(Medeshi) 14 Aug, 2008 If you are a politician, and election season is upon you, then you know it is time to engage in the charm offensive, it is time to promise the moon, the sky and everything in between. It is time to show your best side, your softer side, your caring side, it is time to proclaim that you feel everyone’s pain so that they may cast their votes to you and have you get elected or even re-elected into office.
These are universal rules of behavior for anyone running for office and relying on the people’s vote to get there. As practical and necessary these rules may be, they do not apply in Somaliland as we watch Dahir Rayale’s administration flex its unilateral muscles.
Despite this being an election year, this administration has ignored the constitution and jailed prominent politicians for daring to be politicians and engage in political activities such as the creation of a new political association. An act protected by the constitution of the country. In order to silence criticism from independent sources it muscled its way into the inner working of a human right organization (Shuro-net) by actually replacing the existing board with one of its own creation.
This administration disregarded the constitution again and illegally extended its hold on power by utilizing the Guurti (the Upper House) whose role has been reduced to nothing more than a mouthpiece for the president since they accepted an illegal extension of their term in office from the president. Members of the press core are constantly harassed and jailed, and public demonstrations sparked by ill conceived policies are routinely met with deadly force.
If all of that was not bad enough, this administration continues to exercise a chock hold on the economy and commerce of this very poor country by forcefully enforcing destructive monopolies such as the one imposed on fuel importation (only Total can import fuel) and livestock exports (only Aljaberi can export livestock). Corruption is rampant; there is no accountability or any practical means to verify how money is spent or even how much is raised from various unilateral contracts the government issues to third parties and taxes levied on the populous.
In an interview conducted over the phone by EAPI of Mr. Abdillahi Mohamed and Hussein “Gacmadheere”, (the Chairman and the Vice chairman of the cooperative of live stock exporters), they indicated to us that all they wanted was to have the ability to earn their living in a fair manner guided by the free market forces instead of dictates and imposed price control monopolies from the Rayale administration. As early as last week there were over 15000 heads of livestock stranded in Berbera because the government refused to allow the merchants to sell their stock to anyone other than Aljaberi, a Saudi merchant.
The question that begs an answer is why? How can a politician who seeking one’s vote act in such a manner and hope to get re-elected back into office? Are the people of Somaliland so disenfranchised that the true and tried divide and rule old bag will once again do its magic trick and foster more divisions? Or does Rayale know something we don’t know?
A close examination of the situation on the ground reveals that;
• With the creation of six new regions in Somaliland, the president is banking on extending his influence by appointing a number of new positions, such as governors, mayors and a number of different offices where most if not all the decision makers will be under his direct payroll.
• Five of the seven election commission members are believed to be under the presidents direct control (3 appointed by him, and 2 appointed by the Guurti), giving him a clear majority if and when disputes arise. This combined with the anemic resistance the opposition parties have displayed so far against his strong arm tactics leaves most observers to think that the president is in a strong position to sway this entity to favor his positions.
• The president’s influence over the Guurti and the Supreme Court is such that for all practical purposes these branches of the government have morphed into an extension of the Executive Branch and will support the president as it was clearly demonstrated in the recent controversial ruling issued by the Guurti extending the president’s term in office after his elected term expired on the 15 of May 2008.
• Contrary to established precedent and the Constitution, holding the presidential elections before local elections are held removes from the scene any possibility of new players injecting new ideas and energy and possibly restructure the electoral map. Freezing the three existing parties to remain the only one’s to take part in this election process is an act agreed upon by all the three national parties to the detriment of the political process of the country.
• Having a political, economical or legal dispute with the government can land someone in jail for jeopardizing national security and endangering the peace. Nothing stops the government to act in any fashion it deems appropriate including using live ammunition to disperse demonstration as we all witness the country turn into a police State where the president enjoys absolute powers.
