Medeshi Dec 19, 2008
Ethiopia leaves Uganda in Somalia quagmire
By Rosebell Kagumire
By January 2009, many fighting Somali factions might have what they have been hoping for – the withdrawal of Ethiopian troops from their country. Recently, Ethiopia announced it intends to pull out its troops by the end this month, ending a two-year occupation of the lawless Horn of African nation.
By Rosebell Kagumire
By January 2009, many fighting Somali factions might have what they have been hoping for – the withdrawal of Ethiopian troops from their country. Recently, Ethiopia announced it intends to pull out its troops by the end this month, ending a two-year occupation of the lawless Horn of African nation.
(Photo: Burundian flag is passed on to Former Force Commander as Ugandan troops and Somali security officers welcome the first Burundi battalion early 2008)
The withdraw is in line with the Djibouti Accord, agreed upon in June this year by the Transitional Federal Government (TFG )in Somalia and the opposition the Alliance for Re-liberation of Somalia (ARS) better known as “The Alliance”.
The Ethiopians will only retain their troops around the border areas if all goes according to plan.
Although Ethiopia’s presence has been unpopular among Somalis who saw it as foreign occupation, the troops have held areas which would most likely by now be under the Islamist militants.
Analysts have warned that the withdrawal of Ethiopian troops will leave a vacuum which the militants might take advantage of to spread mayhem to more parts of Somalia. The Islamists already control much of the country and TFG under President Abdullahi Yusuf only controls Mogadishu and Baidoa.
Such a vacuum will no doubt have an impact on the 1,700 Burundian and 1,700 Ugandan troops on peacekeeping mission in Somalia.
The spokesperson for the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) Maj. Barigye Bahoku told The Independent that they hope the African Union (AU) nations live up to their pledge of sending more troops in Somalia.
“The withdrawal of Ethiopia is based on the fact that there are adequate forces to fill the vacuum they will leave behind. Whether it’s AU or UN this must be worked on very soon,” said Barigye.
In a recent Nairobi IGAD Heads of State Summit, the leaders once again called for generation of troops and there has also been talk of UN deploying in Somalia.
“In the initial mandate we were supposed to be there for six months and the UN takes over but that didn’t happen,” said Maj. Bahoku. “We are still hoping by the time the Ethiopians start withdrawing, more troops will be on the ground.”
However the lack of logistics to fund more troops in Somalia must be overcome as soon as possible for these extra troops to deploy.
Nicolas Bwakira, the AU envoy to Somalia, said it will cost at least $200 million to increase the number of AU troops from the current 3,400 to about 8,000.
Ugandan troops have only been confined in Mogadishu where they guard the Mogadishu Airport and seaport, the K4 junction (the main access route to and from Mogadishu) and the presidential palace. The Burundians are in one station at the former Somalia national university.
Although the mission has been generally less costly in terms of troop loss with ten soldiers – one Burundian and nine Ugandans killed, the peacekeepers remain targeted by extremist groups in Somalia
As recent as last month, the Islamists staged a botched attack on AU peacekeepers base.
Dr Paddy Musana, head of the Peace and Conflict Studies Program at Makerere University says the withdrawal of Ethiopian troops will less likely endanger Ugandans under the AMISOM.
“Uganda’s stand has been diplomacy and so far they have done a great job,” Musana said. “If they continue to tow this line of neutrality they will eventually be in good books of Somalis – even the militants.”
It’s unclear how hardliners like Al Qaeda linked Al Shabab will react to the withdrawal especially with increased TFG facing infighting.
There are worries that the current fights between President Yusuf and Prime Minister Nur Hassan Hussein could pose yet another threat to the presence of the AMISOM. The AU Commission Chairman, Dr. Jean Ping has already warned that the AU force could also leave if government in-fighting continues.
The current troop mandate expires in February 2009. Burundi’s Defence minister Germain Nikyoyankana last week said his country will pull troops from Somalia only after studying the situation and consulting with Uganda. Musana said Uganda’s presence in Somalia is more beneficial now more than ever if it can use its new position as on the UN Security Council to bring more international attention the situation in Somalia.
However Musana warns that Uganda must not be seen to push American or western interests.
“The moment Ugandans in Somalia are seen to be outrightly in bed with US, it will not only spell doom to Ugandan soldiers in Mogadishu but also for Kampala.”
Uganda recently been on high terror alert and groups like Al Shabab have vowed to fight Uganda’s presence in their country Somalia.
Somalia has been in a state of anarchy since 1991 when dictator Mohamed Siad Barre was ousted.
