farah, a resident in the nearby town of Beledweyn, told AFP, adding the troops had left their positions there only two weeks earlier.
Other witnesses in the region confirmed the redeployment.
In the capital Mogadishu, Ethiopian troops reoccupied part of the northern district of Yaqshiid, residents said.
"Three areas which were vacated by Ethiopian troops five days ago were reoccupied," Abdullahe Mohamud, a local businessman, told AFP.
Ethiopia's Foreign Ministry announced late last month it would pull its troops out of Somalia by year's end, wrapping up its ill-fated two-year occupation of the conflict-ridden country. But the surprise announcement of a hasty withdrawal wreaked panic within the African Union, whose under-equipped peacekeepers are meant to take over security duties but need more time to prepare.
Ethiopia subsequently said it could delay its pullout "by a few days" in order not to expose AU forces to an onslaught by the Shebab, the Islamist insurgents who control large parts of Somalia and have been closing in on Mogadishu in recent weeks.
Dow Jones Newswires
Can the US learn the lessons of Ethiopia in Somalia?
By Clarity Staff Reporter on December 9th, 2008
There are some analogies between the US position in Iraq, and the Ethiopian experience in Somalia. Ethiopia entered Somalia to assist the government to combat a fundamental Muslim insurgent group, the Shabab that threatened to overrun the country. The result is that Ethiopia has been an unpopular occupier in Somalia among many locals, for the last two years. Ethiopia is the strongest military force in the region, and it believed it was acting in the best interest of Somalia. Ethiopia now wants to leave, but this proving more of a challenge than expected. Is this a forewarning of the issues the US will face as it tries to exit Iraq?
The Somalia exercise has been costly for Ethiopia both in terms of fiscal resources, personnel, and also in terms of political capital. Ethiopia openly stated that it intended in the next few weeks to withdraw, leaving the weak Somalia government to manage its own affairs. Somalia, in chaos for decades, has a figurehead government favored by the West in preference to a probable fundamentalist Muslim replacement government should the existing regime fall. . Somalia, and in effect the Ethiopian army, has been battling the Shabab who are claiming Somalia as an Islamic Republic. As soon as Ethiopia began to draw down troops, the Shabab group began regaining ground. In southern Somalia, the Shabab have already taken full control, raising their flag and creating new regional government to fill the vacuum created by the withdrawal of the Ethiopian army in the area. The Shabab are the Somalia equivalent of Al Qaeda, and are widely believed to be in communication and co-operation with them. It is believed members of Shabab were involved in, or are at least harboring, the terrorists that bombed the US Embassies in Kenya and Tanzania in 1998.
Today, Ethiopia had to acknowledge that their withdrawal will probably result in a Shabab victory and the downfall of the Somali government. As a result, Ethiopian troops are flooding back over the border into Somali to combat Shabab insurgents converging on the Somali capital, Mogadishu. The West isn’t willing to help given their past experiences in Somalia (‘Black Hawk Down’ being the most recent US expereince there), so the job remains with the Ethiopians. They are trying to get out, but having been the dominant military and political power in the country, are finding withdrawal a practical impossibility.
This is a similar situation that the US could face as they attempt to disengage themselves from Iraq. When you have been the power player in country and you leave, someone else with their own agenda wants to fill the top dog position that you leave vacant, and it may not be the duly elected government that one wants. The Shabab have played a strategic hand, harassing the Ethiopians to the point of frustration, developing local support based on religious and ethic grounds, and frustrating any attempt to contain them. It appears the Shabab, Taliban and Al Qaeda may be sharing the same play book. Ethiopia faces a hard decision. Does it withdraw and leave the Somali people to their fate or remain engaged for the sake of regional stability. This may end up being exactly the decision the US has to face in Iraq. We hope the US analysts are following the Somali conflict so that they can learn from the Ethiopian experience.

The Battle Over Africa

The Battle Over Africa
Medeshi Dec 9 ,2008
As the power of the United States wanes and the power of the European Union, China, and Russia rise so too will the level of competition between the various powers. Like all geopolitical competition it is be both overt and covert, governmental and corporate, and will rarely, if ever, involve the direct engagement of the powers in question. At the same time the constant proxy warfare will inflame nationalist sentiments and regional conflicts. These are the cases where direct involvement by one or more of the world powers becomes likely. As the powers increase their presence in a region they also will increase their vulnerability to domestic conflicts which ultimately lead to more intervention.
In Africa exists a fertile ground for large-scale proxy wars between the great powers and other forms of intervention. The Cold War saw battles against colonialism and civil wars becoming battles between the various powers including the European powers wishing to retain their territories in Africa. In the current era similar conflicts are potential staging grounds for proxy wars between outside powers.