In the coming election it does not take much imagination to deduce that when someone is holding these kinds of cards, the outcome is going to be a predictable one. What is not known is what happens the morning after the election results are released. With the pitfalls of a voter registration that may or may not be complete by election time, the likelihood of unregistered voters voting or not voting and the usual other possible voter irregularities that come with every election there is a good chance of a disputed election in the making in Somaliland, and with a winner take all system, there is going to be very little room for a negotiated power sharing solution, because in Somaliland there is no Prime Minister and the presidency is the only office that matters.
Judging from past experience, this government does not like to be questioned, and is much more comfortable dictating than considering opposing views. The chances of Rayale accepting defeat at the polls are very unlikely, and equally challenging is the fact that Kulmiye may not be as willing to concede losing this election as they were the last time around. With an election Commission appearing less than competent and less independent every day, the chances for this body to mediate and find a credible answer is also another remote possibility. So, what happens when the fateful day arrives?
After the dust settles down and the brink has been reached, the matter will be handed over to the elders, (not the “Guurti”, that body is no longer viewed as an honest broker) and how and where these elders take the nation is where Somaliland will end up landing
Despite its bravado, this government constantly relies on traditional elders to come to its rescue every time it finds itself in hot water. Case and point, whenever lives are lost through government actions, no one sees the inside of a court, no charges are brought against the shooters, blood money is simply paid by the government and elders take of the rest. This arraignment is of course a one way street, because when elders take their grievances to him, they are summarily dismissed and instructed to safeguard the peace without having their issue addressed.
Safeguarding the peace in Somaliland means no one can oppose the government, because while the government can transgress on anyone’s peace, freedom and livelihood, the people’s role is to accept such transgressions in perpetuity if they are to have a nation.
This of course is a false perception and can be easily discarded like a house of cards, because the fact is that there can not be a war or peace in Somaliland without the active involvement and consent of the clan elders.
No one in Somaliland is itching for a new civil war, that it is why the president is constantly raising the specter of Armageddon in order to get away with all that he has been able to so far.
The question is how much longer will the people buy this distorted view of his reality?Source: East Africa Policy Institute.
www. eastafricapi.com
Responsible comments encouraged
http://us.mc568.mail.yahoo.com/mc/compose?to=info@eastafricapi.com This e-mail address is being protected from spambots, you need JavaScript enabled to view it
These are universal rules of behavior for anyone running for office and relying on the people’s vote to get there. As practical and necessary these rules may be, they do not apply in Somaliland as we watch Dahir Rayale’s administration flex its unilateral muscles.
Despite this being an election year, this administration has ignored the constitution and jailed prominent politicians for daring to be politicians and engage in political activities such as the creation of a new political association. An act protected by the constitution of the country. In order to silence criticism from independent sources it muscled its way into the inner working of a human right organization (Shuro-net) by actually replacing the existing board with one of its own creation.
This administration disregarded the constitution again and illegally extended its hold on power by utilizing the Guurti (the Upper House) whose role has been reduced to nothing more than a mouthpiece for the president since they accepted an illegal extension of their term in office from the president. Members of the press core are constantly harassed and jailed, and public demonstrations sparked by ill conceived policies are routinely met with deadly force.
If all of that was not bad enough, this administration continues to exercise a chock hold on the economy and commerce of this very poor country by forcefully enforcing destructive monopolies such as the one imposed on fuel importation (only Total can import fuel) and livestock exports (only Aljaberi can export livestock). Corruption is rampant; there is no accountability or any practical means to verify how money is spent or even how much is raised from various unilateral contracts the government issues to third parties and taxes levied on the populous.
In an interview conducted over the phone by EAPI of Mr. Abdillahi Mohamed and Hussein “Gacmadheere”, (the Chairman and the Vice chairman of the cooperative of live stock exporters), they indicated to us that all they wanted was to have the ability to earn their living in a fair manner guided by the free market forces instead of dictates and imposed price control monopolies from the Rayale administration. As early as last week there were over 15000 heads of livestock stranded in Berbera because the government refused to allow the merchants to sell their stock to anyone other than Aljaberi, a Saudi merchant.
