Lawless Kenyan Lawyer Kipkorir´s Militaristic Proposals

Medeshi Oct 7, 2008
Somali Commentator Adam Zayla Ridicules Lawless Kenyan Lawyer Kipkorir´s Militaristic Proposals

By Dr. Muhammad Shamsaddin Megalommatis

In an article entitled ´Panicked Consultants Fuel Islamic Terror Expansion Throughout Africa – the Kipkorir Ricochet´ (http://www.americanchronicle.com/articles/76530), I explored the reasons for which Donald Kipkorir, an otherwise shadowy Kenyan lawyer and parasitic gambler, published a shameful text that opposes all concepts and rules of International Law that the lawyer in question should have first studied and second adopted.
The dependence on the Kikuyu militaristic gangs that control the Kenyan army and the paramilitary (the backbone of the dictatorial regime of the ill-fated East African country) prove indeed to be the reason for such a text (republished with my analysis).
Pending my refutation of the paranoid text that reveals only panic and ignorance, I will republish a pertinent rebuttal that an astute Somali commentator, Mr. Adam Zeyla, felt obliged to immediately elaborate and widely publish.
There is more to it, as the lawless lawyer´s friends reacted with threats and insults that help better reveal their ominous face; but this will be the topic of a separate article. For the time being, I was to express my congratulations to Mr. Adam Zayla, and hope that the panicked Kenyan ´authorities´ read twice his down-to-earth analysis.
Kenya's and Ethiopia's Fragile Glass Houses
By Adam Zayla
Amongst others:
http://www.ayyaantuu.com/Oromiyaa/NewsBlog/tabid/36/EntryID/3395/Default.aspx
As I was doing my usual google session in search of news on Somalia, I came across a very amusing article entitled " Why Kenya and Ethiopia ought to annex and divide Somalia" written by Donald B. Kipkorir who advocates as the title suggest the annexation of Somalia by Kenya and Ethiopia. The article is a poor patch work of misinformation and delusional grandeur. I personally feel it's important to bring Mr Kipkorir safely back to earth with a healthy dose of reality. The objective of this reply is to demonstrate how on multiple levels this deluded so-called solution to the Somali problem proposed by Mr Kipkorir has no chance of ever materializing and why Kenya and Ethiopia despite having had the chance to do so never attempted to annex Somalia since the collapse of the Somali government and the disintegration of the Somali army. Prior to the collapse of the former and the disintegration of the latter, both Somali institutions for decades were Ethiopia's and Kenya's worst nightmares. Fearing Somali military power both countries even the decided to sign a joint defense-pact in the 1970s. One therefore wonders why Kenya and Ethiopia after the death of both of these Somali institutions didn't simply walk into Somalia and implemented Mr Kipkorir's brilliant plan. The reason is very simple; they didn't because of the shaky foundations both countries themselves are build on. Kenya and Ethiopia despite having governments and a unlimited flow of western aid continue to walk on thin ice when it comes to their disgruntled ethnic groups and any policy that's not decided or supported by Washington has a zero percent chance of succeeding.
Ethiopia-Kenya's nightmare scenario; disintegration along ethnic lines
A civil war similar to what happened in Somalia in the early 90's in either Kenya or Ethiopia will be the end of both countries. Somalia had it's civil war - and is currently experiencing turmoil courtesy of the United States - but it's still not the end of Somalia. Even if all the many peaceful Somali regions in Somalia today became their own independent states, somewhere down the line when stability arrives to other sections of the country (which happened during the ICU period) it wouldn't take long before the union of the now independent and internationally recognized break away countries of old Somalia were re-integrated in a New Somalia especially when all the previous minor indifferences and mistakes of the past were settled. But for Kenya and Ethiopia a civil war resulting in all these different countries (currently held prison due to colonial interference) breaking free will mean they will never EVER return to their previous status i.e. part of either Kenya or Ethiopia. Eritrea is a good example of this; Ethiopia brutally annexed Eritrea in the 1960s and had decades to provide the Eritrean people with positive signs of development but because of the arrogance and superiority complex of the Ethiopian regime the Eritreans saw their situation and standard of living going backwards and so they decided to fight for their well deserved right for self determination. Today's Eritrea regardless what one might say of it's government is a progressing country with a young and optimistic population that is doing much better without Ethiopia and because of this will never EVER even entertain the thought of uniting with Ethiopia. Somalia on the other hand; if it's peaceful regions such as Puntland, Somaliland and other states were to become their own countries (as I noted before) the prospect of a new Union is far higher here than a new union for a disintegrated and collapsed Kenya or Ethiopia. Many of the ministers of these Somali States were part of the Pan-Somalist regimes of Somalia and therefore still have a soft spot for the Greater Somalia concept and same goes for their populations.
Let's start with Ethiopia a country full of ethnic armies with secessionist aspirations and large parts of the country have basically become war zones. In their quest to defeat the military state of Ethiopia these liberation armies represent legitimate oppressed countries such as Oromia, Sidama, the Afar and Ogaden regions that are currently locked up in the backwards prison called Ethiopia. These countries in a new Ethiopian civil war would follow the same path as Eritrea and would be gone forever once the prison doors are opened - either voluntarily or through force. Kenya has it's own inter-ethnic problems which made headlines world wide. Innocent people burned in churches, thousands of people killed and hacked to death, 200 thousand people displaced. One wonders how such unstable countries could ever solve Somalia's problems when there own problems are just as severe if not worse. Somalia has nothing to lose, all that could go wrong, went wrong and still Somalia has not and will not after a decade of Anarchy suffer the same destiny as a future Anarchy Kenya or an Anarchy Ethiopia would suffer - which could happen anytime of the year. Their many disgruntled and marginalized ethnic groups currently waging war is evidence of how fast the scenario of widespread Anarchy in both Kenya and Ethiopia could materialize into reality once the wealthy wells of the West have dried up.
Potential reality or simply a Pipedream?
This ridiculous article that was written by Mr Donald Kipkorir - who is trying very hard to emulate his western masters by attempting to walk in shoes to big for him - gives the impression that both Ethiopia and Kenya have the necessary resources to occupy Somalia. Nothing could be further from the truth. Both are extremely poor countries. Even with western support occupying Somalia is a pipe dream. Half of Ethiopia's current invading army that was nurtured and funded by the United States is buried in Somali soil and with all it's US military hardware it still cannot control a few neighborhoods in Mogadishu let alone Somalia. The Islamist army on the other hand is currently reigning supreme in Southern Somalia and is becoming stronger as each day passes by. How could the small and poorly equipped Kenyan army ever succeed where the heavily western backed Ethiopian army failed? Then you have Puntland and Somaliland who have their own military forces equipped with excellent Soviet military hardware such as Tanks and anti-aircraft from the now disintegrated military of Somalia, with a combined army size of 40-50 thousand men. How could Kenya that can't even cope with the Ethiopian military raids in Moyale, the Shiftas in the Northeastern region ever secure Somalia? How could Kenya that could not protect it's citizens from brutal hacking sprees during the election crisis and today still cannot protect hard working Kenyan merchants from the Munguki Mafia that is roaming free - ever secure a country like Somalia? This proposed annexation of Somalia could backfire terribly and see both Kenya and Ethiopia completely disintegrate and parts of it's territory swallowed up by Somalia. Another interesting question regarding Kenya is; what would the reaction be of high ranking Somali officers in the Kenyan army? Would Kenya's minister of defense who himself is a Somali tolerate such a suicide mission? Kenya was saved many times over the last decades from a horrible civil war due to the actions of a 'loyal' Somali officer case in point being; Major General Mahmoud saving Kenyan President Moi from a coup d' etat in the 1980s. This loyalty would disappear instantly if Mr Kipkorir's plan was actually realized and this loss of Somali loyalty could have severe consequences to Kenya's future as a country.

