Landlocked Ethiopia forging road links with Kenya, Sudan and Somaliland

Medeshi

Landlocked Ethiopia forging road links with Kenya, Sudan and Somaliland
Wed Apr 1, 2009
ADDIS ABABA (Reuters) - Landlocked Ethiopia is forging better road links with its neighbours Sudan and Kenya to ease dependence on the Red Sea port of Djibouti, a government official said on Wednesday.
"The road linkage with Kenya and Sudan would help landlocked Ethiopia export and import goods through Mombassa and Port Sudan ports at relatively less cost than Djibouti," said Samson Wondimu, head of public relations at the Ethiopian Road Authority (ERA).
Ethiopia had to pay an extra $22 million in 2008 on top of the $700 million it pays annually in port fees to Djibouti. The Red Sea port has served as Ethiopia's main sea gateway since it lost Assab and Massawa when Eritrea won independence.
Ethiopian businessmen have appealed to the government to seek alternative, cheaper routes through which they can export and import goods, according to the Addis Ababa Chamber of Commerce and Sectoral Association.
Samson said Ethiopia had completed preliminary study to asphalt the 310 kms (194 miles) road linking Hager-Mariam with Moyale, the border town with Kenya to the south.
The African Development Bank (AfDB) has reacted positively to Ethiopia's $100 million loan request to upgrade the highway to Kenya, Samson said.
The road south from Moyale, however, is unsurfaced for more than 500 kms until it reaches the Kenyan town of Isiola and is one of the worst highways in the country. The government has recently begun improving a stretch north of Isiola.
Ethiopia has already built a modern 880 kms highway linking the capital with the town of Metema on the northern border with Sudan, he said. This provides an outlet via Port Sudan.
"This highway serves for the export of Ethiopia's oil seeds and for the import of fuel," he said.
Samson said Ethiopia has also completed construction of a highway linking Somaliland's port of Berbera with eastern Ethiopia. Berbera port is being used for the import of food aid as well as other imported goods.
The nation's roads have suffered decades of neglect but the government has said the network's expansion is a top priority, Crumbling or overloaded infrastructure is seen as an obstacle to economic development in many African countries.

Gaza orphans in the spotlight

Medeshi

Gaza orphans in the spotlight
GAZA CITY, 1 April 2009 (IRIN) - An estimated 1,346 children were left without one or more of their parents as a result of the recent 23-day Israeli assault on Gaza, according to Islamic Relief in Gaza.
Photo: Erica Silverman/IRIN
Two-year-old Ahmed from the Al-Tufa area of Gaza City lost his father during the recent conflict. His aunt, pictured with him, and uncle are now his primary caretakers
An orphan is defined by Islamic Relief as a child under 18 who has lost the parent considered the head of the household, most often the father, according to a child welfare programme manager for Islamic Relief Mahmoud in Gaza, Abudraz. The official UNICEF definition of an orphan is a child who has lost one or both parents.
There are currently about 5,200 orphans under Islamic Relief’s definition in Gaza.
“There has been a dramatic increase in [the number of] requests for sponsorship [of such children] in Gaza,” Abudraz said.
Over 500 such requests have been made recently and Islamic Relief has responded positively to 200 of them. Eligible orphans must be under 14 and in the care of a low-income family (earning 1,000 shekels - US$240 - per month or less) with more than four members.
Extended families in Gaza cannot support the orphans in the long term, said Abudraz.
Food, cash aid

Two-year-old twins Ahmed and Samia (their guardian declined to give their family name) from the al-Tufa area of Gaza City lost their father on 14 January. Their uncle, Mahmoud, is now their primary caretaker after their mother began working as a janitor for 400 shekels ($100) per month.
Mahmoud, a former police officer, is now disabled after having been wounded by an Israeli bomb. He and his wife already have seven children, two of whom are also disabled.
“I care for the twins as if they are my own, but I only earn 1,400 shekels (about $336) a month [from a disability allowance],” said Mahmoud, standing outside his home, which was shelled during the offensive.
The twins receive food coupons and 200 shekels (about $50) each per month from Islamic Relief.
About six children lost both of their parents and about 1,300 children lost one of their parents during the recent conflict, according to Baker al-Torukmane, an attorney for the Palestinian Centre for Democracy and Conflict Resolution (PCDCR). The Centre provides psychological and legal counselling for orphans and surviving parents.
Al-Salah Islamic Society in Gaza is providing emergency food baskets and 100-200 shekels ($50-100) per month to several hundred of the new orphans. Their website [www.alsalah.org] requests sponsors for the orphans. Other Palestinian NGOs are also providing emergency cash assistance and food packages.
The UN Children’s Fund (UNICEF) is currently conducting an assessment of the number of orphaned children in Gaza.

Piracy brings rich booty to Somalia

Medeshi April 1, 2009
Piracy brings rich booty to Somalia
von Robert Wright
Hijacking has developed into a highly structured social and business model
ANZEIGE
After the ransom for the Sirius Star, the highest-profile victim of Somali piracy, was delivered in January, an impromptu beach party started near Hobyu, the southern Somali town where it had been moored.
According to crew members of the Vella Gulf, a US warship which spent months watching the Sirius Star and the Faina, another captured ship, children ran around the beach, bonfires were lit and the pirates' associates brought four-wheel drive vehicles on to the sand.
The partygoers had come for their share of the $3m (€2.4m, £2.1m) ransom the owners paid to release the crude oil tanker, the largest vessel ever hijacked. Some of those present would have seized the ship in the first place and others would have supplied it with food, according to observers. More senior members of the pirate gang would also have received a cut.