The failure of the international community to respond to the Somali situation where more than 10,000 civilians have been killed since 2007 has been manifested in the increase in piracy in Somali waters especially in the Gulf of Aden.
What the international community especially, US and UN decide to do in the face of spill over effects from the Somalia lawlessness that has made important sea routes bordering Somalia impassable is what might ultimately determine the future of AMISOM, and the peace for the people of Somalia.
The withdraw is in line with the Djibouti Accord, agreed upon in June this year by the Transitional Federal Government (TFG )in Somalia and the opposition the Alliance for Re-liberation of Somalia (ARS) better known as “The Alliance”.
The Ethiopians will only retain their troops around the border areas if all goes according to plan.
Although Ethiopia’s presence has been unpopular among Somalis who saw it as foreign occupation, the troops have held areas which would most likely by now be under the Islamist militants.
Analysts have warned that the withdrawal of Ethiopian troops will leave a vacuum which the militants might take advantage of to spread mayhem to more parts of Somalia. The Islamists already control much of the country and TFG under President Abdullahi Yusuf only controls Mogadishu and Baidoa.
Such a vacuum will no doubt have an impact on the 1,700 Burundian and 1,700 Ugandan troops on peacekeeping mission in Somalia.
The spokesperson for the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) Maj. Barigye Bahoku told The Independent that they hope the African Union (AU) nations live up to their pledge of sending more troops in Somalia.
“The withdrawal of Ethiopia is based on the fact that there are adequate forces to fill the vacuum they will leave behind. Whether it’s AU or UN this must be worked on very soon,” said Barigye.
In a recent Nairobi IGAD Heads of State Summit, the leaders once again called for generation of troops and there has also been talk of UN deploying in Somalia.
“In the initial mandate we were supposed to be there for six months and the UN takes over but that didn’t happen,” said Maj. Bahoku. “We are still hoping by the time the Ethiopians start withdrawing, more troops will be on the ground.”
However the lack of logistics to fund more troops in Somalia must be overcome as soon as possible for these extra troops to deploy.
Nicolas Bwakira, the AU envoy to Somalia, said it will cost at least $200 million to increase the number of AU troops from the current 3,400 to about 8,000.
Ugandan troops have only been confined in Mogadishu where they guard the Mogadishu Airport and seaport, the K4 junction (the main access route to and from Mogadishu) and the presidential palace. The Burundians are in one station at the former Somalia national university.
Although the mission has been generally less costly in terms of troop loss with ten soldiers – one Burundian and nine Ugandans killed, the peacekeepers remain targeted by extremist groups in Somalia
As recent as last month, the Islamists staged a botched attack on AU peacekeepers base.
Dr Paddy Musana, head of the Peace and Conflict Studies Program at Makerere University says the withdrawal of Ethiopian troops will less likely endanger Ugandans under the AMISOM.
“Uganda’s stand has been diplomacy and so far they have done a great job,” Musana said. “If they continue to tow this line of neutrality they will eventually be in good books of Somalis – even the militants.”
It’s unclear how hardliners like Al Qaeda linked Al Shabab will react to the withdrawal especially with increased TFG facing infighting.
There are worries that the current fights between President Yusuf and Prime Minister Nur Hassan Hussein could pose yet another threat to the presence of the AMISOM. The AU Commission Chairman, Dr. Jean Ping has already warned that the AU force could also leave if government in-fighting continues.
The current troop mandate expires in February 2009. Burundi’s Defence minister Germain Nikyoyankana last week said his country will pull troops from Somalia only after studying the situation and consulting with Uganda. Musana said Uganda’s presence in Somalia is more beneficial now more than ever if it can use its new position as on the UN Security Council to bring more international attention the situation in Somalia.
However Musana warns that Uganda must not be seen to push American or western interests.
“The moment Ugandans in Somalia are seen to be outrightly in bed with US, it will not only spell doom to Ugandan soldiers in Mogadishu but also for Kampala.”
Uganda recently been on high terror alert and groups like Al Shabab have vowed to fight Uganda’s presence in their country Somalia.
Somalia has been in a state of anarchy since 1991 when dictator Mohamed Siad Barre was ousted.
The failure of the international community to respond to the Somali situation where more than 10,000 civilians have been killed since 2007 has been manifested in the increase in piracy in Somali waters especially in the Gulf of Aden.
What the international community especially, US and UN decide to do in the face of spill over effects from the Somalia lawlessness that has made important sea routes bordering Somalia impassable is what might ultimately determine the future of AMISOM, and the peace for the people of Somalia.