What do Kenya or Ethiopia have to offer to Somalia economically?
Now that the military aspect of the proposed annexation has been refuted and utterly destroyed, let's just put that aside and just play along with Mr Kipkorir's pipe dream and imagine that both Kenya and Ethiopia have successfully annexed Somalia. Are Ethiopia and Kenya capable of feeding the population of Somalia and have they found a solution for their own immense food shortages? Facts on the ground look grim and both Ethiopia and Kenya are not self sufficient countries but rely heavily on foreign aid and subsidies from wealthy western countries to feed their populations and in Kenya's case most of the meat and agricultural products consumed there comes from Somalia. Somali livestock projection to Kenya saw an increase of 600 percent after the collapse of Kenya's domestic livestock market( so who's feeding who?). In the critically acclaimed economic paper entitled Somalia After State Collapse it is highlighted how Somalia's nomadic population fared much better than Kenya's nomadic population during periods of drought. Kenya's herders saw more then half of their livestock perish in drought. Again how could any sane person even dare to suggest Kenya which cannot support it's own nomadic and urban citizens - to annex it's neighbor Somalia that actually manages to take care of it's own population? Shouldn't Mr Kipkorir be more concerned with the fact that Kenya with all it's patron Western donors and with no serious war raging is still failing to provide for the nomadic Masai population, the Turkana population, the Somali population, the Borana population and the Kalenjin population within its borders?
Do both countries have anything to offer to the citizens of Somalia and is the standard of living in Kenya and Ethiopia higher than that of Somalia? facts on the ground again say a firm NO!; Somalia has a higher GDP per capita than Ethiopia. In the aforementioned paper, Somalia After State Collapse, Somalia is compared to 42 African countries where the economists eventually come to the conclusion that Somalia has made greater progress than most African countries with governments in the last decade and it's standard of living generally improved Somalia is the only country in East Africa to have increased it's life expectancy (only 3 countries in Africa managed to do this). Off all the countries in the Horn of Africa Somalia has the most universities in the top 100 of Africa. Somalia has the lowest HIV rate in Sub Saharan Africa which stands in stark contrast to Kenya and Ethiopia who are both suffering from AIDS epidemics. Somalia is far ahead of Kenya and Ethiopia when it comes to Telecommunications. Ethiopia a nation of 80 million people only has 100 thousand internet subscribers compared to the 10 million strong Somalia that has 500 thousand internet subscribers.[18] In Somalia it only takes three days to get a landline installed compared to Kenya where this process can take years.
But what about the refugees fleeing Somalia and it's impact on Kenya? well they have no other choice due to the wars instigated by western powers securing their own personal interests by arming warlords. These refugees return as soon as stability arrives in the regions they hail from as we have seen with the return of Somalis to stable regions such as Somaliland and Puntland and the Islamist take over in 2006 which saw a large influx of both expats and Somalis internally displaced during the 1990s returning to the capital. The current Islamist advance that's crippling the Ethiopian army and as a result directly frustrating the United States Africa Command plans on Somalia means it will take some time before stability resembling the brief period of ICU rule in 2006 returns and therefore people will continue to flee and southern Somalia will remain a hotspot. But Kenya has nothing to complain about; these same refugees are fueling the Kenyan economy. Somalis from Somalia have turned the previous slum called Eastleigh into a wealthy commercial center in Nairobi that according to experts is becoming Kenya's biggest entrepot for commerce and trade.
Conclusion
Kenya and Ethiopia have neither the military capability nor the economic self sufficiency to occupy or annex Somalia hence the whole concept being a pipedream. Kenya and Ethiopia face inter-ethnic strife that when fueled by a third party could turn into a ugly full blown civil war that could see both countries go the way of Yugoslavia or the more recent example being; the Soviet Union. With most of East Africa today being dependent on Somali merchants it's not hard to put two and two together and process who this third party might be. Kenya and Ethiopia in many sectors perform poorly compared to Somalia and policies that could see progress in these sectors and uplift the living standards of the average citizens of Kenya and Ethiopia are legitimate subjects Mr Kipkorir should write about.
The following popular saying is a very fitting end to this article: "Don't throw stones if you live in a glass house".

Note Picture: No one will prevent the rise of a Greater Somalia that will terminate the parasitic and tyrannical existence of the colonial relics, Abyssinia and Kenya.

Quitting Time in Somalia

Medeshi Oct 7, 2008

The End of Pax Zenawi in Somalia
(By Pro. Alemayehu G. Mariam) Quitting Time in Somalia:-

The situation in Somalia has turned Code Red. Things are deteriorating very fast for Zenawi’s troops. The Al-Shabaab “jihadists” have taken over southern Somalia, and are ravenously eyeing Mogadishu. It is no longer “hit-and-run” guerrilla warfare. It is capture-and-stay. They have captured Kisimayo, a southern port town. They are staying. They are being “flooded with money” from supporters and backers throughout the Middle East. They have shut down the Mogadishu airport. Now they are vowing to do the same with the sea ports. The 2500 or so African Union peacekeepers from Uganda and Burundi are holed up in their garrisons in Mogadishu as the insurgents rain rocket-propelled grenades on them at will. Bombings, assassinations, piracy, kidnappings and hostage-taking are a daily fact of life in Somalia.
There are no viable political solutions. The cost of the war both in terms of human lives and resources has become unbearable for Ethiopia, and Somalia. Zenawi’s forces are in full “strategic retreat” to Mogadishu. After nearly two years of intervention and occupation of Somalia, there are no signs of success; and an anniversary of total failure in the quicksand of Somalia awaits Zenawi this coming December. Could this be the end of Pax Zenawi in Somalia?

Zenawi realizes the jig is up in Somalia. For the past several weeks, he and his officials have been consistently dropping hints and insinuations of withdrawal. In his Ethiopian “new year” video interview last month, Zenawi declared triumphantly that he had fully achieved his primary objective of destroying and neutralizing the “jihadist” threat to Ethiopia. Success in stabilizing the Somali transitional government and bringing some measure of peace and reconciliation was “not 100 percent”. But Somalia is ready to host international peacekeepers, and he is ready to take out his troops. For Zenawi, the question is not whether to withdraw from Somalia, but “whether keeping Ethiopian forces in Somalia in the longer term would make a difference”? In other words, Zenawi wants out ASAP, but he needs to save face. He wants the U.N., the African Union or some other peacekeeping body to take over so that he can say he stabilized and brought peace to Somalia and is now withdrawing victoriously and honorably. That is unlikely to happen because there is no one out there willing to help him cover up the folly of his quixotic, imperial and hubristic misadventures in Somalia. Zenawi has no place to run but face the music.
The Way It Was…
Back in mid-December 2006, Zenawi denied any direct military involvement in Somalia. In an interview with the Washington Post, Zenawi explained that he had sent a few hundred soldiers into Somalia to provide training. “It is true we have troops in Baidoa, the capital, who are there to train forces of the transitional federal government, who are an internationally recognized government and who have officially asked for support from Ethiopia. . . . Now, if the transitional government does not want our trainers, we’d be happy to withdraw them. . .” He warned that “There is a group in the Islamic Movement in Mogadishu that is not interested in democratic secular government in Somalia, that is hell-bent on establishing a Taliban regime in Somalia. Now, you can facilitate the Talibanization of Somalia through dialogue. If that is the intention, it perhaps makes sense….” In early January, 2007, a triumphant Zenawi declared that his forces would remain in Somalia “for a few weeks” while the transitional government stabilizes the situation. “It is up to the international community to deploy a peacekeeping force in Somalia without delay to avoid a vacuum and a resurgence of extremists and terrorists.”

In May, 2007, Zenawi told Al Jazeera that he was not only providing training in Somalia, he had been invited by the transitional government to assist in fighting terrorists. “I think we should get the facts straight first. We did not invade Somalia. We were invited by the duly constituted government of Somalia, internationally recognized government of Somalia to assist them in averting the threat of terrorism. We did so.” Even though he had argued at the outset of the invasion that Somalia was the central front in the battle against Al Queida and international terrorism in the Horn of Africa, he denied any U.S. role in the invasion: “We did not fight a proxy war on behalf of the United States. Indeed, the United States was very ambivalent about our intervention, once we intervened of course the United States and much of the international community was supportive but in the initial phase before we intervened, everybody, including the United States was warning us that we might walk into a trap and a quagmire and that we should think twice before taking steps.” In October, 2007, he told his parliament: “So, rushing to pull out the army immediately would have entailed a situation for the already dismantled forces of terror in Somalia to regroup, and thereby to render void the sacrifices already made by the Ethiopian army.”
The Way it Is Now….
Today, things are going downhill in Somalia, and getting worse by the day. The Somali jihadist-talibanist-terrorists refuse to be vanquished. They have launched an Iraq-style insurgency. The civilian war casualty continues to increase by the day. An estimated 20,000 Somalis have died, mostly civilians, since the invasion. Over 1 million Somalis have been displaced. Upwards of 5 thousand of Zenawi’s troops are estimated to have been killed or severely injured in the Somali war. Amnesty International has documented massive human rights violations by Zenawi’s troops in Somalia including extrajudicial killings, torture, rape, beatings, arbitrary detentions, forced disappearances and collective punishments. Zenawi says it is all a “total fabrication”. There is no accountability for what Zenawi does in Somalia. As one opposition leader recently complained, “The government has irresponsibly refused to account on these two pertinent issues relating to the Ethiopian army’s deployment to Somalia. Every country’s parliament, even the public at large, has a right to know what its involvement is costing in terms of life and resources. We have been kept in the dark.” Under Zenawi’s watch, the “jhihadists” and “terrorists” in Somalia have not only grown stronger militarily, they have also expanded into new fields of terroristic operations. The Somali coast has become Piracy Central. Carrying cell phones, RPGs, speedboats and assorted small arms, the high tech Somali pirates are making it hazardous for commercial navigation on the Indian Ocean. Last week Zenawi complained: “We are very concerned about the level of piracy on the seas. It is related to the instability in Somalia. They could be used to destabilize the region and the whole situation on the high seas is a matter of great concern for all of us. We very much hope the international community will respond.” His foreign minister last week called upon the U.N. to deploy peacekeepers in Somalia “as soon as possible” or provide resources to strengthen the current African Union mission.