The Sirius Star attack is just one example of recent security breaches
The threat of attacks like that on the Sirius Star has emerged in the last 18 months as the most serious security issue confronting the world shipping industry. According to the International Maritime Bureau, there were 111 attacks and 42 successful hijackings off Somalia during 2008.
The extra insurance costs and safety concerns are driving shipping companies to spend millions of dollars on diversions, extra security and more expensive insurance.
Yet the pirates' business practices are effective primarily because of their simplicity. In a country where banking has ceased to function after more than a decade of chaos and in the wake of US anti-money laundering sanctions, everything is done by cash. Tens of thousands of $100 notes are airdropped as ransom payments and the cars, houses, televisions and wedding parties they fund are bought with cash.
The meaning of a pirate party
The party shows how piracy has become embedded in Somalia's complex society. One western military analyst says the pirates now employ "accountants" to divide up ransoms.
There are carefully worked out formulae determining how much is paid to everyone, from the lowliest guards to gang leaders. The pirates follow a code of conduct which proscribes, for example, the harming of crewmen, with fines for miscreants.
Personal ties and talent together decide how careers progress, according to Mark Genung, captain of the USS Vella Gulf. "If you're a good pirate, I suppose you get good pirate jobs," he says. "If you're a bad pirate, I guess you get bad pirate jobs."
Most significantly, the delivery of cash ransoms and their division leave no trace on systems that track and disrupt organised crime financing.
"You can't check to see where the money is going," the military analyst says.
Where did piracy come from?
Contemporary Somali piracy is generally agreed to have sprung up earlier this decade as the Hawiye clan, based around Haradere in central Somalia, tried to deter illegal dumping and fishing. They graduated from attacking vessels to seizing them for ransom.
They first attracted widespread attention with the attack on the Seabourn Spirit, a cruise ship, around 115km off the Somali coast, in 2005. That failed attempt showed the pirates already had some "mother ships" - vessels used as floating bases and able to go far further off the coast than the pirates' small attack skiffs.
The Hawiye abandoned piracy at least temporarily when the Haradere area fell in 2006 to Somalia's short-lived, anti-piracy Union of Islamic Courts government. The Darod, with strongholds around Eyl on the east coast and Bosasso and Caluula in Puntland on the Gulf of Aden, then stepped in.
Abdullahi Yusuf Ahmed, a Puntlander, moved south to strongholds of Somalia's transitional federal government when he was appointed president in 2004, according to a European diplomatic expert on the region. Many of the militiamen who had kept Puntland peaceful accompanied him.
"That tended to give a lot of freedom of action to local clan groups in Puntland, who were able to engage in piracy because there was less supervision," the diplomatic expert says.
The initial group of Darod pirates recruited others. The military analyst calls the system a pyramid scheme, where older members move up in seniority as newer recruits join.
"They get to the point where they don't have to go out to sea any more."

Pirates are becoming more and more professionalPirates also pay other, more senior members of their clans and local political and military groups, according to Roger Middleton, a researcher in the Africa programme at the UK's Chatham House.
"Money goes to the senior members of your clan, in much the same way that if you were a successful businessman you would be expected to help those people out," he says.
The Darod may have made the business more democratic, according to Daren Dickson, a senior manager at Drum Cussac, a risk consultancy. They insist on cash delivery, whereas ransoms were previously paid through banks or the informal Hawala money transfer system and controlled by warlords.
"The actual clan members now get the cut, rather than just the warlord taking it," Mr Dickson says.
According to the diplomatic expert, the sagas of the Faina and Sirius Star suggest experience is making some pirates more sophisticated and ambitious. He believes the pirates were alerted to the presence of the Faina, which was laden with tanks and other weaponry. Captain Genung believes the shipment may have been captured by chance.
The pirates grasped the Faina's importance quickly and eventually obtained $3.2m, far more than the $1m that had been standard. The same group - an unusual mixture of Hawiye and Darod - then captured the Sirius Star 420 nautical miles off Somalia's east coast.
Darod groups operating from Puntland are adapting to the significant military presence in the Gulf of Aden. They often now launch several attacks, one after the other, to swamp the ability of nearby naval vessels to respond.
Making life tougher for pirates
Captain Genung vows to adapt to meet such changes and points out that the military effort is already making pirates' lives more difficult. The Vella Gulf helped to capture two groups of pirates totalling 16 men on February 11 and 12, while the Russian Navy has also caught some pirates in the Gulf of Aden.
However, no one involved believes such action can resolve a problem with its roots in the long-term collapse of the Somali state. Those who captured the pirates on February 11 and 12 say they must have been desperate to put to sea in such leaky, dangerous craft. Anything other than a lasting political solution on shore will only ever be a "sticking plaster", according to the military analyst.
"You have hungry people who don't have any legitimate way to make money," she says. "They think, 'We want a piece of this pie'."

London gears up for G20 'battle'

Medeshi April 1, 2009
Focus THE 2009 G20 LONDON SUMMIT
London gears up for G20 'battle'
By Hamish Macdonald in London
Police and security forces are gearing up for a day of protests before the G20 summit in London, with this year's demonstrations expected to contain a new, angrier, element.
For building contractors suffering as a result of the current economic squeeze, the G20 summit has been good for business.
The City of London, the square mile that marks the financial centre of the capital, has been a hive of activity over the past week.
Builders have moved in to board-up shopfronts and protect doors and windows from the expected arrival of thousands of protesters.
This G20 is proving to be an epic summit, and not just because of the sheer scale of the problem the world leaders are trying to solve.
The security operation, which according to some estimates will cost up to of $30m, will see London transformed into one of the most heavily guarded cities on the planet.
'Sterile' zone
There will be 84,000 police "man-hours" devoted to Operation Glencoe, which will rely upon six separate police forces, drawing in officers from the regions surrounding London.
The location of the G20 meeting itself, the ExCel centre in the east of the city, will apparently be a "sterile" zone.
The venue is considered highly secure, with water on one side that are patrolled by the police with marine launches.
Checkpoints and other cordons will also be in place and once opened, the focus will turn to protecting the delegates' journeys in and out of the centre.
But beyond this area the city could become a battleground, with thousands of protesters facing off against the extensive security apparatus.
The biggest protest is planned for Wednesday, the day before the actual summit.
'Lunatic fringe'
There is a veritable feast of marches planned, representing just about every lobby group imaginable and they will not be confined to one area.
The groups range from "Youth March for Jobs" and "Jobs not Bombs" to "Climate Camp".
All of them are anti-establishment and many of them have spent years being branded by the media and politicians as "the lunatic fringe".
But times have changed and suddenly these activists are feeling vindicated.
Many of those protesting feel that the spiralling global economic crisis has given them the right to say "we told you so!".
This will not be your bog-standard day of anti-globalisation protest action because suddenly the people holding the banners do not just represent themselves and a small band of academic elite, they represent those thousands of people losing jobs, losing homes and losing faith in the system.
A few pin-striped bankers, or at least recently unemployed bankers, are also expected to take to the streets, with placards in their hands.
In total, up to 100,000 protesters are expected to turn up on Wednesday.
The biggest potential flash point seems likely to be outside the Bank of England, where three or four separate marches are expected to converge around lunchtime.
In casual clothes
Staff working in the financial sector surrounding the central bank have been told to turn up to work in casual clothes instead of their usual suits.
They have been encouraged to bring a packed lunch, not to book outside meetings and alter their travel times in a bid to avoid the angry mobs.
There seems to be a sense that widespread violence during these protests is inevitable, but that may not be the case.
Both the police and the protesters are demonstrating immense organisational skills, which could keep the day under control.
Either way, the demonstrations will be big and loud, and people will take notice. Perhaps this time their calls won't be ignored.
AJZ

Why the War Crimes?

