WORLD HOLDS BREATH AS ERITREA, DJIBOUTI EYE WAR[Nairobi] The Horn of Africa nations Eritrea and Djibouti overlook one of the world’s most important waterways and the international community fears a potential war between the two could impact on supertankers making their way west from the Gulf.
The country’s borders meet at Bab al-Mandab the narrow strait that separates the Gulf of Aden from the Red Sea route to the Suez Canal and the massive markets of Europe and North America.
Right now the United States and other powers are concerned the Horn and the waters around it are breeding grounds for piracy and Islamist-based terror, and they do not want to see another military front opening up in a region that has witnessed so much bloodshed in years past.
The African Union (AU) has denounced what is sees as Eritrea's campaign of violence against its neighbor, Djibouti, and warned it would not allow any African state to use force against another over colonial border integrity.
Eritrea has been edging closer to war with neighboring Djibouti since April this year. The extent of the military aggression between the two states has placed the Horn of Africa region in a dangerous situation, and is likely to involve the U.S., France and Ethiopia.
The U.S. has a military base in Djibouti, as does France, which had reportedly pledged to provide military hardware to assist Djibouti against Eritrea.
France is reported to have 2,900 soldiers stationed in Djibouti, backed by 10 attack helicopters and fighter planes, while the U.S. has 1,100 troops on Djiboutian soil. The U.S. is understood to be considering Djibouti as the possible location for a new military headquarters for its African operations.
The AU leaders, tasked with ensuring peace prevails in the continent, met at an Egyptian resort in A-Sheikh from June 30-July 1, and rejected Eritrea's bid to advance further into Djiboutian territory, saying every AU member was obligated to respect the territory of the other.
"The situation obtaining at the border between Djibouti and Eritrea and the tension which characterizes the relations between the two countries is a source of serious concern," a special report compiled by a technical wing of the AU stated.
Eritrea has been attempting a forceful seizure of Djiboutian territory after stationing its troops near the town Ras Doumeira since April 16 this year, leading to a brief exchange of hostilities with the Djiboutian army on June 10.
Djiboutian President Isma’il ‘Umar Guelleh, who has previously warned that his country would not entertain consistent exchanges of "war rhetoric with Eritrea," first sought the urgent intervention of the AU and the Arab League to stop Eritrea in April. Djibouti is a member of the Arab League, while Eritrea has observer status.
In May Guelleh warned the situation was becoming alarmingly dangerous, with his troops facing the Eritrean forces, although he noted the Eritreans appeared unlikely to wage war.
Eritrean troops invaded part of Djiboutian territory and dug trenches in the region of Ras Doumeira, leading to months of tension, which forced the Djiboutian foreign minister to write to the 15-member Peace and Security Council (PSC) of the AU.
Guelleh said he was ready to defend his national sovereignty against the Eritrean threats.
According to a confidential report compiled by PSC ambassadors, Djibouti first sought AU intervention in the looming border war with Eritrea on April 24, days after Eritrean troops invaded Ras Doumeira.
As a result, the PSC urgently deployed a team of experts to investigate the source of the tension between the two states. The AU mission left for Djibouti in early June where it conducted its investigations from June 5-9. However, its efforts to interview Eritrean officials, or obtain access to Eritrean territory failed.
The AU ambassadors recommended that the PSC denounce Eritrea's campaign of violence.
AU Commission President Jean Ping said, "I am deeply troubled by the appearance of another area of conflict in the Horn of Africa. I am referring to the prevailing situation at the borders between Djibouti and Eritrea," he told the African leaders meeting in Egypt on June 30.
"I should underscore the fact that the African Union has reacted swiftly to assist the parties to reach a peaceful settlement, in strict respect of the principles of our organization, which include refraining from the use of force to settle differences, and the obligation to respect borders inherited at independence."
Djiboutian military sources suggested the hostilities, which resulted in heavy casualties on both sides, broke out following Djibouti's refusal to hand over an Eritrean military deserter.
Eritrea, one of the few rogue states in Africa, has been making expansionist threats against its Horn of Africa neighbors. Its intentions of attacking Djibouti have been considered suicidal given Djibouti's Western leanings.
Djibouti hosts a French military base and has been acting as the United States’ security checkpoint for the Horn of Africa region, believed to be frequented by dangerous criminal elements suspected of planning major terror threats against Western interests.
Eritrea denies carrying out any military incursions into Djibouti. The two have been locked in a series of border-related altercations, mostly involving Djibouti's colonial power, France, and Italy, which unsuccessfully tried to colonize Ethiopia.
At the center of the current border dispute is what experts call “vague language” used in the border treaty signed between Italy and France in 1901.
Eritrea and Djibouti have clashed twice over their border at the southern end of the Red Sea. The last of the border wars, before the June 10 fighting, broke out in 1996.
The AU has asked Eritrea to back off its attempts to re-occupy Djiboutian territory, saying President Isaias Aferweki's regime must respect the sovereignty, territorial integrity and the independence of AU member states.
Eritrea has played down the existence of any border war with Djibouti, saying such claims are aimed at serving the strategic interests of the U.S., with Eritrean Information Ministry Spokesman Mebrahtu Asfaha calling the claims of a border war with Djibouti, an "evil design" to control the Red Sea basin.
Eritrea says it is bitterly opposed to the U.S. pursuing its strategic interests in the Horn of Africa region, largely through its support of its archenemy, the Ethiopian government.
The AU's Peace and Security Council has warned of serious consequences unless the organization mobilizes an urgent rescue mission to help stop the exchange of hostilities between the two states.
"The AU assembly (heads of state) should urge the two countries to exercise utmost restraint, resort to dialogue for the resolution of any bilateral dispute and lend their full cooperation to the efforts deployed in this regard," it stated.
The AU is faced with a list of limited choices. The first is to impose sanctions on Eritrea, but this will come, not on the basis of the border row, but on Eritrea's inability to pay its contributions to the AU.
Should Eritrea fall into the sanctions list, it would lose its seat in any of the deliberations carried out by the organization, formerly a club of Africa's self-styled dictators, now preaching good governance and democracy.
Meanwhile, Italy is bankrolling the AU to set up a special task force to demarcate borders at the center of long-standing disputes around the Horn of Africa region.
Italy has signed a $40-million aid package with the organization to set up the working units of the border-demarcation secretariat, which is expected to begin receiving submissions from African states.
"The border conflicts in Africa show that extra efforts are required to define the borders. We need to contribute to these programs more strategically. We need to contribute to these programs because peace and security are indivisible," according to Ramntane Lamamra, the AU peace and security commissioner.
Meanwhile, sources say top-level negotiations are underway to end the border row between Eritrea and Djibouti. However, Djiboutian military officials maintain that tension is still high.
Both sides to the border conflict have claimed victory in the first round of fighting, with Djibouti arguing that Eritrea has suffered major casualty and military-hardware losses.
Eritrea has declined to discuss its involvement in the war with the media, and continues to deny the existence of hostilities.
All the while, the American and French troops based in Djibouti are carefully monitoring developments. They fear that an outbreak of large-scale hostilities will drag them into yet another conflict in the Horn of Africa, which has not seen peace in decades.
By Daniel Ooko on Monday