The Somali war has never been popular in Ethiopia. Unlike the war in Iraq, there was no one in Ethiopia who was for the Somali war before they were against it. Everybody was against it. Now there is even talk that “Ethiopia’s fractious political opposition is planning a unified parliamentary campaign to demand a complete withdrawal of Ethiopian troops from Somalia.” VOA reported recently that “opposition parties” have sent a letter to Zenawi “saying the sacrifice of lives and scarce financial resources had become unbearable.” Bulcha Mideksa stated matter-of-factly that the Somalis “resolved to fight against us, and they are fighting, and in my opinion they are winning.” But Zenawi’s official policy remains: “We can get out any time. We will not. We are not in a quagmire. But we cannot abandon the transitional government and Somali people. We have to see progress in reconciliation so we do not want to abandon them in middle of crisis in Somalia.”
Pax Zenawi (Zenawi’s Peace)
Zenawi’s invasion of Somalia was reckless and irresponsible. He glibly assured the world at the beginning of the invasion, “we will be out in a few weeks.” Now he realizes that the business of war is unpredictable, expensive and uncertain. After nearly two years, he has found that the Somali war has sapped the strength of his troops and depleted the limited resources of the country; and he has no diplomatic leverage over the various warring Somali elements to impose his quixotic vision of a Pax Zenawi on the Somali people which he can manipulate through a puppet client regime.

It is really hard to imagine what Zenawi had in mind where he decided to invade Somalia. From his public statements, one can infer that he must have had visions of a mini-empire in the Horn. He certainly had megalomaniacal visions of bringing peace, freedom and stability to Somalia (something he has been unable to bring to his own country over the past 17 years). He seems to have envisioned himself as a “Supercop” with the self-appointed responsibility of keeping law and order in the Horn. In December, 2006, he asserted a unilateral right to act as a Horn policeman and contain terrorism, and casually invited the world to join him after he kicked the rear ends of the “jihadists” in “a few weeks”. The potential implications of a Pax Zenawi in Somalia are as dangerous as they are laughable. Today Zenawi finds himself in Somalia like the frontier marshal portrayed by Gary Cooper in “High Noon” facing some nasty and wicked outlaws without help from the townsfolk. He stands alone against a vicious phantom “jihadist” enemy; and none of the Somali townsfolk, the Ethiopian people or the international community wants to help him fight them.

The fact of the matter is that Somalis are not interested in any peace imposed upon them by Zenawi. The gift of secular government Zenawi wants to offer the Somalis has few takers. For the last 17 years, the Somalis have been unable to come to terms with the basic facts of their national life. Maybe they prefer tribal and clan associations over an elected democratic national government. Maybe they’d rather have a theocratic state than a secular transitional government whose authority is more widely denied and held in contempt than recognized. They regard the members of the transitional government as collaborators. It’s up to them what they want. It is not up to Zenawi to impose upon them. Yet in his recent statements, Zenawi is implicitly threatening the international community that if they don’t send troops and/or provide resources, he may just quit and walk out. That would presumably embolden the Al-Shabaab and the local and foreign Islamist extremists; and Somalia would be swiftly consumed in a civil war and become an incubator for terrorists. That was the same plea he made back in December 2006. It is falling on deaf ears now. For nearly two years, he has been begging for more African Union for troops, and with the exception of Uganda and Burundi, none of the estimated 6,000 AU troops are likely to show up. The lame duck Bush Administration is bogged down with its own problems. Nobody seems to care much about the anticipated consequences Zenawi’s withdrawal from Somalia.

Zenawi’s dilemma in getting out of Somalia revolves around several issues: First, he believes that if he withdraws “precipitously” there will be civil war in Somalia. That is not convincing as Somalis have been in a state of clan wars, virtual civil wars, since the fall of the Barre regime in 1991. Second, an immediate or even a phased withdrawal will encourage and embolden the “jihadists” terrorist. The “jihadists” are already emboldened by the fact that they now virtually control most of southern Somalia. The only thing the continued occupation will do is increase their determination to get rid of the occupation forces. Third, the security and military capability of the transitional government must be strengthened or it will be overrun by Islamist forces. The problem with that argument is that it will take years to enhance the military capability and combat readiness of the transitional government forces. There are issues of clan loyalty, shifting clan alliances and resources that make such a thing nearly impossible. Fourth, an unscheduled withdrawal will undermine “Ethiopia’s credibility” and expose “our supporters in Somalia” to extreme danger, and damage the morale of Zenawi’s troops. Those supporters are in extreme danger now as attempts are being made almost daily to assassinate and attack them. The war has no popular support and morale has been down from the beginning. If Zenawi’s troops were given a choice between staying in Somalia and fighting a losing war or risking damage to their morale, they would take the latter, as would the Ethiopian people.

The painful fact is that invasion of Somalia was not in the national interest of Ethiopia. The invasion was illegal under international law and a colossal political mistake. It was morally wrong to invade a country and cause so much civilian death and displacement. At the time of the invasion, Somalia was in no position to militarily threaten Ethiopia. Today, the counterinsurgency is getting tougher by the day and is recruiting more fighters. It seems increasingly clear that it is well-funded and well-equipped to inflict maximum damage and sustain the insurgency for a very long time. The only real option is getting out of Somalia immediately and without preconditions.
No Exit Strategy
There are no good options left for Zenawi. His dream of creating a stable, pluralist, democratic, unitary state with strong constitutional protections in Somalia is as real as the mirages in the Somali desert. He has not been able to create a pluralist democratic society in Ethiopia in 17 years; it is unlikely he could do so in Somalia in 2 years. He also seems to have overplayed his hand in Somalia in trying to use the same old divide-and-rule strategy that has worked for him so well in Ethiopia. He found out that Somali history and the history of Ethiopian-Somali relationship can not be undone by a wave of the magic wand of divide-and-rule.

At this late stage in the game, Zenawi’s choices are limited. First, he can withdraw immediately, a strategy less affectionately known as “cut and run”. That would be the most rational thing to do. In other words, cut your losses in a lost war and run for the border. Zenawi says that would plunge Somalia into civil war and expose the transitional government to certain doom. But what he needs to realize is that much of the violence, insecurity and instability in Somalia today is a direct reaction to his occupation forces and his support for the transitional regime. Somalia has also been in a state of anarchy since 1991. Immediate withdrawal will more likely result in a decline in violence than a spike in it. The way things are shaping now, Zenawi will be forced to cut and run from Somalia. Analysis of his recent public statements seem to suggest that he is slowly building up courage to do just that. A phased withdrawal may also be an option. Perhaps a reassurance that occupying forces will leave Somalia might bring the warring factions together to hammer out a working arrangement.

His second option is to continue the occupation, that is an open-ended anti-jihadist counter-terrorism mission that will prove to be increasingly bloody, costly, and counterproductive. But even that is becoming more difficult as the “jhihadists” retake and control more territory and tighten the noose on Mogadishu. There are few occupied areas in Somalia where Zenawi’s forces or the transitional government can enforce their political rule, exercise civil authority and/or maintain law and order. If there exists any “government” in Somalia at all, it seems to exist in the form of non-political traditional social institutions such as clan elders, tribal militias, religious clerics, etc. Generally, the anecdotal data from composite news and published intelligence sources shows that Zenawi’s troops can no longer operate as an effective occupation force. They have been forced to abandon towns and strategic locations and go into virtual “force protection mode”. They remain in their fortified bases and are making little effort to go out and aggressively pursue the “jihadist terrorists”. They have been effectively neutralized by the “jihadists”.

Third, Zenawi can work to intensify regional/international diplomatic offensives. The problem is that no one seems to be interested. The AU has been unable to deliver on the promised peacekeepers and the U.N. has not been able to provide much more than moral support. So far he has only been able to engage in a diplomatic parlor game accusing opponents, “jihadists” and others of distorting his intentions and aims. He has not been able to get real commitment for a power sharing arrangement among the various factions. For whatever reasons, the Somalis do not appear interested in diplomatic solutions engineered by Zenawi.

Fourth, dump the transitional government and work with the “jihadists”. The fact of the matter is that the transitional government exists in name only. It can not provide the most basic functions and services. It has few units with any capability for sustained combat operations. It is unlikely that the government’s troops can be trained and equipped in such large numbers to become an effective fighting force in their own right in the foreseeable future. There is not much evidence to suggest that the forces of the transitional government are contributing significantly to the fight against the insurgents. It is also unlikely that Somali clan and militia leaders will make difficult compromises so long as there are foreign troops on their soil. Religious and nationalist opposition is on the rise and there is no support for the occupation forces and very little for the transitional government. After nearly two years of fighting in Somalia, it is clear that the insurgents are at least as strong now as they ever have been, and most likely much stronger as they now control large swaths of the country. Maybe it’s time to talk to them and cut a deal; perhaps cobble together a basis for a very loose “national” government and carve out territories for the various clan leaders to administer on their own. Then leave Somalia!