Medeshi April 1, 2009
Why the War Crimes?
By : Harry Shearer
Actor, author, director, satirist, musician, radio host, playwright, multi-media artist
Read More: Abu-Zubaydah, Afghanistan, Bush Administration Torture, Dick Cheney, Dick Cheney Torture, John Ashcroft, Richard Clarke, Ron Suskind, Torture, Politics News
Sunday's Washington Post article, recapitulating much of Ron Suskind's earlier reporting, that Abu Zubaydah wasn't the feared number 3 of Al-Qaeda, and that the intelligence he spilled after being waterboarded was all junk, was--or should be--the last step in removing the scales from the eyes of all but the Cheney retainers. Along with the outing of the International Red Cross report, which clearly and unequivocally called "enhanced interrogation" what it is--torture, the Post piece and Dan Froomkin's accompanying blog post make the case a slam dunk that our previous administration committed war crimes.
But why? Why persist in a policy that, according to the Post, wasted the time of FBI and CIA officers chasing down false leads, wasting millions, and didn't make us any safer, all the while proudly boasting the opposite? Col. Larry Wilkerson, former Chief of Staff to former Secretary of State Colin Powell, offered a partial answer in a blog post three weeks ago. In it, Wilkerson asserts that high officials at State knew early on that most Guantanamo inmates were guilty of nothing more than being in the wrong zip code, people who were rounded up and delivered to Americans because we were paying cash money for bodies in and around Afghanistan, and warlords and their friends were more than eager to settle some scores while replenishing the old coffers.
More importantly, he suggests why the knowledge that "the worst of the worst" were really innocent was no impediment to the continued incarceration and interrogation of these people: an intelligence program called Mosaic, in which even innocents could contribute useful shreds of information--where were the mailboxes on their street?--that could combine with actual intel to paint a broader picture.
That doesn't explain, however, the case of Abu Zubaydah, known to higher-ups to be wasting time and resources with bogus intel just to stop the horror. Why persist with the charade? Froomkin cites one possible reason:
But according to (author Ron) Suskind, even as Bush was publicly proclaiming Zubaida's malevolence, he was privately being briefed about doubts within the intelligence community regarding Zubaida's significance -- and mental stability. Suskind quotes the following exchange between Bush and then-CIA director George Tenet:
"'I said he was important,' Bush said to Tenet at one of their daily meetings. 'You're not going to let me lose face on this, are you?'
"'No Sir, Mr. President.'"
Well, he does have a nice face, shame to lose any of it. More substantively, the Bush administration had one clear, unambiguous message after 9/11. You may remember the mantra. It was, "everything has changed". It was specious, of course, most of our lives are resolutely the same as before the attack, except for the necessity of putting up with bad security theater at the airport while cargo whizzes through our seaports uninspected. But the underlying message of that mantra was that 9/11 didn't represent a failure of the government to connect the dots, to be alert to, and correlate the fusillade of warnings that was famously setting terrorism advisor Richard Clarke's "hair on fire" in the summer of 2001, that John Ashcroft's reported statement to the interim head of the FBI that he didn't want to hear any more warnings about terrorism didn't reflect a systemic failure.
In the post-9/11 world, the gloves had to come off. The fault was in the silly restrictions that prevented tough-minded people from doing what had to be done. If the criticism from the 9/11 commission and other critics was that the dots hadn't been connected, in the new world we would connect anything that even looked like dots, and where there weren't dots, we'd create some. You want dots? We got 'em.
So, an administration that showed a public face that professed a belief that every human life was sacred was prepared to treat innumerable humans as nothing more than fodder for the dot machine, merely to prove that the horrific attack in its eighth month in office couldn't possibly have been its fault.
So the mantra from Bush supporters the past year has been "he kept us safe for seven and a half years," as if the first half year doesn't count, because "everything has changed."
That's a credible defense in a war-crimes trial, right?
Around the Web:
The Raw Story Cheney admits authorizing detainee's torture
Think Progress » Cheney Defends Torture: It ‘Would Have Been ...
White House Denies Cheney Endorsed Torture - CBS News
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HUMAN RIGHTS COUNCIL EXTENDS MANDATE OF INDEPENDENT EXPERT ON SOMALIA

Medeshi
HUMAN RIGHTS COUNCIL CLOSES TENTH SESSION, EXTENDING MANDATE OF INDEPENDENT EXPERT ON SOMALIA
Also Adopts Resolutions on Human Rights Situation in the Democratic Republic Of Congo and on Racial Discrimination, Among Others
27 March 2009
This afternoon, the Human Rights Council concluded its tenth session after adopting seven resolutions on human rights bodies and mechanisms; racism, racial discrimination, xenophobia and related forms of intolerance, follow-up and implementation of the Durban Declaration and Programme of Action; and on technical assistance and capacity building, notably extending the mandate of the Independent Expert on the human rights situation in Somalia for six months. The report of the tenth session of the Human Rights Council was also adopted ad referendum
Martin Ihoeghian Uhomoibhi, President of the Human Rights Council, in concluding remarks, recalled that, when it opened earlier this month with a High-Level Segment, some 70 dignitaries had spoken and, for the first time in the history of the Council, the President of the General Assembly had addressed the Council. In the course of the session, the Council adopted some 34 resolutions and decisions related to various issues in the field of human rights. Most of those texts had been adopted by consensus. The Council also appointed a new Special Rapporteur on the situation of human rights in Cambodia, elected four members of the Advisory Committee and had created a new mandate: the Independent Expert in the field of cultural rights.
In a resolution on the United Nations Declaration on Human Rights Education and Training, the Council welcomed the initiative of the Platform for Human Rights Education and Training to organize a seminar to further reflection on elements to be included in the draft declaration; and requested the Advisory Committee to submit its draft Declaration on Human Rights Education and Training to the Council for consideration at its thirteenth session in March 2010.
Concerning the Social Forum, the Council requested that the next meeting be held during 2009, in Geneva, and that it should focus on negative impacts of economic and financial crises on efforts to combat poverty; national anti-poverty programmes; and international assistance and cooperation in combating poverty; and decided that the Social Forum would remain open to the participation of representatives of United Nations Member States and all other interested stakeholders.
By the resolution on publication of reports completed by the Sub-Commission on the Promotion and Protection of Human Rights, adopted with 29 votes in favour, 3 against, and 15 abstentions, the Council decided that all reports of the Sub-Commission mandated by the Commission on Human Rights that had been completed and submitted to the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights would be issued as United Nations documents.
In the resolution on elaboration of complementary standards to the International Convention on the Elimination of All Forms of Racial Discrimination, adopted by a vote of 34 in favour and 13 against, with no abstentions, the Council endorsed the road map adopted by the Ad Hoc Committee of the Human Rights Council on the Elaboration of Complementary Standards during the second part of its first session as a guiding framework document for all future work in that regard.
In a resolution entitled “From rhetoric to reality: a global call for concrete action against racism, racial discrimination, xenophobia and related intolerance”, the Council requested the Secretary-General to examine the challenges that had impeded the work of the Group of Five Independent Eminent Experts in fully discharging its mandate in following up on the implementation of the Durban Declaration and Programme of Action, and, in that regard, requested that the Council take appropriate action in accordance with its process of review, rationalization and improvement of mandates.
Concerning assistance to Somalia in the field of human rights, the Council invited the Independent Expert to continue his work till the end of September 2009 and encouraged in the meantime the Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights to reach a comprehensive agreement with Somali Authorities on technical cooperation and human and institutional capacity building at the national and regional level in the field of human rights in Somalia.
By the resolution on situation of human rights in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and the strengthening of technical cooperation and consultative services, adopted with 34 votes in favour, none against, and 14 abstentions, the Council welcomed the commitment of the Government to pursuing technical cooperation with the various thematic representatives and special rapporteurs; encouraged the Democratic Republic of the Congo to finalize the establishment process of a national commission for human rights; and called on the Office of the High Commissioner to increase and enhance its technical assistance programmes and activities, in consultation with the authorities.
Speaking in introduction of resolutions were Morocco, Cuba, the Czech Republic, on behalf of the European Union, South Africa, on behalf of the African Group, and Egypt, also on behalf of the African Group.
Speaking in general comments were Germany, Brazil, Chile and India.
Speaking in explanations of the vote before the vote were Bangladesh, Malaysia, the Russian Federation, Indonesia, Pakistan, the Philippines, Cuba, China, Germany, on behalf of the European Union, and Chile.
Japan, Brazil and Italy spoke in explanation of vote after the vote.
Concerned countries speaking today were Somalia and Democratic Republic of Congo.
After the adoption of all resolutions under all items the Observer States Singapore, Sri Lanka, Côte d’Ivoire, Spain, Turkey, Thailand and Algeria took the floor for to make general comments.
The eleventh session of the Human Rights Council will take place in Geneva from 2 to 18 June 2009.
Read full text here: http://www.unog.ch/80256EDD006B9C2E/(httpNewsByYear_en)/042684379605A48FC12575860050E986?OpenDocument

