Medeshi Sept 18, 2008The Somali Transitional Federal Government (TFG) has experienced since its inception ceaseless military and political blows. It had its leaders assassinated, its forces defeated and driven out of control in most of the country by Islamic opposition forces, and it grew largely unpopular among Somalis. Despite all that, TFG has survived thanks essentially to Ethiopia’s diplomatic and military support.
(Photo: Wounded Somali government soldiers captured by Somali insurgents lie in the back of a van in Mogadishu.)
TFG today suffers a new painful –and perhaps this time fatal – blow of clan-based internal disputes between its members. It started between President Abdulahi Yusuf Ahmed and his Prime Minister Nur “Adde” Hassan Hussein when the cabinet decided to fire the mayor of the capital city, Mogadishu.
The cabinet accused the mayor of taking anti-peace measures including attacks on civilians and business community, but the president called unconstitutional the decision of the prime minister to fire the mayor.
Amid the mediation talks in Ethiopia, the members of the parliament supporting the president proposed “no confidence vote” motion to unseat the prime minister, but the latter survived the vote. The members of the parliament supporting the prime minister then proposed their own motion to impeach the president; and this is still waiting the vote.
President Abdulahi Yusuf Ahmed, a former warlord and a leader of Darod clan mainly dominant in the north-west of the country, is seen to run a frontline of clannish feuds and to try to eliminate any powerful person from his rival Hawiye clan that may challenge him with the power sharing.
On the opposite, the Prime Minister Nur “Adde” Hassan Hussein –a former Red Crescent chief and member from Hawiye clan mainly dominant in the capital city in the south-central of the county – puts all his focus on challenging the president instead of the growing insecurity and the droughts that hit the whole nation.
“The prime minister and the leaders of the opposition groups who have negotiated a peace deal are all from the Hawiye clan; they want to unite and face against the Darod clan of the president,” Abdulrasak Hassan from the president’s office said.
Most members of the opposition Alshabab movement, stamped by the United States as a terrorist group, are said to belong to the president’s Darod clan. They rejected the Djibouti agreement between the TFG prime minister and the opposition Alliance for the Re-liberation of Somalia (ARS) who are both from the Hawiye clan.
The TFG president was not happy with the agreement concluded with the opposition, which did not include Alshabab, his clan brethren. Abdulrasak Hassan from the president’s office said, “We can’t accept negotiation among actors of one clan.”
But according to the prime minister’s office, a peace deal is essential and it should be supported because it will reduce the violence which, by its account, affects the Hawiye people the most. Abdi Moalim, a member of the Premier’s office said, “Darod politicians want to kill our [Hawiye] children and women and say they are terrorists.” Moalim said the government should not discriminate between clans and should work for the security of all Somalis.
End of Patience
Amid such internal divisions inside TFG, the Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles Zenawi announced in an interview with the Financial Times that the existence of his troops in Somalia is not open-ended.
“Our obligation towards peace in Somalia is only one aspect," Meles said. “The operation has been extremely expensive so we will have to balance the domestic pressures on the one hand and pressures in Somalia on the other and try to come up with a balanced solution.”
“We didn't anticipate the international community would be happy riding the Ethiopian horse and flogging it at the same time." President Zenawi added.
Zinawi’s words were translated in double meaning. On the one hand, they appear as simple political manoeuvres to threaten the conflicting Somali government officials and push them to end their internal disputes. On the other hand, Zenawi’s words can also express a serious Ethiopian plan to withdraw from Somalia after two years of failing to establish peace in that country.
Sources close to the Ethiopian military recently confirmed that some Ethiopian tanks were loaded from Mogadishu port and sent to Ethiopia through Berbera port in the northern Somalia break-away Republic of Somaliland.
Divisions among members of Somali TFG are seen to benefit the Islamic opposition, especially Alhabab, which rejected the Djibuti agreement and insists on fighting both the government and Ethiopian forces.
Mohamed Ibrahim Fanah, an aid worker and political analyst, said: “This is a moment for the Islamist groups; Ethiopians are worried and want to escape instead of protecting the transitional government whose members are now busy with their conflict of interest.”
The Islamist opposition has vowed to intensify attacks on both government and Ethiopian forces in the wholly month of Ramadan. Abdulrahim Issa Addow, one spokesman of the militants said: “The more we fight while fasting for the sake of Allah, the more we succeed."
Fanah said the dispute among TFG members, followed by Ethiopian announcement of a possible withdrawal, is a clear sign of TFG’s failure, its Ethiopian backers and the United States that backs it behind the shades.