Fifth, Zenawi can maintain a prolonged strategic stalemate with the “jihadists”. Obviously, this is a very risky strategy. The presence of foreign troops in Somalia will always provoke resistance; and at best Zenawi can expect a bloody stalemate that will result in more civilian deaths, military casualties and incur huge costs. But it may be possible to continue to mount selective operations to keep pressure on the insurgents.
End Game: Time to Get the Hell Out of Dodge
The questions Zenawi needs to face are clear: Is Ethiopia or the international community safer from the threats of terrorism today than in December 2006? If he disengages, will Somalia be plunged into its former state of clan warfare (civil war) and politics? In as much as Zenawi has tried to fan the flames of terrorism in the Horn to get international support for his interventionary actions, support for his dictatorship in Ethiopia and avert sanctions for his massive human rights violations, his strategy for war and peace in Somalia has failed completely. As the old saying goes, “You can start a war whenever you want, but you can not stop it whenever you want.” That is Zenawi’s problem: How can he stop the war and get out of Somalia? The ultimate question is how to help Zenawi withdraw from Somalia without losing face, not how many Ethiopians or Somalis are dying or displaced. It is unlikely that he will admit defeat and error and pull the troops out. That is just not going to happen. The invasion of Somalia was a colossal misadventure. There will be no peace with honor to exit out of Somalia. Zenawi will leave Somalia in disgrace in six months, one year or however long it takes. That is the price of arrogance and hubris. As Scriptures teach: “When pride comes, then comes disgrace.” And “pride goes before destruction, and haughtiness before a fall.” (Proverbs 11:2, 16:18.)

What Nobody Wants To Know About Somalia And Why; And What That Means

Medeshi Oct 6, 2008
What Nobody Wants To Know About Somalia And Why; And What That Means
A huge war crime -- a massive crime against humanity -- is going on right now in Somalia, courtesy of (but only indirectly traceable to) the Bush administration and Washington's bipartisan power elite. But, aside from Chris Floyd and a few other internet madmen, nobody knows -- or even wants to know -- much about it.

What's happening? And why doesn't anybody want to know? These are troubling questions for anyone who cares about the soul of America, and even more troubling for anyone who's beginning to suspect that America has no soul at all.
Chris Floyd:
Somalia is the invisible third front of the Terror War, an American-backed "regime change" operation launched by the invading army of Ethiopia and local warlords in December 2006. In addition to helping arm, fund and train the army of the Ethiopian dictatorship, the United States has intervened directly into the conflict, carrying out bombing raids on fleeing refugees and nomads, firing missiles into villages, sending in death squads to clean up after covert operations, and [...] assisting in the "rendition" of refugees, including American citizens, into the hands of Ethiopia's notorious torturers.
Bombing raids on fleeing refugees? Oh, yes. And much more, too. These people look hungry. We'd better kill them!

Read more at: http://winterpatriot.blogspot.com/2008/10/what-nobody-wants-to-know-about-somalia.html

Somalia is 'most ignored tragedy'

Medeshi )ct 6, 2008

Somalia is 'most ignored tragedy'
By Mark Doyle BBC World Affairs Correspondent
The world should be shocked at the systematic destruction of Somalia's capital Mogadishu and its residents, says lobby group Human Rights Watch.

(Photo: Ghost city wracked by war : Video: In Somalia's danger zone)
The organisation told the BBC the city had become a zone of free-fire between government and insurgent forces.
It said if such a situation was happening anywhere else in the world, like Georgia or Lebanon for example, it would be considered a travesty.
Instead Somalia was the most ignored tragedy in the world today, HRW said.
Mogadishu is dying; it is a city on the Indian Ocean coast that used to be one of Africa's trading hubs with the Middle East.
Now whole swathes of it are rubble or skeletons of buildings without doors or windows or roofs.
The most shocking, eerie aspect of it is that in many parts of the capital all the people have fled.
Aid vacuum
The fighting is between the US-backed government and Islamist and nationalist insurgents, who Washington accuses of having links with al-Qaeda.
The Somali government has no capacity to count the number of people who have fled and there are no international aid workers left to do the job because they would be kidnapped for ransom or murdered.
But the fighting has been worse for the ordinary residents of Mogadishu than even the infamous period in the early 1990s that spawned the film Black Hawk Down, a portrayal of American troops killed in Somalia at that time.
Today is worse than Black Hawk Down for the people of Mogadishu, much worse.
I was in the city in the early 1990s. It was an extremely violent time.
Not a night passed without explosions lighting up the sky but even that did not empty the capital of Somalia like the daily fratricidal confrontations now taking place between the government and its armed opponents.
Story from BBC NEWS:

Ethiopia must release rendition victims: HRW

Medeshi Oct 6 ,2008

Ethiopia must release rendition victims: HRW
Ethiopia must release rendition victims: HRW
Submitted by WW4 Report on Mon, 10/06/2008 The Africa Front
Human Rights Watch Oct. 1 called on the Ethiopian government to release rendition victims in custody or prosecute them in an open court. The renditions were the result of a US-backed Ethiopian military intervention in neighboring Somalia in late 2006. The fighting caused thousands to flee across the border into Kenya, which detained at least 150 people from more than 18 countries. In early 2007, Kenyan authorities "renditioned" dozens of these individuals back to Somalia, where they were handed over to the Ethiopian military and questioned by US and Ethiopian agents.
The governments of Kenya, Somalia and Ethiopia have all denied illegally transporting and jailing people, claiming they have only taken action against legitimate suspects. According to HRW, the rendition victims were denied access to their embassies, their families and international relief organizations. Former prisoners have complained of solitary confinement and accused Ethiopian authorities of torture, including the pulling out toenails, holding loaded guns to their heads, the crushing of genitals, and being beaten to the point of unconsciousness.
Human Rights Watch initially raised the Horn of African renditions issue in March 2007 when it claimed that the US, Kenya, and Ethiopia were cooperating with the transitional government of Somalia to detain refugees. Canada, Sweden and Eritrea subsequently pressured Ethiopia to reveal details regarding foreign nationals it has allegedly detained in secret prisons run in collaboration with the FBI and CIA. In August last year Kenyan Muslims in Nairobi protested that suspects detained in Kenya had been flown on secret rendition flights to Ethiopia, where "aggressive interrogation" took place at the hands of US agents. (Jurist, Oct. 2)