Somali opposition leader quits Eritrea for Sudan

Medeshi
Somali opposition leader quits Eritrea for Sudan
Tue Mar 31, 2009
Opposition leader in Sudanese capital
May go to Mogadishu to back new government
By Ibrahim Mohamed
MOGADISHU, March 31 (Reuters) - Somalia's hardline Islamist opposition leader Sheikh Hassan Dahir Aweys has quit self-imposed exile in Eritrea for neighbouring Sudan and may return to Mogadishu soon, Somali media said on Tuesday.
Aweys, 62, is on a U.S. list of terrorism suspects. He is a former chairman of the Islamic Courts Union that ruled Somalia's capital in 2006 until being ousted by Ethiopian troops.
He worked alongside his country's moderate Islamist president, Sheikh Sharif Ahmed, in the Islamic Courts and they later founded the Alliance for the Re-Liberation of Somalia.
Earlier this year, Ahmed was elected president by lawmakers at U.N.-hosted talks in Djibouti.
Radio stations in Mogadishu said Aweys was in Khartoum and held talks on Tuesday with two senior Sudanese officials. They said he was expected to fly to the Somali capital later to offer his support to Ahmed's new administration.
The endorsement of Aweys would be a boost for Ahmed, who faces the daunting task of trying to establish a new national security force and persuade heavily-armed Islamist guerrillas to back his government in the interests of peace.
But it could prove difficult for the United Nations and Western countries, which were once wary of Islamists being in power but now see Ahmed as the best hope for bringing peace to the failed Horn of Africa state after 18 years of violence.
A close ally of Aweys in Mogadishu, who asked not to be named, told Reuters Aweys was expected to arrive in the city within two weeks. The ally said Awey's plans were not yet clear, but he denied he had met any Sudanese officials.
One senior Somali source in Sudan confirmed Aweys was in the country, and said it was possible Ahmed might travel to Khartoum to meet him there. He gave no other details.
In a Reuters interview by telephone from Asmara earlier this month, Aweys denounced Ahmed as just another Ethiopian stooge and said he was a traitor to the Islamic faith. [ID:nL4915892]
Aweys is on the U.S. list of foreign terrorists, as is the hardline Islamist insurgent group al Shabaab, which controls much of southern and central Somalia. Ahmed has been pushing to have Aweys removed from the list.
Washington accuses Somalia's hardline Islamists of having ties to Osama bin Laden's al Qaeda and fears the chaotic country could be used by foreign groups to destabilise the region. (Additional reporting by Abdiaziz Hassan in Nairobi; Writing by Daniel Wallis; Editing by Giles Elgood)
Reuters

Migrant boat sinks off Libya, hundreds feared dead

Medeshi March 31, 2009
Migrant boat sinks off Libya, hundreds feared dead
By ABDEL MAJEED FERGANY and MAGGIE MICHAEL, Associated Press Writers
TRIPOLI, Libya – An overcrowded boat packed with migrants seeking a better life in Europe capsized in the stormy Mediterranean Sea off the coast of Libya, killing at least 21 and leaving 200 missing and feared dead four days after the accident, officials said Tuesday.
The boat, which a Libyan police official said had a capacity of just 50, overturned Friday in high winds with about 250 on board. Pictures showed six drowned bodies pulled from the water and stretched out among piles of nets and frayed ropes on the deck of a fishing boat that took part in the rescue.
"It is hard to imagine that there are survivors among the missing by now," said Laurence Hart, an official of The International Organization for Migration.
The missing boat was one of two struggling boats weighed down with migrants in the 60-degree waters on the most heavily traveled route for illegal migrants trying to reach Italy, Hart told The Associated Press.
The second boat, a flimsy vessel packed shoulder to shoulder with about 350 migrants, was rescued safely in the same area about 30 miles (50 kilometers) off land overnight into Sunday after an Italian merchant ship received its distress call, said Italian port authority spokesman Capt. Cosimo Nicastro.
Shown on Libyan television, most of the migrants appeared to be African men, with a few women and children in the group. One man on the rescued boat held a baby as he helped a woman struggling to walk.
Libyan police spokesman Col. Najy Abou Harous said only 21 people — the few passengers able to swim — were rescued from the missing craft.
"We found 21 other corpses. The rest are believed dead," he added. "The boat capacity is 40 to 50 and the smugglers packed it with hundreds. These are wooden fishing boats, not for sailing," Harous said.
Libyan officials released no information on the accident until Tuesday and by then, rescue efforts appeared to be over.
Harous said survivors told him a hole in the rickety boat may have caused it to sink.
"The first boat was rescued and is back to Tripoli. All of them are alive and safe," Hart said.
The rescued boat was spotted near an oil platform that notified Libyan authorities, Hart said.
According to Ron Redmond, chief spokesman for the U.N. High Commissioner for Refugees, this is the beginning of the smuggling season in the Mediterranean Sea.
Both boats carried migrants from Africa and the Middle East, Hart said.
Italy has been pressing Libya to crack down on illegal immigration, including with joint Libyan-Italian patrols against the thousands who try to cross the Mediterranean each year. Rome says that many of the illegal African immigrants who arrive in Italy transit through Libya.
According to figures from the IOM, some 33,000 people crossed from North Africa to the Italian island of Lampedusa in 2008 alone. Many of the boats are not seaworthy, and deadly accidents are frequent.

