Ethiopia Redeploys Troops In Somalia -Witnesses 12-9-08
MOGADISHU, Somalia
(AFP)--Ethiopia sent troops across the border into Somalia on Tuesday and reoccupied former military positions in Mogadishu, raising questions about its withdrawal plans, witnesses told AFP.
Addis Ababa didn't comment on the troop movements, which some residents saw as negating Ethiopia's pledge to pull out its troops by the end of the year, while others interpreted it as a tactical move to ensure a smooth withdrawal.
"The Ethiopians deployed a battalion of their troops in Somalia's border town of Kalabeyr in the central Hiran region," Abdi Moalin Farah, a resident in the nearby town of Beledweyn, told AFP, adding the troops had left their positions there only two weeks earlier.
Other witnesses in the region confirmed the redeployment.
In the capital Mogadishu, Ethiopian troops reoccupied part of the northern district of Yaqshiid, residents said.
"Three areas which were vacated by Ethiopian troops five days ago were reoccupied," Abdullahe Mohamud, a local businessman, told AFP.
Ethiopia's Foreign Ministry announced late last month it would pull its troops out of Somalia by year's end, wrapping up its ill-fated two-year occupation of the conflict-ridden country. But the surprise announcement of a hasty withdrawal wreaked panic within the African Union, whose under-equipped peacekeepers are meant to take over security duties but need more time to prepare.
Ethiopia subsequently said it could delay its pullout "by a few days" in order not to expose AU forces to an onslaught by the Shebab, the Islamist insurgents who control large parts of Somalia and have been closing in on Mogadishu in recent weeks.
Dow Jones Newswires
(AFP)--Ethiopia sent troops across the border into Somalia on Tuesday and reoccupied former military positions in Mogadishu, raising questions about its withdrawal plans, witnesses told AFP.
Addis Ababa didn't comment on the troop movements, which some residents saw as negating Ethiopia's pledge to pull out its troops by the end of the year, while others interpreted it as a tactical move to ensure a smooth withdrawal.
"The Ethiopians deployed a battalion of their troops in Somalia's border town of Kalabeyr in the central Hiran region," Abdi Moalin Farah, a resident in the nearby town of Beledweyn, told AFP, adding the troops had left their positions there only two weeks earlier.
Other witnesses in the region confirmed the redeployment.
In the capital Mogadishu, Ethiopian troops reoccupied part of the northern district of Yaqshiid, residents said.
"Three areas which were vacated by Ethiopian troops five days ago were reoccupied," Abdullahe Mohamud, a local businessman, told AFP.
Ethiopia's Foreign Ministry announced late last month it would pull its troops out of Somalia by year's end, wrapping up its ill-fated two-year occupation of the conflict-ridden country. But the surprise announcement of a hasty withdrawal wreaked panic within the African Union, whose under-equipped peacekeepers are meant to take over security duties but need more time to prepare.
Ethiopia subsequently said it could delay its pullout "by a few days" in order not to expose AU forces to an onslaught by the Shebab, the Islamist insurgents who control large parts of Somalia and have been closing in on Mogadishu in recent weeks.
Dow Jones Newswires
Can the US learn the lessons of Ethiopia in Somalia?
By Clarity Staff Reporter on December 9th, 2008
There are some analogies between the US position in Iraq, and the Ethiopian experience in Somalia. Ethiopia entered Somalia to assist the government to combat a fundamental Muslim insurgent group, the Shabab that threatened to overrun the country. The result is that Ethiopia has been an unpopular occupier in Somalia among many locals, for the last two years. Ethiopia is the strongest military force in the region, and it believed it was acting in the best interest of Somalia. Ethiopia now wants to leave, but this proving more of a challenge than expected. Is this a forewarning of the issues the US will face as it tries to exit Iraq?
The Somalia exercise has been costly for Ethiopia both in terms of fiscal resources, personnel, and also in terms of political capital. Ethiopia openly stated that it intended in the next few weeks to withdraw, leaving the weak Somalia government to manage its own affairs. Somalia, in chaos for decades, has a figurehead government favored by the West in preference to a probable fundamentalist Muslim replacement government should the existing regime fall. . Somalia, and in effect the Ethiopian army, has been battling the Shabab who are claiming Somalia as an Islamic Republic. As soon as Ethiopia began to draw down troops, the Shabab group began regaining ground. In southern Somalia, the Shabab have already taken full control, raising their flag and creating new regional government to fill the vacuum created by the withdrawal of the Ethiopian army in the area. The Shabab are the Somalia equivalent of Al Qaeda, and are widely believed to be in communication and co-operation with them. It is believed members of Shabab were involved in, or are at least harboring, the terrorists that bombed the US Embassies in Kenya and Tanzania in 1998.