Somali pirates stare down global superpowers

Medeshi Oct 6, 2008
NAIROBI, Kenya With a Russian frigate closing in and a half-dozen U.S. warships within shouting distance, the pirates holding a tanker off Somalia's coast might appear to have no other choice than to wave the white flag.
(In this picture released by U.S. Navy, Sunday, Sept. 28, 2008, Somali pirates in small boats are seen alongside the hijacked "Faina". Armed pirates aboard fast-moving skiffs have increasingly turned the shipping lanes off Somalia into a lucrative hunting grounds: commandeering vessels large and small and leaving the world's maritime powers frustrated about how to stop the seafaring bandits. )
But that's not how it works in Somalia, a failed state where a quarter of children die before they turn 5, where anybody with a gun controls the streets and where every public institution has crumbled.
The 11-day standoff aboard the Ukrainian MV Faina begs the question: How can a bunch of criminals from one of the poorest and most wretched countries on Earth face off with some of the world's richest and well-armed superpowers?
"They have enough guns to fight for another 20 years," Ted Dagne, a Somalia analyst in Washington, told The Associated Press. "And there is no way to win a battle when the other side is in a suicidal mind set."
In Somalia, pirates are better-funded, better-organized and better-armed than one might imagine in a country that has been in tatters for nearly two decades. They have the support of their communities and rogue members of the government - some pirates even promise to put ransom money toward building roads and schools.
With most attacks ending with million-dollar payouts, piracy is considered the biggest economy in Somalia. Pirates rarely hurt their hostages, instead holding out for a huge payday.
The strategy works well: A report Thursday by a London-based think tank said pirates have raked in up to $30 million in ransoms this year alone.
"If we are attacked we will defend ourselves until every last one of us dies," Sugule Ali, a spokesman for the pirates aboard the Faina, said in an interview over satellite telephone from the ship, which is carrying 33 battle tanks, military weapons and 21 Ukrainian and Latvian and Russian hostages. One Russian has reportedly died, apparently of illness.
The pirates are demanding $20 million ransom, and say they will not lower the price.
"We only need money and if we are paid, then everything will be OK," he said. "No one can tell us what to do."
Ali's bold words come even though his dozens of fighters are surrounded by U.S. warships and American helicopters buzz overhead. Moscow has sent a frigate, which should arrive within days.
Jennifer Cooke of the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington said hostage-taking is the key to the pirates' success against any military muscle looming from the U.S. and Russia.
"Once you have a crew at gunpoint, you can hold six U.S. naval warships at bay and they don't have a whole lot of options except to wait it out," Cooke said.
The pirates have specifically warned against the type of raids carried out twice this year by French commandos to recover hijacked vessels. The French used night vision goggles and helicopters in operations that killed or captured several pirates, who are now standing trial in Paris.
But the hostages are not the bandits' only card to play.
Often dressed in military fatigues, pirates travel in open skiffs with outboard engines, working with larger mother ships that tow them far out to sea. They use satellite navigational and communications equipment and an intimate knowledge of local waters, clambering aboard commercial vessels with ladders and grappling hooks.
They are typically armed with automatic weapons, anti-tank rocket launchers and grenades - weaponry that is readily available throughout Somalia, where a bustling arms market operates in the center of the capital.
They also have the support of their communities and some members of local administrations, particularly in Puntland, a semiautonomous region in northeast Somalia that is a hotbed for piracy, officials and pirates have told the AP.
Abdulqadir Muse Yusuf, a deputy minister of ports in Puntland, acknowledged there were widespread signs that Puntland officials, lawmakers and government officials are "involved or benefiting from piracy" and said investigations were ongoing. He would not elaborate.
Piracy has transformed the region around the town of Eyl, near where many hijacked ships are anchored brought while pirates negotiate ransoms.
"Pirates buy new luxury cars and marry two, three, or even four women," said Mohamed, an Eyl resident who refused to give his full name for fear of reprisals from the pirates.
"They build new homes - the demand for construction material is way up."
He said most of the well-known pirates promise to build roads and schools in addition to homes for themselves. But for now, Mohamed says he has only seen inflation skyrocket as the money pours in.
"One cup of tea is about $1," he said. Before the piracy skyrocketed, tea cost a few cents.
Piracy in Somalia is nothing new, as bandits have stalked the seas for years. But this year's surge in attacks - nearly 30 so far - has prompted an unprecedented international response. The Faina has been the highest-profile attack because of its dangerous cargo. The U.S. fears the arms could end up in the hands of al-Qaida-linked militants in a country seen as a key battleground on terror.
The United States has been leading international patrols to combat piracy along Somalia's unruly 1,880-mile coast, the longest in Africa and near key shipping routes. In June, the U.N. Security Council passed a resolution that would allow countries to chase and arrest pirates after attacks increased this year.
But still, the attacks continue. Dagne, an analyst in Washington, said that unless the roots of the problem are solved - poverty, disease, violence - piracy will only flourish.
"You have a population that is frustrated, alienated, angry and hopeless," Dagne said. "This generation of Somalis grew up surrounded by abject poverty and violence."
Associated Press writers Salad Duhul and Mohamed Olad Hassan in Mogadishu, Somalia, contributed to this report.

Somaliland Diaspora : Half-day conference on promoting partnership

Medeshi Oct 6 ,2008
Somali Week Festival 2008
Tuesday 14th October
14:00-18:00
Half-day conference on promoting partnership between Somaliland Diaspora
organisations, UK development organisations and their counterparts in
Somaliland
Oxford House in Bethnal Green, in partnership with Somaliland Diaspora
organisations, including Somaliland Societies in Europe (SSE), Somaliland Umbrella
Group (SUG), Somaliland International Recognition Action Group (SIRAG),
Somaliland Focus (UK) and Somaliland West London, is organising a half-day
conference on Tuesday 14th October 2008 from 2pm
We are inviting you to attend this important conference with the theme: promoting
partnership between Somaliland Diaspora organisations, their local
counterpart organisations and other international NGOs.
The primary objective of the conference is to discuss the roles and contributions that
can be played by both Somaliland and Diaspora organisations in the human and
economic development of Somaliland, and ways in which the necessary networks
can be improved to support those activities. The conference will also consider
specific experience in Somaliland with a view to informing discussion on future
initiatives.
We believe that the debates and discussions held during the meeting will help to
contribute to the improvement of communications networks amongst Somaliland
organisations in the UK and back home, as well as with international counterpart
organisations.
Conference Programme
14:00-15:00 Registration and Refreshments
15:00-15:05 Welcome from Chair of SSE
15:05-15:15 Introduction by Michael Walls, Chair of Somaliland Focus
15:15-15:30 Local NGOs and their contribution to Somaliland development; Omar
Sheikh, Director of Havoyoco (Horn of Africa Voluntary Youth
Committee)
15:30-15:45 The integration, effects, and situation of Somali refuges from
Mogadishu in Somaliland by Anna Lindley, University of Oxford
15:45-16:05 Local NGOs and their contribution to peace, democratisation
processes and latest update on Somaliland election and voter
2
registration by Boobe Yusuf Duale, Programme Coordinator, Academy
for Peace and Development, Somaliland

16:05-16:20 Somaliland Diaspora organisations and their contribution to
Somaliland development by Dr Saad Ali Shire, Burco University

16:20-16:40 Building partnerships between Diaspora and local NGOs and bilateral
donors by Jonathan Hargreaves/Cindy Berman, DFID

16:40-17:00 Discussion

17:00-17:20 Tea/Coffee Break/Networking

17:20-17:40 Dialogue, collaboration, learning and information exchange between
local and Diaspora NGOs and international organisations and
Diaspora organisations; improving our ability to work together by Dr
Michael Brophy, Director, Africa Educational Trust

17:40-18:00 Sum up and close of conference.

Insurgents in Somalia Issue a Warning to 2 Western Aid Groups

Medeshi 4 Oct, 2008

Insurgents in Somalia Issue a Warning to 2 Western Aid Groups
A spokesman for the insurgents accused CARE and the International Medical Corps of having committed “crimes against Islam and the jihad.”
Since this feed article is very short, here's an excerpt from its web site: MOGADISHU, Somalia (AP) — Hundreds of thousands of Somalis have been left without basic health care after Islamic militants forced one Western aid group to suspend some operations and threatened another on Friday. Meanwhile, Somalia’s civilian death toll continued to climb.
The last two weeks have been especially bloody, with the United Nations estimating that more than 80 civilians have been killed in Mogadishu, the capital, alone. Elisabeth Byrs, a spokeswoman for the United Nations humanitarian office in Geneva, said that more than 100 people had been wounded in the same period.
...
In recent months the insurgents have staged a series of hit-and-run attacks on several towns, and they hold Somalia’s third largest city, Kismayo. On Friday, a statement by a spokesman for the insurgents, Sheik Muqtar Robow, accused the Western aid agencies, CARE and the International Medical Corps, of having committed “crimes against Islam and the jihad.” The statement warned the agencies to leave areas controlled by the Islamists.
...
“I am warning other agencies in Somalia to not get involved in areas outside their job,” Sheik Robow said. “If they are found, they will face suspension of operations.”
A spokeswoman for the International Medical Corps, Margaret Aguirre, said that the agency had suspended work in southern Somalia last week after insurgents looted four of its offices in the regions of Bakool and Bay. No staff members were hurt in the attacks, she said.
“We’re deeply concerned about the impact of these incidents on people who are already suffering,” said Ms. Aguirre in a telephone interview from the agency’s headquarters in California.
The agency’s medical clinics in the region serve more than 370,000 people, 53,000 of whom are children under the age of 5. Ms. Aguirre, citing security concerns, declined to say how many staff members worked for the organization in Somalia.
CARE did not return phone messages seeking comment. Its Web site says that CARE provides clean water, sanitation and health programs, and that it seeks to improve agricultural practices.
Both the insurgents and the government have threatened Western aid agencies previously, although it is unusual for particular agencies to be singled out. Twelve aid workers have been killed this year in Somalia and nearly 20 have been kidnapped.
Even peacekeepers have found themselves to be targets. On Thursday night, insurgents attacked a contingent of African Union peacekeepers from Burundi, killing two civilians and injuring 19, said Ruqiyo Shafi’i, who lives near the African Union’s base in southern Mogadishu. A spokesman for the African Union, Barigye Bahoku, said no peacekeepers had been killed or wounded in the attack.
...

Fine for illegal fishing , arms smuggling and human catestrophe in Somalia

Medeshi
Pirates of the 21st century
Today's swashbucklers wield high-powered weapons and demand millions in ransom.
By John S. Burnett October 4, 2008
High seas piracy has emerged from the history books -- and things are much more terrifying than yo-ho-ho and a bottle of rum.
Ten days ago, Somali pirates hijacked the Ukrainian cargo ship Faina, with a crew of 20, which was transporting 33 battle tanks and assorted heavy weaponry. This dangerous cargo, booty far beyond the expectations of the pirates, has drawn rare international attention to the growing crisis of piracy at sea. U.S. Navy ships have surrounded the Faina for fear the weapons, if unloaded, will fall into the hands of Islamic insurgents. The Russian warship Neustrashimy, with marines and commandos aboard, is en route. The European Union has finally moved to set up an anti-piracy security operation in the region, and the United Nations may vote on an anti-pirate resolution next week.