Somalia/Somaliland : Urgent help needed for drought-affected

Medeshi
Somalia/Somaliland : Urgent help needed for drought-affected
Date: 31 Mar 2009
NAIROBI/HARGEISA, 31 March 2009 (IRIN) - A severe drought that has gripped most of Somalia is worsening, with the affected populations needing urgent help after losing their livelihoods, Mahamud Abdi Ibrahim, the Minister for Humanitarian Affairs, told IRIN on 31 March.
"The reports we are getting are that people and livestock in drought-affected areas are dying of shortages of water, inadequate food, and lack pasture for livestock," he said. "It is really a very grim situation."
Ibrahim said the worst-affected regions were in Hiiraan, Galgadud, Mudug and parts of Bay and Bakol and Gedo, Middle and Lower Shabelle, and Lower and Middle Juba, in central and southern Somalia.
He urged humanitarian agencies "to come to the aid of those affected", saying the government had informed the agencies of the situation and was seeking "immediate and sustained assistance to save lives".
Haji Ahmadey Gurey, an elder in Torotorow in Lower Shabelle, said almost all the villages around the town were affected.
"Both farmers and nomads are suffering," he said. "We had no rains in the Deyr season [October-December]; now many nomads are coming into the town with nothing."
Gurey said lack of water and food was the main problem: "People are drinking untreated water, which is causing a lot of sickness and death."
Ibrahim said the government would help in facilitating access to affected areas, adding that where the security situation did not allow for access by foreign agencies, local partners should be used to deliver the aid.
"The government will help them identify local aid groups that can be trusted to deliver the aid," he said. "As government we don't care who delivers the assistance and where, so long as it reaches those in need. Now is the time to help if you are going to help."
Some rains reported
Meanwhile, in the self-declared republic of Somaliland, rains have started in parts of the region but the east remains drought-stricken.
"Some little rain was reported in the mountain areas of Erigavo [near the region's capital] and other areas, but it's not enough for the drought-affected region as a whole," Hashim Go'd, a journalist based in Borame, Awdal region, told IRIN.
He said the rains started on 28 March in Borame, Bon, Qulujeed and surrounding areas as well as in the capital, Hargeisa, and Gabiley and Sanag regions.
However, he said, there was still a lack of water in areas such as Jiidali, 35km southeast of Erigavo, Yufle, Goofa and Booca, with the local government sending four to five water trucks daily to these areas.
Mohamoud Awed Du'alle, the deputy mayor of Erigavo, said: "The situation is getting worse in these areas; animals such as cattle and sheep have already started dying in the region. Some families are taking their cattle to the urban areas to sell because of a lack of water."
Du'alle said the price of the water had increased dramatically in remote areas, as many donkeys used to ferry water have died.

Challenging the Dogma of Yesterday's Men

Medeshi March 30 ,2009

Challenging the Dogma of Yesterday's Men

Ann Pettifor
New Economist, Author, Debtonation - The Coming First World Debt Crisis

Read More: Alternative Economists, Economy, Imf, Larry Summers, Liberal Economists, President-Lula, Tim Geithner, Washington-Concensus, Business News

As I'm sure he expected, President Lula's "blue-eyed Banker" statement caused an international uproar. But Lula's point was beautifully illustrated last week when the CEOs of the major U.S. banks - 'Yesterday's Men' - emerged from the White House after being "wooed" by the Administration.
In her latest op-ed piece, Maureen Dowd called Lula's comment "...international lunacy." But if white bankers and economists have angered US citizens and roiled Congress, we should have the humility to understand how much more they have angered people in far-away countries - people suffering collateral damage from the crises in the US, Europe and Japan. Crises for which they have no responsibility.
For years the leaders of countries in these regions were lectured by white, largely Chicago-trained economists on how to run their economies. The same economists that encouraged de-regulated bank lending in the US, reviled government intervention, and encouraged the growth of AIG's reckless build-up of liabilities -- they also spread their dogma to poor countries.
In ways that were to foreshadow the crisis in the US, financial de-regulation policies were effectively imposed on poor countries by the 'Washington Consensus.' These policies led to frequent crises: to a massive build-up of liabilities and debt, to cuts in government spending, bank failures and even country (sovereign) insolvency.
And then double standards were, and are imposed. The US, Europe and Japan responded to their own financial crises by government (central banks) creating money (as opposed to borrowing money). This money is used to finance a fiscal stimulus, or government spending, to build and repair infrastructure, create jobs and moderate the crisis.
In contrast, poor countries are forbidden by the Washington-based International Monetary Fund from creating money, and instead are forced to do the reverse. That is: contract their economies by hiking, not lowering interest rates; by bankrupting, not bailing-out their finance and other industries. And by slashing government spending. This causes bankruptcies and unemployment to rise dramatically - leading to a further downward spiral, and to social and political unrest.
Last week the International Labour Organisation predicted that in 2009, between 40%-50% of men and women globally will not be able to earn enough to lift themselves and their families above the $2 a day poverty line.
Most of these men and women will be black and poor, and will have had no responsibility for the crisis. Indeed their political protests will have been drowned out by the power and influence of white, often faceless, foreign economists.
Their descent into deeper poverty will be fostering widespread anger -- and enthusiastic support for President Lula's comments. We would be foolish to dismiss their anger.
Instead we should be acknowledging the fact that this crisis is not of their making. And we should be encouraging an infusion of new blood into the economics profession -- to develop alternatives to the failed economics of these last three decades.In my last post I promised a list of economists and financial experts that President Obama could usefully call upon to challenge the advice he gets from Larry Summers, Tim Geithner et al.
Thanks in part to Huffpost, we have been hearing from many liberal economists that appear not to be part of the White House magic circle, namely: Paul Krugman; Dean Baker of CEPR; Prof. Joseph Stiglitz; Simon Johnson of MIT, Prof. Jeffrey Sachs; Prof. James Galbraith; Prof. Nouriel Roubini and Prof. Kenneth Rogoff.
But there are many more he could call upon. I would strongly suggest that he seeks the advice of that sage of Steady State Economics, Prof. Herman Daly of the University of Maryland. Prof. Daly is a 'new economist'; advised the World Bank in the 1980s, and has pioneered ecological economics. His time has come.
I strongly recommend that the President set aside time on his visit to London next week to meet up with Graham Turner a former City of London economist. He has carefully studied the experience of Japan's long debt-deflationary agony, has written a book about it and, to my mind, has a better grasp of the management of Quantititave Easing than many in central banks.
In preparing my list it rapidly became clear: as far as diversity goes, economics, banking and finance still looks very much like America in the 1950s. The journal of Blacks in Higher Education undertook a survey back in 1994 and found 11 black economists at the nation's 30 highest-ranked universities. By 2006, this had risen to a miserly 13.
I strongly advise the President to include all 13 in his deliberations. The broader the spectrum of advice, the better.
Next the President should look to the example of Iceland, where, after the catastrophic meltdown of the Icelandic economy, women are at the forefront of the clean-up. " It goes back to our Viking women" said one of them. "While the men were out there raping and pillaging, the women were running the show at home."
First on the list of women he should seek advice from would be our own Arianna Huffington, an economist and one of the 50 most influential figures shaping the direction of the upcoming G20 summit, according to London's Financial Times.
Then he should consult the woman who, way back in 1997, took on Greenspan, Summers and Rubin over the need to regulate derivatives. The woman who was roundly beaten by that triumvirate: Brooksley E. Born of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
Again the President might take the opportunity of his London trip to meet up with Prof. Victoria Chick Emeritus Professor of Economics, University of London. Prof. Chick is a Keynesian true to Keynes and an expert on Keynes's advice to Roosevelt's administration in the 1930s. Advice that helped lift the US of out of the Great Depression.
Next I nominate Carmen M. Reinhart, Professor of Economics at the Department of Economics at the University of Maryland. And finally, Professor Sakiko Fukuda-Parr, Professor of International Affairs at the New School, New York.
By broadening the spectrum of economic advice -- President Obama would both strengthen his own position; but also offer the most effective rebuttal to the taunts of President Lula.