Zimbabwe
Robert Mugabe, the President of Zimbabwe, has been a long-time ally of the Chinese government dating back to the days of the Rhodesian Bush Wars. At the same time he has become an enemy of Europe and the United States supposedly for his authoritarian methods. In Zimbabwe the U.S. and Europe favor opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai. Despite criticism of the 2008 election Tsvangirai's party was able to win control of the lower house, though failing to secure the less powerful upper house. The presidential election results were delayed and pushed back but ultimately Tsvangirai was declared to have won but not by a sufficient margin to avoid a second round. In the intervening period Zimbabwean war veterans and loyalists of Mugabe began attacking members of the MDC and frequent threats were made. In the end Tsvangirai withdrew because of the violence against his supporters giving Mugabe victory in the presidential election.
Since that time a series of negotiations have been conducted to resolve the dispute and have a power-sharing arrangement. However, resistance from the military, which is believed to have pressured Mugabe against resigning following the first election and instead unleashing the wave of violence prior to the second round, has held up decisions on key government positions. The situation has deteriorated considerably in the country including an outbreak of cholera and domestic unrest by renegade members of the military.
This situation has also given rise to broader problems with European and pro-Western African officials actively calling for Mugabe to resign or be deposed by military force if necessary. The most notable controversies have arisen over the stance of Botswana's government which has not only suggested closing the borders of Zimbabwe to bring down Mugabe but has even talked about giving shelter to the MDC so it can form a "democratic resistance movement" to the Zimbabwean government should power-sharing talks fail, most likely meaning an armed resistance to Mugabe. Relations between Zimbabwe and Botswana have deteriorated to such a level that Botswana has announced it is closing its embassy with the nation.
Botswana is a major ally of the United States with the U.S. training most of Botswana's military officers and the dominant party in the country is said to receive money from the United States. As such Botswana is most likely acting at the behest of the United States government in its statements about Mugabe. The most likely motivation is to prevent the growth of Chinese influence in Africa as Zimbabwe is a stalwart ally of China. However, Zimbabwe is not without its regional allies with Namibia in particular attacking the statements of Botswana's government. Destabilization of the situation in Zimbabwe and interference from Botswana could invite Namibian intervention as a result. Such a conflict would also involve some form of assistance from various regional powers like South Africa and the Congo in the latter case possibly entangling with its own conflicts.
Sudan
While the situation in Sudan has not reached the level it did earlier in the year when rebels from Darfur attacked Khartoum and put Sudan and Chad on a potential path to war there are potential issues in Southern Sudan. The Justice and Equality Movement of Darfur has been reportedly moving forces into South Kordofan and the Sudanese army has responded by sending its military forces into the region. However the region is also disputed with Southern Sudan and scheduled to vote on joining Southern Sudan the same time Southern Sudan is set to vote on independence. The ruling party in the south, the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement, is claiming the deployment violates the peace agreement. A similar deployment in Abyei earlier in the year nearly resulted in the reigniting of the country's civil war.
Sudan is presently opposed by the U.S. and Europe because of the situation in Darfur, which many in the U.S. government consider genocide, while China has embraced the country. China gets a significant amount of oil from Sudan and one major source China is looking to exploit is in Sudan's south. In conjunction with China's economic and military relationship with Sudan it has a significant presence in the country which would be threatened by a renewed civil war. Most risky is the chance that Southern Sudan and Darfuri rebels will come together against the government in Khartoum posing a real threat to the state. Any threat to China's oil projects in the country and Chinese citizen there could invite Chinese military intervention to prop up the government and fight rebel forces. While relations have improved a major conflict in Sudan could rekindle tensions with Chad, which receives significant backing from France and the EU risking a proxy war between the Europeans and the Chinese through Chad and Sudan.
Somalia
No country best exemplifies the frequent proxy wars and geopolitical dynamics of Africa as much as Somalia. Switching from the Soviets to the U.S. on several occasion the government collapsed completely in 1991 and afterwards devolving into warlordism with several secessionist states forming in the area. In 2006 a powerful force emerged lead by the Islamic Courts Union with significant ties to the global jihadist network including al-Qaeda. Allegedly the ICU was backed by Eritrea with Ethiopia supporting its opponents, a part of the cold war between Ethiopia and Eritrea since their war over the border region of Badme. Ultimately Ethiopia, backed by the United States, launched an offensive into Somalia pushing back the ICU.

Since then, however, the situation has deteriorated. Al-Shebab, the militant wing of the Islamic Courts Union, became more radicalized and most leaders of the ICU had been swept aside following the Ethiopian intervention. Shebab has begun regaining lost territory in Somalia with its forces beginning to encircle Mogadishu and having already gained control of major ports in the Southern part of Somalia like Kismayo. They also have won support from the local populations to some extent by drastically reducing the crime rate in areas they've claimed. At the same time the Ethiopian government has announced plans to pull out of the country at the end of the year which could be followed by withdrawal of the African Union force. With the Western-backed transitional government in dire straits a withdrawal of foreign forces would allow the quick victory of al-Shebab over remaining resistance in Southern Somalia.

At this point focus would shift to north and the autonomous state in Puntland along with the pirates in the region. If Islamic force can manage to secure victory against Puntland then their next target will be the secessionist state of Somaliland. In such a scenario the West is likely to recognize Somaliland as an independent state and rush to its aid. This conflict could then become another proxy battle between Eritrea and Ethiopia. At the same time with Ethiopia less engaged in the country they could seek to resolve their conflict with Eritrea by force. Such an operation would likely receive Western support as Eritrea has also made threats to neighbor Djibouti including a brief border conflict. Any scenario where Ethiopia and Eritrea go to war will likely also include a conflict in Djibouti which is likely to bring in France and the United States. In such a scenario Eritrea could leak to foreign powers like Iran or Russia for support, thus casting the conflict as a greater proxy war between outside powers.