The pirates reportedly demanded $35 million to free the ship, then $20 million -- and may have dropped their price to $5 million. But they don't call it ransom. Their leader told the New York Times that the money was a "fine" for transporting arms in Somalia's waters and for "unauthorized and unsanctioned fishing and for the humanitarian catastrophe in Somalia."
If the Faina hijacking serves any useful purpose, it may be that it has alerted the public to the scale of the problem. If terrorists hijacked a FedEx cargo plane with a crew of two, the news networks would be following events minute by minute. But few have expressed concern for those captured at sea, as if pirates really were romantic, swashbuckling rogues who swing through the rigging rescuing damsels in distress.
Right now, Somali pirates hold more than a dozen hijacked ships. Nearly 400 men and women from the vessels are being held at gunpoint in some Somali fishing village or aboard a ship that is running low on food and water while negotiations are underway with ship owners that will determine if they live or die. My own sailing vessel was attacked by pirates in the South China Sea, and I can attest there are few situations more terrifying than staring down the barrel of a loaded assault rifle held by a nervous pirate, knowing that no one is coming to your rescue.

Pirates attack merchant vessels, cruise ships, oceangoing tugboats, yachts and support vessels with impunity nearly on a daily basis -- often as warships from Combined Task Force 150, the multinational naval fleet that patrols the Horn of Africa for terrorist threats, watch the attack in real time on radar. Other than scaring off a few pirates, task force ships have not intervened.
The alarming increase in piracy off the coast of Somalia is not unexpected. Somalia has not had a functioning government since the ouster of dictator Mohamed Siad Barre in 1991. During the subsequent years of tribal conflict, foreign fleets took advantage of the vacuum and fished the tuna-rich Somali waters without check. In the southernmost port of Kismayo, where I served as a relief worker in the late 1990s, foreign fishing boats captured by angry local fisherman lie rusting against the pier, serving now as a place for young militiamen to relax in the sun during their stoned-out Qat break.
Today, however, those former fishermen have found that piracy is far more profitable than pulling up half-empty fishing nets. According to the International Maritime Bureau in London, which monitors piracy at sea, the average ransom paid for a ship and its crew is about $1 million. The bulk of the money is spread through the coastal communities where the hijacked ships are taken and funneled to transnational crime syndicates. But pirates are still better off than their countrymen, who wonder where their next meal is coming from. Two years ago, there were a reported 100 pirates working the coast; today, according to Andrew Mwangura, who heads the Seafarer's Assistance Program in Mombasa, Kenya, there are an estimated 1,200. And the list of volunteers to join them is long.
Hijacking a huge cargo vessel or cruise ship is not difficult. The pirate boats, small fiberglass skiffs, are launched from mother ships stationed far offshore that have plotted the course of their unsuspecting prey. Pirates are armed with rocket-propelled grenades and machine guns, and they are equipped with satellite phones, GPS and small-boat radar. Merchant vessels -- the lumbering, slow-moving beasts of world commerce -- are soft targets; except for a few fire hoses blasting outboard, they are defenseless.
Pirates surround the target vessel like a pack of wolves, shoot up the ship, and if the master of the vessel is unable to evade capture, they swarm barefooted and screaming over the vessel and take control. With a gun at his back, the master is ordered to steer the ship into a den along the Somali coast.
To date, no ship owner has refused to pay ransom to release its ship and employees. No one wants blood on the decks. Yet it is the payment of ransom -- $30 million so far this year just to Somali pirates -- that encourages more attacks and fuels Somalia's fastest-growing industry.Colin Darch, master of the Svitzer Korsakov, and his crew were held for 47 days after his vessel was hijacked this year in the Gulf of Aden, the vital sea lane north of Somalia through which 20,000 ships pass annually. His company paid a $678,000 ransom. Reached at sea, he told me that "without money, the militia would have carried out their threat to kill us and wreck the ship. ... Their patience was running out [and] perhaps the next step would have been to kill or mutilate one of us." When a U.S. Navy destroyer appeared on the horizon like the cavalry, Darch and his crew huddled in the anchor locker, expecting they would be rescued. Instead, the warship fired its guns over the Svitzer Korsakov at a terrorist target on land.
Thus far, only the French have taken any military action against pirates. Following the hijacking of the luxury yacht Ponant in April, French President Nicolas Sarkozy sent commandos into Somalia, resulting in the capture of six pirates. It was a unilateral act that was applauded by many in the maritime industry. Such Rambo tactics, however, are undeniably risky when hostages are being held.
The sole military option is to take out the mother ships from which most of the pirates' attacks are launched. Their identities and positions are known. Many seafarers wonder how serious piracy must become before action is taken.
John S. Burnett is the author of "Dangerous Waters, Modern Piracy and Terror on the High Seas." modernpiracy.com

Ethiopia's Opposition demands bring the troops home from Somalia

Medeshi Oct 3 , 2008

Ethiopia's Opposition demands bring the troops home from Somalia
Ethiopia's fractious political opposition is planning a unified parliamentary campaign to demand a complete withdrawal of Ethiopian troops from Somalia, the Voice of America reports. Almost all of Ethiopia's varies opposition parties have been against the invasion of Somalia from the onset and the war in Somalia is costing Ethiopia enormously both in blood and treasure.
Almost two years after the invasion of Somalia by Ethiopian troops, the situation in Somalia is getting worse by the day.

(File Photo: Ethiopian Troops in Somalia)

Analysts have been writing recently that the insurgents are getting the upper hand and Ethiopia is making the situation worse.
According to VOA, Ethiopian Democratic Party sent a letter to Prime Minister Meles Zenawi saying the sacrifice of lives and scarce financial resources had become unbearable. Party President Lidetu Ayalew says after nearly two years of propping up Somalia's weak transitional government, it is time for Ethiopian troops to go home and demand international organizations such as the United Nations and the African Union take responsibility.
"We are sacrificing a lot. It takes our expenses, we are losing many soldiers there, when you see the international media, our image is in danger ... There must be one point to end our presence in Somalia. We believe the A.U. and U.N. should play their role, but now it is Ethiopia that is holding the whole burden," he said.
"The government has irresponsibly refused to account on these two pertinent issues relating to the Ethiopian army's deployment to Somalia," he said. "Every country's parliament, even the public at large, has a right to know what its involvement is costing in terms of life and resources. We have been kept in the dark."
Beyene Petros (United Ethiopian Democratic Front)
"No Somali would consider Ethiopia as a savior. They all thought, all of them thought Ethiopia was invading Somalia and they would fight Ethiopia as long as they could," Demeksa said. "They resolved to fight against us, and they are fighting, and in my opinion they are winning."
Bulcha Demeksa (Oromo Federalist Democratic Movement)
"I am saying cut your losses and get out. The international community is not going to rescue the Somali people, they have had three years to do so, everybody has stood on sideline and watched the people and defense forces suffering, and we think it is never too late, and the PM [prime minister] is looking for ways to withdraw forces, and my advice is to do it as quickly as possible, and not wait for the international community to react,"

Temesgen Zewde (Unity, Democracy and Justice Party)
"I do not believe we are mired in Somalia. We can get out any time. We will not. This is what the prime minister said. We are not in a quagmire, can get out anytime,"
Foreign Ministry spokesman Wahide Belay

Source : Nazret

Failure of seasonal rains in Ethiopia

Medeshi Oct 3 , 2008
Failure of seasonal rains in Ethiopia
Maso Aliyi mourns his dead child, Shibre Aliyi, at his home in the village of Kararo in Ethiopia on Thursday. Shibre had spent almost a month at a therapeutic feeding center. A lack of rain in the main February to April wet season has left at least 75,000 Ethiopian children under age 5 at risk from malnutrition, according to the U.N.'s Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, which also asserts that some eight million people need urgent food relief and another 4.6 million need emergency assistance.
(Stephen Morrison / EPA)

‘Into Africa’ with the Military’s “Africom”

Medeshi Oct 3, 2008

‘Into Africa’ with the Military’s “Africom”
by Greg Palkot
A fully armed “battle-rattle”-ed Marines Humvee patrol winding through the African desert and peering into bunkers looking for militants…and weapons.
Army instructors firing off blanks from the brush around a foot squad of African soldiers training them in the art of fending off an ambush.
And Navy Seabees, sweating in the blistering African sun, digging and installing a water distribution system for impoverished villagers.
done