Related articles:

Brazil's President Lula: 'White, Blue-Eyed Bankers Have Brought World Economy To Its Knees'

US Condemns Eritrea On Somalia Matters

Medeshi, March 30, 2009

US Condemns Eritrea On Somalia Matters

Office of Press and Public Diplomacy

United States Mission to the United Nations

140 East 45th Street

New York, N.Y. 10017
Statement by Ambassador Rosemary DiCarlo, U.S. Alternate Representative to the U.N. for Special Political Affairs, on Somalia, at the Security Council, March 20, 2009 :

Thank you, Mr. President. I too, would like to welcome Foreign Minister Omaar to the Council and thank him for his comments. My government congratulates you, Mr. Minister and other members of the unity government and assures you of our cooperation and support.
I would also like to welcome Special Representative Ould-Abdallah and thank him for his briefing today.
Mr. President, recent events present an opportunity to make real progress in Somalia. We welcome the election of President Sharif and the unity government’s move to Mogadishu. We must support the Somali people so that they can take advantage of this opening.
We remain encouraged by the political progress made under the Djibouti Agreement. My government strongly supports President Sharif’s efforts to encourage parties that are still outside the Djibouti Process to join him to rebuild their troubled country.
In this spirit, we urge all groups that have yet to lay down their arms and join the peace and reconciliation process to do so. Unfortunately, the terrorist organization al-Shabaab has failed to join this process, vowing instead not only to target the new government but also to continue its campaign against AMISOM and humanitarian NGOs. At the same time, Eritrea continues to provide financial, logistical, and political backing to al-Shabaab and other extremists and has issued a formal statement rejecting the new Somali government. We condemn these actions by al-Shabaab and Eritrea: they serve only to prolong the conflict in Somalia, and cannot be tolerated.
We highly commend the brave troops from Burundi and Uganda serving in AMISOM, who continue to operate under difficult conditions. They are doing crucial work in securing key infrastructure and allowing for the delivery of humanitarian aid, and they deserve our support.
The United States for its part has provided logistical assistance to AMISOM totaling over $100 million since 2007. We urge African Union member states that have pledged to provide troops to AMISOM to arrange to deploy them soon. And we strongly urge member states to support AMISOM.
Of course, Somalia must begin to provide for its own security, and we should consider ways to assist in the development of a Somali security sector.
Mr. President, this Council has made significant efforts to address the problem of piracy off the Somali coast. The United States is encouraged by the international community’s response. On any given day, ships from 15 to 20 different countries are now patrolling these waters.
My government also believes that the Contact Group for Piracy off the Coast of Somalia is proving to be an effective coordinating mechanism and we look forward to the third meeting of this group.
We also commend the Government of Kenya for offering to prosecute suspected pirates captured by the international community. We urge all states, especially those directly harmed by piracy, to help the Kenyan government manage the logistical and financial challenges of prosecuting suspected pirates. This is a burden that should not fall upon the shoulders of Kenya and its neighbors alone.
Finally, let me thank the staff of the UN agencies and the aid groups that are providing needed assistance to the Somali people under very difficult and dangerous circumstances. We strongly condemn those who impede the delivery of needed assistance through attacks against aid workers and AMISOM troops.
Mr. President, progress in Somalia will not come easily. The Secretary-General’s upcoming donors’ conference presents us with an opportunity to support the Somalis during this critical period. Let’s take advantage of it.
Thank you, Mr. President.

Food Aid Imports Enter Via Berbera Port

Medeshi March 30, 2009
Food Aid Imports Enter Via Berbera Port
The World Food Program (WFP) imported 375 metric tons of Sorghum to Ethiopia through the Port of Berbera last Thursday, March 26, 2009.
The WFP made a cross-border delivery of food commodities to Ethiopia from Berbera Port in Somaliland.
WFP, the world's largest humanitarian agency, used the port as an alternative entry port into Ethiopia to bring in its relief and emergency food stock.
The food aid is destined for the needy Somali region in the eastern part of Ethiopia for those obviously affected by famine.
"We are happy that the WFP sorghum has reached the region," Mitiku Kasa, state minister of Agriculture and Rural Development, told Fortune.
WFP confirmed that a convoy of 16 trucks and lorries had arrived in the eastern town of Jijiga from Berbera Port. The trucks were loaded with some 375 metric tons of sorghum for WFP beneficiaries in the Somali region. Men, women and children who are still enduring the impact of last year's severe drought and of high global food and fuel prices will benefit from this aid.
Out of the general 4.9 million people in need of food aid throughout the country, 1.5 million are found in this region.
"We will be able to help food insecure communities in the Somali region in an even more timely and efficient manner now that food supplies can arrive from across the border in Somaliland." Mohamed Diab WFP (PhD) country director in Ethiopia said in a press release sent to Fortune on Thursday, March 26, 2009.
The initial delivery of food commodities is part of a total consignment of 2,000 metric tons of sorghum that is expected to arrive in the country through the Berbera Port in the next few weeks.
WFP had sought for an alternative port to bring food stocks into Ethiopia since the recent heavy congestion at Djibouti Port. The new access from Berbera Port will complement the 'hubs and spokes' logistical system that WFP and the government implemented last October, and which operates in seven of the nine zones in the Somali region.
WFP confirmed that the 'hubs and spokes' delivery mode created three new storage points in the Somali region from which food is transported down multiple spokes to almost two hundred final distribution points. The restructuring has also involved the establishment of a secondary transport system using local transport companies.
By MERGA YONAS
FORTUNE STAFF WRITER