Congo


The Democratic Republic of the Congo has seen itself embroiled in the deadliest war in Africa since the Second World War with eight nations overalled fighting in the Second Congo War. Since that war concluded another conflict has brewed in the Kivu region as renegade general Laurent Nkunda fights against the Congolese government. Fighting intensified in 2008 with Nkunda making significant gains in the area and threatening to overthrow the government. While he agreed to peace talks initially they have been cast in doubt with threats of ending the talks if other rebel groups are brought on.
Despite apparently declaring together with African neighbors not to support Nkunda there is evidence the U.S. has covertly backed Nkunda against the Congolese governments and very clear evidence of him receiving support from Rwandan forces with members of Rwanda's military fighting alongside Nkunda according to reports and Nkunda's army even reportedly being on the payroll of the Rwandan government. On the Congo's side are various reports of Angolan soldiers fighting against Nkunda's forces alongside the Congolese military and Zimbabwean soldiers performing recon missions for the Congolese central government.
While the regional alliances are clear enough the outside ones are more complicated. While Nkunda could be receiving support from the U.S. and Rwanda, a U.S.-backed regime in the region, the European Union has talked about intervening in the conflict on the side of the Congolese government. The UN mission there, consisting of many European peacekeepers, have been attacked directly by Nkunda. At the same time Nkunda has shown considerable opposition to Chinese involvement in the country like a $9 billion Chinese plan to invest in Congolese infrastructure in exchange for considerable control of the nation's mineral resources. The terms of the agreement with the central government are clearly favorable to China which had led to accusations of colonialism.
Whether it is concern about the EU gaining too much influence in the country or China the U.S. may be backing Nkunda as a way of applying pressure on the central government to prevent such influence from becoming too great or may even desire to remove the current government in favor of one more pliable to the U.S. However, the only likely chance of direct military intervention is on the side of the Europeans and regional nations. On the regional side a conflict in the Congo could easily intersect with one in Zimbabwe representing a wider African war involving a proxy conflict simultaneously between the U.S. and the EU, the EU and China, and the U.S. and China.
Growing competition between the rising powers and the U.S. as well as between the rising powers themselves will manifest itself more and more as global conditions deteriorate and it is likely Africa will be just one major battleground for the inevitable proxy wars.

Source: World War III

Somali pirates threat force cruise ship evacuation

Medeshi Dec 9 ,2008
BERLIN – A cruise ship will evacuate passengers before sailing through waters off the Somali coast and fly them to the next port of call to protect them from possible pirate attacks, German cruise operator Hapag-Lloyd said Tuesday.
An official with the European Union's anti-piracy mission said separately that the force would station armed guards on vulnerable cargo ships in the Gulf of Aden.
The MS Columbus cruise ship will drop off its 246 passengers before the ship and some of its crew sail through the Gulf on Wednesday, the Hamburg-based company said in a statement, without saying exactly where they would disembark. It said the passengers would take a charter flight Wednesday to Dubai and spend three days at a five-star hotel waiting to rejoin the 150-meter (490-foot) vessel in the southern Oman port of Salalah for the remainder of a round-the-world tour that began in Italy.
The company said it was sending its passengers on the detour as a "precautionary measure," given rampant piracy off the coast of lawless Somalia that recently has targeted cruise ships as well as commercial vessels, including a Saudi oil tanker and a Ukrainian ship carrying tanks and other weapons.
Last week, pirates fired upon the M/S Nautica, a cruise liner carrying 650 passengers and 400 crew members, but the massive ship quickly outran its assailants. Other ships have not been so lucky. Pirates have attacked 32 vessels and hijacked 12 of them since NATO deployed a four-vessel flotilla on Oct. 24 to escort cargo ships and conduct anti-piracy patrols.
An EU anti-piracy mission — which takes over for the NATO ships on Monday — may also involve stationing armed guards on the most vulnerable cargo ships in high-risk areas, the British naval commander in charge of the EU mission said Tuesday.
British Vice-Admiral Philip Jones said the guards could be placed on some ships transporting food aid to Somalia. The EU mission will also includes four ships and two maritime reconnaissance aircraft.
In addition to the EU vessels, about a dozen other warships from the U.S. 5th Fleet based in Bahrain, as well as from India, Russia and Malaysia and other nations are patrolling in the area.
The Russian navy will soon replace its warship in the region with another from a different fleet, navy spokesman Capt. Igor Dygalo said Tuesday in Moscow.
The missile frigate Neustrashimy, or Intrepid — deployed from Russia's Northern Fleet after pirates seized the Ukrainian ship carrying tanks in September — has escorted freighters through the Gulf and helped thwart at least two pirate attacks, the navy said.
The Intrepid will remain in the region through December and be replaced by a ship from Russia's Pacific Fleet.
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Associated Press Writer Slobodan Lekic contributed to this report from Brussels, Belgium.

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