Just three views of the new US military command Africom which we’ve had a chance to take in during the past week, traveling around this diverse continent. October 1st was the “roll-out” day for the command but we wanted to get a jump on things for Fox so we headed down to Africa a bit early.
Previously, Africa had been covered by parts of three different US military commands, and while there have been a variety of programs and operations conducted in Africa by the Pentagon, the feeling was that the place got short-changed.
As the commander of Africom, 4-star Army General (and veteran of numerous global hot spots including 1990’s Somalia) William “Kip” Ward told me, “The continent of Africa is important to global security, our security, the stability of the world.”
In addition, the thinking has been that more than just the military guys needed to be involved in the project. Folks from the State Department and other government agencies needed to pitch in as well.
Former African ambassador and Ward’s civilian number two Mary Yates explained, “It gives us the opportunity to bring the assets of the US military in a supporting role of those needs.”
Presto…Africom. A “combatant” command with a difference. Yes, if there’s a military operation that needs to be conducted in Africa they can run it. But time and time again in my discussions officials there stressed the command was less about war fighting and more about war prevention.
Our first stop was the central African country of Uganda, better known to most people as the home base for the 1970s cruel and despotic leader Idi Amin. Now it’s a colorful country with a growing economy and a friendly attitude towards the US. The US military runs a number of training program for local troops , including some at base not far from the infamous Entebbe airport.
As the US Army Lieutenant in charge of the trainers there explained to me the troops were “dynamite” students and they really picked up on the real-life lessons. In addition to that ambush drill I mentioned earlier they were taught how to approach and take out a fortified bunker as well breaching a barbed wire defense.
The idea is help the locals create a more stable and secure environment with the aim of either keeping bad guys out. Or having African troops (and not the US) deal with the bad guys themselves. “In a hundred years,” one offical noted to me, “If Africom hasn’t fought a single battle in Africa we will have done our job.”
Then it was on to the eastern African country of Djibouti, home to the only US military base in Africa, Camp Lemonier, Joint Combined Task Force Horn of Africa. The area has also (and seems still to be ) home to a number of terrorists. Usama bin Laden was in nearby Sudan in the 90’s. Across the Gulf of Aden the USS Cole was hit in 2000 and there have been terror incidents there ever since. And Somalia, just 12 miles away, remains the hideout its believed for Al Qaeda and Islamists.
If there is ANY “direct action” against any foes of the US in Africa it comes from here. Not so much that Marine patrol I noted earlier which is more security than “kill and capture.” But activities we did not have the chance to take in as its not in the direct Africom remit : Special Force, CIA and other civilian agencies tracking and targeting extremists.
More of the work in Djibouti (and of Africom) is of the “indirect” kind, like once again training up militaries like Ethiopian troops who now happen to be in Somalia quelling Islamists. And even more, civil affairs projects, like that Seabee-built water system. We also dropped in on a school that had been fixed up in their off hours by troops from Djibouti . This is full scale “hearts and minds” stuff. As one Africom official explained to me, “we can call in that chit later.” Meaning information, help, tips.
As we fought to get on the air amid all the other news on Wednesday October 1st with reports about the launch of the command there was other media reporting based on the Washington DC Africom presentation. I’m not sure all the Africom folks were pleased with the coverage. First of all there was more interest in the latest piracy incident off the coast of Somalia involving a Ukrainian arms ship.
But also complaints which had been piling up over the last year or so about the command were dredged out again : That the mission wasn’t focused; that it was aimed less at satisfying Africa and more the US strategic, political and economic needs on the continent; that it stepped on the turf of aid workers in Africa.
Concerns echoed by Africans. For example there are worries that the US will be opening up a new front in the War on Terror across the continent. As Ugandan newspaper editor Daniel Kalinaki explained to us, “Having an American base can make you a target for terror groups.”
All those kinds of concerns forced Africom to give up on the idea for now of basing its headquarters in Africa proper (it couldn’t find an appropriate country willing to host it) and the so the HQ is in Stuttgart.
But everybody at Africom I talked to is convinced that over time they can win Africans over and that many countries and leaders in Africa are already supportive of the mission.
As for Congress (which cut the initial budget for the command) and the rest of Washington, the command, I think, probably SHOULD play up what’s in it for the US. There’s a lot :
The terror threat from Africa is very real. A new Al Qaeda chapter has opened up in northern Africa just ready to export carnage to American targets.
Maintaining access to natural resources on the continent (by 2015 25% of our oil will come from here).
As well as keeping up with the global rival “Jones”’s China and Russia moving in here big time.
Plus keeping bad stuff like disease drugs and illegal immigration from being transferred from there to our shores.
And, oh yes, helping the African people. Who are in need of and worthy of that help. We were so taken by the people of Uganda. Friendly, mellow, hard-working, handsome. Ditto the very cute and studious kids of Djibouti…the next generation of Africa…the ones we ll have to be dealing with for decades to come.
As Specialist Samuel Fitch of a US Army civil affairs which helped out in that school fix-up project said, “It feels good. That’s what we’re doing it for, the kids. They’re the future.”

Somalia coast problem is foreign made

Medeshi Oct 3, 2008

Somalia coast problem is foreign made

By Tedla Asfaw
The so called Somali Transitional Government of Abdullahi Yusuf is asking Russia to take all the necessary actions on the Somali gunmen who hijacked the Ukrainian ship with twenty Ukrainian and Russian crewmen on board week ago. Who are these hijackers? The Somali coast for the last twenty years has been a free coast for the United Fish Looters (UFL) to come and fish on Somali coast and profit an estimated $300 million per year at the expense of local fishermen.

(Photo : A. Yussuf shopping in London )
The local Somalis organized a vigilante groups to scare away the UFL and they were not successful. These looters are carrying bogus flags of different countries and carry fake licenses given by former Somali officials one of whom is Abduillhi Yusuf the current president of Somalia in Mogadishu who personally profited.
Somali coast has also become a damping ground for toxic wastes and the United Nation which calls to fight piracy never addressed the issue of Somalis who lost livelihood to the well organized looters and did not take any action also on foreign companies that polluted the coast of Somalia and endangered the lives of many people.
Currently the Somalis has set up a strong thousand armed men who are moving on small boats to hijack ships and demand money. Some countries negotiate and pay and recently France sent a commando and rescue its people and capturing some of the hijackers.
The Ukrainian ship is rather interesting because of the 33 Russian made battle tanks it carry and the destination of the cargo that is still debatable, Kenya, South Sudan and Ethiopia the possibilities. Recently Meles Zenawi was heard saying that he is worried about "piracy" on Somali coast. He might be worried this time more because he might lose the tanks if it indeed was destined for his war in Somalia as Somali Islamic fighters alleged and call the hijackers to burn the ship.
The American war ship is following closely the week old sea drama and buying time for the Russian ship which is still far to take on the Somali gunmen. From previous Russian rescue missions of hostages, the one ended up gassing everyone in Moscow might be the conclusion of this week old drama if Abdullahi Yusuf request is answered.
Such action will not stop future hijacking by gunmen in the more than 3,200 km coast of Somalia. The problem on the sea is not different from the problem of Somalia and unless Somalia is left alone from all outsiders and find its way to function as a country and control its resources the Somali coast will not be safe for anyone.

What is to be done about the world’s least-governed state?

Medeshi

Oct 3 , 2008

Somalia Piracy and much worse
From The Economist print edition

What is to be done about the world’s least-governed state?
Get article background
THE azure waters at the foot of the Red Sea lapping southwards round the Horn of Africa are now the most dangerous in the world. This year pirates have captured more than 60 ships. Recently a Ukrainian ship carrying 33 tanks was captured by Somali buccaneers (see article). The reason for this swirl of maritime outlawry can be found on the nearest shore, in Somalia.
Until the world’s most comprehensively failed state acquires the barest modicum of order and government, the seas beside it will be a paradise for pirates and a menace to passengers, crew and cargo, even for ships sailing 300 miles offshore. Yet maritime outrages, though they help remind the world of the disaster that is Somalia, are only one reason to do something about the place. A more important one is that Somalia’s people do not enjoy a scrap of security, let alone any of the material benefits of a modern state. And a final one is that the outside world helped tip Somalia into chaos.
The prescriptions for dealing with piracy are simple enough. Governments must co-operate more energetically to face down pirates and, where necessary, blast them out of the water. A coalition of countries already has a naval task-force in the area, mainly to tackle terrorism; its numbers should be bumped up and a sea lane that can be properly monitored should be defined. Ships taking food to Somalia for the UN must have a naval escort. The EU should strengthen its tiny naval cell that co-ordinates air and sea activity. The UN, along with the African Union (AU), should organise a coast guard to watch Somalia’s shore. The Gulf states, in particular Saudi Arabia, should fulfil their vague promises to help pay for Somalia’s recovery.
But the harder, underlying problem is Somalia itself. With no proper government since 1991, it has been a bloody kaleidoscope of competing clans and fiefs. More than 1m, in a population once around 10m, have fled abroad; this year alone, the UN reckons, some 160,000 have been uprooted from Mogadishu, the capital, which has lost about two-thirds of its inhabitants over the years. The country is too dangerous for foreign charities, diplomats or journalists to function there permanently. Thousands of angry, rootless, young Somalis are proving vulnerable to the attractions of fundamentalist Islam in the guise of al-Qaeda and similar jihadist brands. The cash from piracy is probably fuelling the violence.
In recent times Somalia has known order only briefly, in 2006, when Islamists known as the Islamic Courts Union took over. Unfortunately next-door Ethiopia, egged on by the Americans, intervened to oust them. A “transition federal government” has totally failed to impose itself. A feeble AU force has tried in vain to help. With the UN unable to drum up even half the heralded force supposed to keep the peace in Sudan’s ravaged Darfur region, no one has the guts or cash to send a serious force to bring order, let alone justice, to Somalia.
And yet outsiders could still help Somalis to help themselves. A “dialogue” that started in nearby Djibouti between most of the warring factions has been going on intermittently for more than a year; the more moderate Islamists from the Courts Union must be brought in, even if the harder-line affiliates of al-Qaeda cannot be. The UN, Western governments and those in the region have a moral duty not to give up trying to bring Somalis together. Besides, wretched as it is, Somalia can cause a lot of trouble—on land and at sea. It is a disaster that the rest of the world cannot shrug off.