Today, Ethiopia had to acknowledge that their withdrawal will probably result in a Shabab victory and the downfall of the Somali government. As a result, Ethiopian troops are flooding back over the border into Somali to combat Shabab insurgents converging on the Somali capital, Mogadishu. The West isn’t willing to help given their past experiences in Somalia (‘Black Hawk Down’ being the most recent US expereince there), so the job remains with the Ethiopians. They are trying to get out, but having been the dominant military and political power in the country, are finding withdrawal a practical impossibility.
This is a similar situation that the US could face as they attempt to disengage themselves from Iraq. When you have been the power player in country and you leave, someone else with their own agenda wants to fill the top dog position that you leave vacant, and it may not be the duly elected government that one wants. The Shabab have played a strategic hand, harassing the Ethiopians to the point of frustration, developing local support based on religious and ethic grounds, and frustrating any attempt to contain them. It appears the Shabab, Taliban and Al Qaeda may be sharing the same play book. Ethiopia faces a hard decision. Does it withdraw and leave the Somali people to their fate or remain engaged for the sake of regional stability. This may end up being exactly the decision the US has to face in Iraq. We hope the US analysts are following the Somali conflict so that they can learn from the Ethiopian experience.
By Clarity Staff Reporter on December 9th, 2008
There are some analogies between the US position in Iraq, and the Ethiopian experience in Somalia. Ethiopia entered Somalia to assist the government to combat a fundamental Muslim insurgent group, the Shabab that threatened to overrun the country. The result is that Ethiopia has been an unpopular occupier in Somalia among many locals, for the last two years. Ethiopia is the strongest military force in the region, and it believed it was acting in the best interest of Somalia. Ethiopia now wants to leave, but this proving more of a challenge than expected. Is this a forewarning of the issues the US will face as it tries to exit Iraq?
The Somalia exercise has been costly for Ethiopia both in terms of fiscal resources, personnel, and also in terms of political capital. Ethiopia openly stated that it intended in the next few weeks to withdraw, leaving the weak Somalia government to manage its own affairs. Somalia, in chaos for decades, has a figurehead government favored by the West in preference to a probable fundamentalist Muslim replacement government should the existing regime fall. . Somalia, and in effect the Ethiopian army, has been battling the Shabab who are claiming Somalia as an Islamic Republic. As soon as Ethiopia began to draw down troops, the Shabab group began regaining ground. In southern Somalia, the Shabab have already taken full control, raising their flag and creating new regional government to fill the vacuum created by the withdrawal of the Ethiopian army in the area. The Shabab are the Somalia equivalent of Al Qaeda, and are widely believed to be in communication and co-operation with them. It is believed members of Shabab were involved in, or are at least harboring, the terrorists that bombed the US Embassies in Kenya and Tanzania in 1998.
Today, Ethiopia had to acknowledge that their withdrawal will probably result in a Shabab victory and the downfall of the Somali government. As a result, Ethiopian troops are flooding back over the border into Somali to combat Shabab insurgents converging on the Somali capital, Mogadishu. The West isn’t willing to help given their past experiences in Somalia (‘Black Hawk Down’ being the most recent US expereince there), so the job remains with the Ethiopians. They are trying to get out, but having been the dominant military and political power in the country, are finding withdrawal a practical impossibility.
This is a similar situation that the US could face as they attempt to disengage themselves from Iraq. When you have been the power player in country and you leave, someone else with their own agenda wants to fill the top dog position that you leave vacant, and it may not be the duly elected government that one wants. The Shabab have played a strategic hand, harassing the Ethiopians to the point of frustration, developing local support based on religious and ethic grounds, and frustrating any attempt to contain them. It appears the Shabab, Taliban and Al Qaeda may be sharing the same play book. Ethiopia faces a hard decision. Does it withdraw and leave the Somali people to their fate or remain engaged for the sake of regional stability. This may end up being exactly the decision the US has to face in Iraq. We hope the US analysts are following the Somali conflict so that they can learn from the Ethiopian experience.