Ethiopia's dam project could kill Kenya's Lake Turkana

Medeshi

Ethiopia's dam project could kill Kenya's Lake Turkana
March 30, 2009

Lake Turkana’s clear waters emerge like a glassy screen, breaking through the rugged rocks and dry earth that precede its approach.
This most northerly of Kenya’s lakes, on the border with Ethiopia, formerly known as Lake Rudolf and referred to as the ‘Jade Sea’, brings life to its dry surroundings like an oasis in the desert.
But Lake Turkana, slightly salty and alkaline and abounding in 40 fish species, faces a severe threat from across the border in Ethiopia.
The row with Uganda over the tiny Migingo Island in Lake Victoria is nothing compared to the environmental catastrophe staring at Lake Turkana.
Ethiopia is midway through construction of a dam upstream on River Omo, which is Lake Turkana’s main tributary, giving it 80 per cent of its water. The other rivers, Turkwel and Kerio are seasonal and can barely sustain the lake’s water level.
Local and international impact reports have indicated the Turkana could start drying up once the huge dam, owned by Ethiopian Electric Power Corporation (EEPCO), cuts off the river to fill up a capacity of 11 billion cubic meters of water.
Big danger
The giant project poses a greater danger to 300,000 people around the lake in Turkana Central and Turkana North.
Its aquatic life, including the Nile perch, which they largely depend on for food and cash, could die out as salinity increases with the lowering of water level.
Similarly, a lake-dependent forest, one of the last pristine dry land forests in Africa, would also be in grave danger.
The tragedy looks real as the Gilgel Gibe III hydroelectric dam project is being built with the knowledge of the Kenya Government, which hopes to benefit from surplus power projected to be generated.
Irked by government indifference to the looming danger, residents, led by an NGO, Friends of Lake Turkana (FLT), recently demonstrated at Kalokol in Turkana North to drive their point home.
Ms Ikal Angelei, FLT chairperson, explained the realities of the endangered lake, saying it would never be the same again once the dam closes off its main water source.
"Nobody can touch the Nile from Alexandria (Egypt) down to its source at Jinja (Uganda). Egypt can even go to war if the river is interrupted. Why is our Government allowing this violation to our right," Angelei said.
Turkana politicians led by Mr Christopher Nakuleu, an East African Legislative Assembly MP, said in a joint statement that the Turkana, Rendile, Dassanch, Elmolo and Gabbra, who depend on the lake for food and water, would be affected.
"It is recognised that any interference with the Lake Turkana ecosystem could be catastrophic, but no effort has been made to avert disaster," says Pius Ewoton, the Executive Director of Arid Lands Integrated Programme.
He says since the start of the dam project on River Omo in 2006, the water levels have dropped by eight metres.
Mr Ewoton says Kenyan and Ethiopia’s governments approved the programme in total disregard of Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) reports.
Since August 2006, Kenya has been negotiating with Ethiopia for a power supply deal.
Ethiopia has a total power demand of about 400 MW against a production capacity of more than 1,875 MW.
Already, a memorandum of understanding, which also involves KenGen, has been signed with the Ethiopian Electric Power Corporation.
Feasibility studies
While the African Development Bank has provided Sh68 million for the project’s feasibility study, EEPCO needs Sh51 billion to export power to Kenya. Djibouti and Sudan will also benefit. Project designing is under way. It will take another three years to complete interconnection.
The Turkana leaders said while a power purchase agreement outlining the terms of electricity sale was reportedly signed between Ethiopia and Kenya in 2006, there are no bilateral agreements on the use of the Omo-Turkana waterway and the dam’s downstream effects to Kenya.
The leaders claim that an EIA submitted to donors for funding of the damming project was ‘incredibly sloppy’.
"Shockingly, it does not even mention that RiverOmo supplies 80 per cent of Lake Turkana waters. It suggests that the dam will regulate the natural flooding cycle of the Omo, eliminating the seasonal floods critical to downstream farmers," said Nakuleu.
The leaders are now urging President Kibaki to intervene and save the Turkana ecosystem and way of life.
During a visit to the area two weeks ago, Fisheries Minister Paul Otuoma said the Government was holding talks with Ethiopia on the matter. He said a Kenyan delegation had visited the neighbouring country and held negotiations.
The Ethiopian authorities, quoted by the BBC, maintain they are building the Gilgel Gibe III hydroelectricity dam — the second largest in sub-Saharan Africa — to solve a regional energy crisis.
(By Osinde Obare, Isaiah Lucheli and Vincent Bartoo The Standard)

Somaliland youth risk death in search of better life

Medeshi
Somaliland youth risk death in search of better life
HARGEISA, 30 March 2009

Harir Omar Yusuf, about to finish high school, should be choosing a degree course and deciding on a career direction; instead, he spends most of his time planning a perilous escape from his hometown of Hargeisa, capital of the self-declared republic of Somaliland in the northwest of Somalia, to Europe. (A street in Hargeisa. Young people are leaving Somaliland in droves because of insufficient opportunities (file photo)
"As soon as I finish high school I will go there, because I have nothing to stay for in Somaliland," he told IRIN, adding that his parents could not afford university fees and he was not assured of a place even if they could.
Yusuf has many friends who have made the journey - first through Ethiopia, then Sudan and Libya and finally to Italy via the Mediterranean Sea - and are now living as illegal immigrants in Italy and other European nations. He also has many friends languishing in Sudanese or Libyan jails, arrested for entering the country illegally, and knows of many who died making the trip, but he remains determined.
Tens of thousands of Somalis also try to cross the Gulf of Aden into Yemen every year aboard small vessels run by people-traffickers operating from Somali ports; according to the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR), one out of every 20 people attempting the journey in 2007 died.
Yusuf says he would rather risk death than live a life of certain poverty in Somaliland.
Unemployment "The issue of young people running away is very problematic in Somaliland," said Omer Ali Abdi, the director of the youth department in the Ministry of Youth and Sports. "Year after year, graduates from secondary schools are increasing and our universities just don't have the capacity to take in all of them - and even when they graduate from university, there is no guarantee they will get a job."
According to Ahmed Hashi Abdi, vice-minister in the Ministry of Planning and Coordination, only 10-20 percent of people under 35 are employed.