On Maternal Mortality, Why Africa Falls So Far Behind

Medeshi
(Photo:Edna Adan Maternity Hospital in Somaliland )
On Maternal Mortality, Why Africa Falls So Far Behind
By Edna Adan Ismail
Created Oct 3 2008
· Access to Abortion
· Contraception
· Maternal Health
· Women’s Rights
· attended birth
· Birth Control
· Childbirth
· family planning
· maternal mortality
· safe abortion
· unsafe abortion
A very distraught old woman came to Edna Adan Maternity Hospital in Hargeisa, Somaliland, appealing to us to help her transport to the hospital a woman who had given birth five days earlier and who still had the placenta inside her. Those of us at the hospital are not sure how this could be possible and we ask her again whether she means five hours. She is sure about the number of days, and quotes the day the woman had delivered which, indeed, was five days earlier. She also tells us that the woman may not be alive by the time we get to her.

Safe Motherhood Project At WorkWe prepared the ambulance, put in our emergency obstetric kit and set out towards the home at the opposite end of town from our hospital. We come to a hut with quite a few neighbors and onlookers standing around.

Before we get to the patient, we could have been guided to the woman by the smell coming from inside the hut. We find a woman who has bled for several days, is very infected, febrile, dehydrated, has no recordable blood pressure and a weak, rapid pulse. We cannot understand how she could have survived this long in this condition. Answers to our questions would come later, but right now, we needed to get an IV line going, and once in, we put her in the ambulance and headed for the hospital where blood transfusions and medical care would be ready for her. We also brought along the baby.

Once she picked up, we got the placenta out, started her on high doses of antibiotics and the woman miraculously recovered and went home a week later.

Our burning question was why did they wait for five days before they looked for help when the placenta refused to come out after the baby was born?

The unfortunate answers were: (1) We thought we would wait and hoped that it would come out later. (2) When it took too long to come out, her husband suggested that they try Somali Traditional methods to get the placenta out. (3) When this failed, they tried spiritual chants and prayers. (4) By the third day, they feared that if they report this to the hospitals, the old woman who had attended the delivery would be denounced to the government. (5) Finally, the woman became so ill that they feared they would not be able to afford the cost of the medicines she would need to treat her.

Luckily, they got the courage to come to us and we were able to treat her free of charge, although we had our conditions for this free treatment: the woman who had attended the delivery would have to agree to spend five days at our hospital [1] to be shown how to conduct a normal delivery and to know which conditions to refer immediately. To this, she agreed, and hopefully, this situation never will be repeated.

This was just one example of what practicing midwifery in our part of the world entails. My theory is that women in Somaliland die because of ignorance on their part and on the part of those assisting them. Poverty is a strong factor that prevents women from seeking help because they convince themselves that they cannot afford the cost of modern medicine and would rather consult the local traditional healer who often causes more complications.

Pregnancy, Childbirth Still Killing Women

In 1945, diplomats representing the countries of the world at the end of the Second World War gathered in New York and proposed the formation of a global health organization. In April 1948, the constitution of the World Health Organization [2] was passed, with its first article stating, "Health is a fundamental Human Right."

Sixty years later, that noble declaration seems to have had little effect on the maternal mortality rate of women in the developing countries. The women continue to die of causes that have been eliminated in countries where efficient, safe and adequate health care have been made available for their women.

As far as African women are concerned, we seem to have very few rights, particularly in the area of safe reproductive health care. We fare the worst compared to women in other continents. In my 48-year experience as a midwife, I see very little improvement in the conditions under which our women progress through their pregnancies and childbirth. It's a situation that shocks me even more today when I witness the advances that have been made in medical care elsewhere during the past half-century.

Why Africa Falls Behind

What leads the women of our continent to their graves during pregnancy and childbirth? As I describe below, the reasons fall into six categories: nutrition, education, high fertility, female genital mutilation, improper care at delivery and inadequate health facilities.

Nutrition: Sub-Saharan countries are affected by increasing degradation of the environment -- which we commonly call desertification -- due to frequent droughts, cutting down of trees, soil erosion and poverty. Superimposed on this are frequent wars and instability that cause displacement of peoples and which negatively affects the nutritional status of those living off the land.

While little girls are the mothers of tomorrow, we all know that they are fed the leftovers from whatever the family is eating. If lucky, she occasionally gets a bone to nibble at. During her childhood, who thinks about the growth of the bones of these little girls? Does anyone worry that her growth may become stunted because of chronic malnutrition and anemia? That she might develop a contracted pelvis? What will happen when she gets married and her narrow pelvis cannot permit the passage of the babies she will be expected to bear and produce? How many women have access to a health facility that can perform a Caesarean section to save the lives of the baby and its mother before the labor becomes obstructed?

Education: Quite often, when a family has to decide which of their children can be sent to school, it is often the girls who are left behind. We find that illiteracy affects the health and survival outcome of women. The lower their education level, the higher their risk of health problems, including those associated with their reproductive life.

An illiterate woman is not able to seek her rights because she is not even aware that she has any rights at all. She considers herself "owned;" first by her family, then by her husband and later by his sons.

High Fertility: Once the girl is married, immediate and frequent fertility is expected of her without taking into consideration whether or not her body can take care of the baby she will conceive. Our women, therefore, produce as many children as they can to ensure their place in their new home. In my work, I often witness women having baby number 9 or 10, and also some having baby number 12, 13, 14, 15 or 16 and, once, baby number 21!

FGM: As if all her other misfortunes were not enough in themselves, harmful traditional practices such as female genital mutilation (FGM) are performed on them and affect the health of women and children in many African countries, including mine. FGM affects and damages the perineum and the pelvic floor muscles of women and is a major cause of laceration of the perineum during childbirth, as well as damage to the urethra and rectum resulting in fistula formation.

This is among the most tragic situations and has shocked me so much that I became the first Somali woman to publicly cry out against FGM in 1976, well before those who would like us to believe that they are fighting against a new enemy that they have discovered. Thirty years later, even though umpteen campaigns have been held and many have joined the struggle, millions of little girls continue to be cut, mutilated and affected.

To show the extent of the problem, I developed a study at the Edna Adan Maternity Hospital on the status of women who come to our clinic and FGM. Regretfully, and contrary to anecdotal reports stating that there has been a decline in the practice, we discovered that 97 percent of the women attending our prenatal clinic have some form of FGM, and 98 percent of them have the most severe form of it. I am still working on the final results of this report, but it is clear that there has to be an FGM strategy that is different and more effective than that which has been used in the past.

Time of Delivery: Women having babies who are at a time of their greatest need for skilled medical or midwifery assistance are often at the mercy of relatives or other individuals who have received no or insufficient training in the care of women during childbirth. The woman does not know nor seek proper medical care because she does not know that this is her right. Many women die of obstetrical mismanagement with her relatives blaming her misfortune on "evil spirits" or "the evil eye of other women who were jealous of her baby."

Health Facilities: The health facilities are so ill-equipped and poorly staffed that even if women get taken there, there is very little that can be done for them. More often than not, women arrive at these health facilities when their situation is too advanced and cannot be helped. How can infections be avoided when many health facilities have no water, gloves, disinfectants, sterilizers or dressings?

Charting a Better Path
Delegating women to a second-class status does not necessarily raise men to a first-class status. When when they do, they are denying their sisters, wives and daughters the education, decision-making and the possibility to rise to their fullest potential. In short, men lose when they prevent women from becoming full partners in all the challenges that life brings.
The prevention of maternal mortality is the basic right of all women and must be made a priority in all developing countries. The urgency of the situation warrants vastly heightened attention. Otherwise, the pledges and statements of health as a human right will continue to be words printed on paper made from the wood of the trees that have been cut down -- and thus only contributing to more degradation of the environment, poverty and misery.
This article was first published by On The Issues magazine [3].