In the last 30 days, the TFG suffered excessive blows from attacks by the Alshabab who intensified their attacks and captured several strategic towns in the south and the middle regions in Somalia.
TFG today suffers a new painful –and perhaps this time fatal – blow of clan-based internal disputes between its members. It started between President Abdulahi Yusuf Ahmed and his Prime Minister Nur “Adde” Hassan Hussein when the cabinet decided to fire the mayor of the capital city, Mogadishu.
The cabinet accused the mayor of taking anti-peace measures including attacks on civilians and business community, but the president called unconstitutional the decision of the prime minister to fire the mayor.
Amid the mediation talks in Ethiopia, the members of the parliament supporting the president proposed “no confidence vote” motion to unseat the prime minister, but the latter survived the vote. The members of the parliament supporting the prime minister then proposed their own motion to impeach the president; and this is still waiting the vote.
President Abdulahi Yusuf Ahmed, a former warlord and a leader of Darod clan mainly dominant in the north-west of the country, is seen to run a frontline of clannish feuds and to try to eliminate any powerful person from his rival Hawiye clan that may challenge him with the power sharing.
On the opposite, the Prime Minister Nur “Adde” Hassan Hussein –a former Red Crescent chief and member from Hawiye clan mainly dominant in the capital city in the south-central of the county – puts all his focus on challenging the president instead of the growing insecurity and the droughts that hit the whole nation.
“The prime minister and the leaders of the opposition groups who have negotiated a peace deal are all from the Hawiye clan; they want to unite and face against the Darod clan of the president,” Abdulrasak Hassan from the president’s office said.
Most members of the opposition Alshabab movement, stamped by the United States as a terrorist group, are said to belong to the president’s Darod clan. They rejected the Djibouti agreement between the TFG prime minister and the opposition Alliance for the Re-liberation of Somalia (ARS) who are both from the Hawiye clan.
The TFG president was not happy with the agreement concluded with the opposition, which did not include Alshabab, his clan brethren. Abdulrasak Hassan from the president’s office said, “We can’t accept negotiation among actors of one clan.”
But according to the prime minister’s office, a peace deal is essential and it should be supported because it will reduce the violence which, by its account, affects the Hawiye people the most. Abdi Moalim, a member of the Premier’s office said, “Darod politicians want to kill our [Hawiye] children and women and say they are terrorists.” Moalim said the government should not discriminate between clans and should work for the security of all Somalis.
End of Patience
Amid such internal divisions inside TFG, the Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles Zenawi announced in an interview with the Financial Times that the existence of his troops in Somalia is not open-ended.
“Our obligation towards peace in Somalia is only one aspect," Meles said. “The operation has been extremely expensive so we will have to balance the domestic pressures on the one hand and pressures in Somalia on the other and try to come up with a balanced solution.”
“We didn't anticipate the international community would be happy riding the Ethiopian horse and flogging it at the same time." President Zenawi added.
Zinawi’s words were translated in double meaning. On the one hand, they appear as simple political manoeuvres to threaten the conflicting Somali government officials and push them to end their internal disputes. On the other hand, Zenawi’s words can also express a serious Ethiopian plan to withdraw from Somalia after two years of failing to establish peace in that country.
Sources close to the Ethiopian military recently confirmed that some Ethiopian tanks were loaded from Mogadishu port and sent to Ethiopia through Berbera port in the northern Somalia break-away Republic of Somaliland.
Divisions among members of Somali TFG are seen to benefit the Islamic opposition, especially Alhabab, which rejected the Djibuti agreement and insists on fighting both the government and Ethiopian forces.
Mohamed Ibrahim Fanah, an aid worker and political analyst, said: “This is a moment for the Islamist groups; Ethiopians are worried and want to escape instead of protecting the transitional government whose members are now busy with their conflict of interest.”
The Islamist opposition has vowed to intensify attacks on both government and Ethiopian forces in the wholly month of Ramadan. Abdulrahim Issa Addow, one spokesman of the militants said: “The more we fight while fasting for the sake of Allah, the more we succeed."
Fanah said the dispute among TFG members, followed by Ethiopian announcement of a possible withdrawal, is a clear sign of TFG’s failure, its Ethiopian backers and the United States that backs it behind the shades.
In the last 30 days, the TFG suffered excessive blows from attacks by the Alshabab who intensified their attacks and captured several strategic towns in the south and the middle regions in Somalia.