"Because it is unrecognised internationally, Somaliland has no access to bi-lateral funding, which has caused our economy to suffer, especially after the livestock ban of 1999, which destroyed the main source of income of most of our people," Abdi said. "For the same reason, international scholarships and higher education exchange programmes are not open to our students."
An outbreak of Rift Valley Fever in Saudi Arabia in 1999 resulted in a regional ban on imported livestock from Somalia, Ethiopia, Eritrea, Sudan, Kenya, and Djibouti; the ban on Somalia remains in place and now includes several other Middle Eastern nations. After the ban, remittances became the main foreign exchange earner; thousands fled the country during an outbreak of war in 1988, and regularly send money to their families. The Ministry of Planning estimates remittances account for US$500 million - or about 80 percent of Somaliland's economy. "When people leave the country legally, we are happy that they are able to send back money, but as much as possible we try to discourage young people from leaving illegally - then it becomes a matter of life and death and we cannot encourage that," Abdi said. Despite the risks, many families scrimp and save to send their children on these journeys. Over the past year, Amina Rooble (not her real name) has spent more than $6,500 on transport, communication, paying traffickers and bribing prison officers, all in an effort to get her son Hashim to Italy. Although his boat sank, Hashim survived and is now seeking asylum in Italy. "Even though my son was rescued, two other members of my family died on that boat," Rooble said. Incentive to stay

The government and local NGOs have run campaigns to discourage young people from leaving, but according to Yahye Mohamoud Ahmed, head of the Somaliland National Youth Organisation NGO, unless the government can provide some motivation, young people will continue to escape in droves.
"They have no incentive to stay - no jobs and no businesses, so it is fairly futile to tell them to stay," he said. "They need to be given the capacity to feed themselves here."
Ahmed added that many young men were now taking swimming lessons and using hi-tech communication equipment - such as satellite telephones to make SOS calls - to make their trips safer.
"When they hear about their friends and relatives in London or Italy, they get encouraged to go; even when their relatives have no jobs there, they still think they have a better life than here," he added.
According to Ahmed Abdi, the national development plan includes the creation of two vocational training institutes in every region of Somaliland to boost the number of tertiary institutions and the variety of courses available.
"We also intend to set up micro-finance schemes to enable them to be self-supporting," he added.
He noted that despite the continued livestock ban, a few countries in the Arab world were starting to buy Somaliland's meat, and the government hoped the Saudi ban would be lifted, restoring the industry.
Youth policy
The Ministry of Youth and Sports, in partnership with the UN Children's Fund (UNICEF), is drafting a national youth policy - due to be passed by parliament in 2011 - that hopes to address issues of youth emigration, unemployment, education and political participation.
"What we need more than anything is resources from our international partners focused on development rather than strictly emergencies - resources focusing on education and building the economy would encourage young people to stay and build their own nation," the Ministry of Youth's Abdi said.
maj/kr/mw
Theme(s): (IRIN) Education, (IRIN) Food Security, (IRIN) Governance, (IRIN) Migration, (IRIN) Refugees/IDPs

Binladen and Somalia

Medeshi March 29, 2007
Bin Laden and Somalia
By: Brydon Eady
Bin Laden has been very active with his communication lately. Releasing three recordings since January was three times more communicative than he was from 2001 to 2007.
His latest communication calls for the purge of the UN backed Somali government and its President (Mr. Sharif Sheikh). Last week, a cabinet minister of his (who himself led an Islamist group) was attacked. Although the cabinet minister wasn't killed, members of his security team were.
The north-east of Somalia contains an autonomous region called Puntland (also recently with a newly elected government). Puntland is unable to maintain legitimate control over vast parts of its borders (meaning the people of Puntland have a failed federal government as well as a failed provisional government). It also has a lot of beach ports that allow easy passage from the Horn of Africa into Yemen and even Saudi Arabia. Many people take this route on their pilgrimage to Mecca.
Bin Laden used to live and work in the horn - in Sudan where he was the engineer for the road networks. He ended up there after he was kicked out of Saudi Arabia for angering the royal family. He only left the Horn to go to Afghanistan because pressure from the United States (during the Clinton administration) was so great. He only went to Afghanistan because he knew the area (from his time fighting, leading and recruiting with the mujahideen).
The world has its eye on Tora Bora, the mountainous border region between Pakistan and Afghanistan where most of the world is convinced that he and other elite from al Qaeda and the Taliban are located. Obama is sending in 17 thousand troops, with another 4 thousand promised.
Nawaz Sharif is returning to power in the Punjab province, a massive "U-Turn" (the al-Jazeera term) in policy from the Pakistani province. Relating back to my first post with Shaharyar Khan, the former Secretary of Pakistan and his belief that the people of Pakistan want to return to a normal state of affairs and to have positive relations with countries like India. Read: On paper, and if things stay on course, Pakistan will be stable and have de facto control over its land. This is a bad thing if you're bin Laden.
I'm suggesting that there are multiple incentives for bin Laden to relocate to Somalia (if he hasn't done so already). This relocation would fit a trend he has shown in the past. The first and most obvious reason to leave Tora Bora/Jalalabad is because if Pakistan becomes politically stable, it will be harder to hide. With the American troop increase it will become increasingly difficult. He needs to go somewhere.
Out of all the places in the world, I see a parallel between Somalia/Puntland today and Afghanistan when he left Sudan. He left one place to go to another he is familiar with (Sudan-Afghanistan ~ Afghanistan-Somalia). There is no governing authority in Somalia (making it easy to hide) international presence is almost void (making it a much better place to be than Afghanistan). Salafism, and extreme conservative versions of it are also found in Somalia.
Which brings me to this next point- he keeps talking to Somalians. January 15th, on a communication that focuses on Jihad in Gaza he mentions Somalia twice. On March 14th he mentions the country twice again. On March 19th he states "fight on, Champions of Somalia" and dedicates a whole audio tape towards turning over the UN backed President of Somalia. Zawahiri also dedicates a recording "From Kabul to Mogadishu" on February 22nd. Keeping Somalia as a failed state is in his best interests.
Lastly, referring back to the Somali beach ports, Puntland/Somalia offer easy access to both Yemen and Saudi Arabia, which is where many prominent scholars (versed better than I) believe his real passion lies. Moving to Somalia would allow greater access to the states he wants to disrupt the most.