The question that begs an answer is why? How can a politician who seeking one’s vote act in such a manner and hope to get re-elected back into office? Are the people of Somaliland so disenfranchised that the true and tried divide and rule old bag will once again do its magic trick and foster more divisions? Or does Rayale know something we don’t know?
A close examination of the situation on the ground reveals that;
• With the creation of six new regions in Somaliland, the president is banking on extending his influence by appointing a number of new positions, such as governors, mayors and a number of different offices where most if not all the decision makers will be under his direct payroll.
• Five of the seven election commission members are believed to be under the presidents direct control (3 appointed by him, and 2 appointed by the Guurti), giving him a clear majority if and when disputes arise. This combined with the anemic resistance the opposition parties have displayed so far against his strong arm tactics leaves most observers to think that the president is in a strong position to sway this entity to favor his positions.
• The president’s influence over the Guurti and the Supreme Court is such that for all practical purposes these branches of the government have morphed into an extension of the Executive Branch and will support the president as it was clearly demonstrated in the recent controversial ruling issued by the Guurti extending the president’s term in office after his elected term expired on the 15 of May 2008.
• Contrary to established precedent and the Constitution, holding the presidential elections before local elections are held removes from the scene any possibility of new players injecting new ideas and energy and possibly restructure the electoral map. Freezing the three existing parties to remain the only one’s to take part in this election process is an act agreed upon by all the three national parties to the detriment of the political process of the country.
• Having a political, economical or legal dispute with the government can land someone in jail for jeopardizing national security and endangering the peace. Nothing stops the government to act in any fashion it deems appropriate including using live ammunition to disperse demonstration as we all witness the country turn into a police State where the president enjoys absolute powers.
In the coming election it does not take much imagination to deduce that when someone is holding these kinds of cards, the outcome is going to be a predictable one. What is not known is what happens the morning after the election results are released. With the pitfalls of a voter registration that may or may not be complete by election time, the likelihood of unregistered voters voting or not voting and the usual other possible voter irregularities that come with every election there is a good chance of a disputed election in the making in Somaliland, and with a winner take all system, there is going to be very little room for a negotiated power sharing solution, because in Somaliland there is no Prime Minister and the presidency is the only office that matters.
Judging from past experience, this government does not like to be questioned, and is much more comfortable dictating than considering opposing views. The chances of Rayale accepting defeat at the polls are very unlikely, and equally challenging is the fact that Kulmiye may not be as willing to concede losing this election as they were the last time around. With an election Commission appearing less than competent and less independent every day, the chances for this body to mediate and find a credible answer is also another remote possibility. So, what happens when the fateful day arrives?
After the dust settles down and the brink has been reached, the matter will be handed over to the elders, (not the “Guurti”, that body is no longer viewed as an honest broker) and how and where these elders take the nation is where Somaliland will end up landing
Despite its bravado, this government constantly relies on traditional elders to come to its rescue every time it finds itself in hot water. Case and point, whenever lives are lost through government actions, no one sees the inside of a court, no charges are brought against the shooters, blood money is simply paid by the government and elders take of the rest. This arraignment is of course a one way street, because when elders take their grievances to him, they are summarily dismissed and instructed to safeguard the peace without having their issue addressed.
Safeguarding the peace in Somaliland means no one can oppose the government, because while the government can transgress on anyone’s peace, freedom and livelihood, the people’s role is to accept such transgressions in perpetuity if they are to have a nation.
This of course is a false perception and can be easily discarded like a house of cards, because the fact is that there can not be a war or peace in Somaliland without the active involvement and consent of the clan elders.
No one in Somaliland is itching for a new civil war, that it is why the president is constantly raising the specter of Armageddon in order to get away with all that he has been able to so far.
The question is how much longer will the people buy this distorted view of his reality?Source: East Africa Policy Institute.
www. eastafricapi.com
Responsible comments encouraged
http://us.mc568.mail.yahoo.com/mc/compose?to=info@eastafricapi.com This e-mail address is being protected from spambots, you need JavaScript enabled to view it
